Posted: 10:00 a.m. Monday, April 15, 2013
By Will Chambers
There's no perfect assessor, but perhaps the most accurate barometer of both actual and potential talent at the high school level is the McDonald's All-American identifier. In the 35 years that this distinction has been awarded (including 2013 recruits), Duke is second in the nation (and by a pretty healthy margin) with 56 McAA recruits, hardly reflecting a disadvantage in the talent department. (North Carolina is first with 67.)
In the past 25 years, to use Klosterman's time frame, Duke has seen 46 McDonald's All-Americans to UNC's 47. (Of those 46, by the way, only 26 have ever played in a Final Four, compared to 33 for UNC. So, who's underperforming with the talent they've been given?)
In the 15 years that the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) has been in existence, Duke has taken 32 McDonald's All-Americans, with an average national ranking of 17th. UNC has taken 29 McDonald's All-Americans over that span, with an average national ranking of 16th. Where's the talent discrepancy there?
Klosterman hypothesizes a game between the 12 best Duke players at their professional peaks versus the 12 best UNC players at the same apex. I think we can all agree that this would be a rout. But the better comparison would be for Klosterman to pit the 12 best Duke players during their senior year of high school versus the 12 best UNC players at the same age. I think he'd then find the talent disparity not all that disparate.
I'm not saying that, by and large, the better players haven't chosen Chapel Hill--they have. Just that Coach K isn't exactly stuck picking from DurhamAcademy's JV squad.
In fact, to insinuate that K won his championships with minimal talent is simply fallacious. Both his '91 and '10 championship teams included 6 McDonald's All-Americans, and the '01 team had 7. The '92 team had only 4, but was arguably better than the '91 squad. (Dean Smith's two championship teams included 6 McAAs each. The 2005 Heels had 5, and the 2009 Heels had 8.)
These teams saw big-time recruits like Grant Hill, Christian Laettner, and Carlos Boozer. They included Mr. Basketball for the states of Michigan (Battier), Louisiana (Duhon), and Illinois (Scheyer). Bobby Hurley led the No. 1 high school team in the nation and was named one of the top 10 New Jersey high school basketball players of the century. Kyle Singler was Player of the Year in Oregon and the top-rated small forward in the nation as a high-schooler. Duke is hardly landing non-factors on the high school level.
This doesn't even include recruits like Mr. Basketball of Illinois, Chris Collins, or Mr. Basketball of New York State, Elton Brand; or Quin Snyder, two-time Washington State Player of the Year and leader of the No. 1 high school team in the country; or Parade Magazine's national prep Player of the Year, Danny Ferry--all of whom failed to win national championships at Duke. (Krzyzewski has his share of "squandered talent" as well.)
It's easy to talk about all of the talent coming through Chapel Hill after we have watched them blossom into All-Stars, Olympians, and NBA Champions. But the reality is that the talent going in to these programs is relatively equal. Before they were professionals, these players were all part of a large pool of raw high school talent accessed by both programs. The great disparity lies in the talent that comes out of these programs, a disparity that is largely unconnected with anything that happened in high school or in utero.
Michael Jordan, James Worthy, Rasheed Wallace, Antawn Jamison, Ty Lawson, and Danny Green were not who we now know them to be when they showed up as freshmen in Chapel Hill, anymore than were Josh McRoberts (No. 1 RSCI, 2005), Austin Rivers (No. 2 RSCI, 2011), Greg Paulus (No. 13, 2005), or Casey Sanders (No. 16, 1999). Something happened for these players between McDonald's All-American and NBA superstar: college. So, while the talent coming out of these programs may be fairly unequal, that's an entirely separate discussion from which program is landing more talent on the front end.
Yet, somehow, the notion of Duke's inferior talent has become as ingrained in popular sentiment as the myth that Coach K is in the Final Four year after year (it's been twice in the past 12 seasons, by the way). The notion is so commonplace, in fact, that it seems a person possessing such an anti-establishment streak as Klosterman would have already formed a natural aversion to it.