Posted: 10:00 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2013
By Bill C.
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here. Or just skip to the words. I won't be offended. (Okay, I'll only be a little offended.)
Missouri 36, Florida 17
|Close %||88.0%||STANDARD DOWNS|
|Field Position %||16.7%||50.7%||Success Rate||33.3%||54.4%|
|Close Success Rate||27.1%||46.4%||Success Rate||19.1%||30.4%|
|Close Success Rate||34.8%||57.6%||Turnover Pts||13.3||10.2|
|Close PPP||0.44||0.56||Turnover Pts Margin||-3.0||+3.0|
|Line Yards/carry||2.54||3.04||Q1 S&P||0.502||0.942|
|Close Success Rate||20.0%||36.1%|
|Close PPP||0.08||0.73||1st Down S&P||0.594||1.331|
|Close S&P||0.278||1.095||2nd Down S&P||0.630||1.018|
|SD/PD Sack Rate||14.3% / 22.2%||0.0% / 0.0%||3rd Down S&P||0.161||0.721|
|Projected Pt. Margin: Missouri +36.0 | Actual Pt. Margin: Missouri +19|
1. There are a couple different ways to win field position. One is to pin an opponent deep and tilt the field in your favor. The other is to just never allow the opponent to move the ball. The latter is kind of cheating (when it comes to field position); Mizzou did the latter. Florida and Missouri were almost dead even in terms of starting field position, but Mizzou quickly and consistently moved into Florida field position; Florida just went three-and-out five times.
2. Thirty-five pass attempts, 50 net yards. Let's put 0.08 points per play (UF's passing average) into perspective: It would take Florida 12-13 passes to gain one single point through the air. It would take Florida nine passes to gain what Missouri averaged in one. From yesterday's Numerical:
[Michael] Sam and the Tiger defense sacked Florida quarterback Tyler Murphy six times in all during the Tigers' 36-17, could-have-been-so-much-worse win over the Gators. On 35 pass attempts, Murphy was also hurried eight times, had one pass picked, saw four others broken up, and gained a total of 50 net yards, nine more than Missouri gained on its first play of the game, a pass from backup quarterback Maty Mauk to L'Damian Washington.
I understand that Murphy isn't that great. I understand that Florida's passing game struggled mightily against LSU, too. But it didn't struggle like this. And E.J. Gaines didn't even play.
On the other side of the ball, a 36 percent success rate throwing the ball isn't that good. But you probably already knew that Mizzou wasn't incredibly efficient through the air thanks to Maty Mauk's 50 percent completion rate. In the post-game interviews, Gary Pinkel almost chuckled a bit while pointing out that Mauk likes to go downfield quite a bit. As dcrockett17 mentioned this morning, that probably means we're going to watch him learn a few lessons regarding which passing windows are actually available to him. But with more time and better chemistry, we could see a pass attack that is a) not as efficient as the one led by James Franklin and b) quite a bit more explosive. Well, we already saw that on Saturday -- 0.73 PPP passing against Florida is much better than the success rate is bad -- but we should still see the success rates creep up as time passes. If Mauk can get to 60 percent in the completion rate while still looking downfield this much ... yeah, I'll take that.
3. Domination in the trenches. Missouri sacked Tyler Murphy once for every seven standard downs pass attempts and twice for every nine passing downs pass attempts. Florida didn't sack Maty Mauk. Missouri averaged 3.04 line yards per carry against a defense allowing about 2.5. Florida's offense averaged about 2.5. Obviously Florida's defensive line has been quite banged up, but the Gators' offensive line is not. Missouri has established that its line play is among the best in the SEC. The Florida game just reaffirmed it.
4. Tackles for loss: Mizzou 11, Florida 4. I just wouldn't have guessed that. Such a great performance by this defense. LSU held Florida to 3.5 yards per play and 240 overall. Mizzou held Florida to 2.5 and 151. Without Gaines.
5. I mean ... I don't say this to be mean, but ... I look at this box score, and I think Missouri played South Florida, not Florida. Even when it's working, Florida's style of play under Will Muschamp willfully removes all margin for error. If your defense suffers some injuries or simply isn't completely dominant, the offense, built for field position more than points, just can't pick up the slack. Murderball requires outstanding defense; Florida no longer has that thanks to the injuries, and the offense has no confidence, no identity, and no flow. Jeff Driskel probably wouldn't have helped much on Saturday; hell, Matt Jones, the injured running back, might not have, either. There was minimal room to run, there was no room (or time) to pass, and in the end, this was really close to becoming something a lot more dominant than 36-17.
It felt really good typing that. This year is fun. We should dominate like this more often.