“Talking the Tropics With Mike”: Hurricane “Dora” over E. Pacific

Bands of strong convection are moving across parts of the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico associated with tropical waves but no surface development is expected.  The wave over the SW Gulf/Yucatan appears to be the remnants of last week's "Bret".

With two tropical storms last week - "Bret" & "Cindy" - this rather stunning stat from Dr. Phil Klotzbac: there have been 164 tropical cyclones over the Atlantic Basin without a Cat. 3/4/5 hitting the U.S. - the last one was Cat. 3 "Wilma" in 2005 that hit S. Fl. in Oct.  The previous longest stretch of tropical cycones without a U.S. hit was 70 - "Bret", 1999 until "Charley", 2004.

Water vapor imagery:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Caribbean/SW Atlantic satellite:

There continues to be an unseasonably early strong "wave train" parading off the coast of Africa, & we might see an attempt at tropical development from one of these waves by mid July or so....

Wind shear analysis:

Meanwhile... in the E. Pacific... "Dora" has formed just west of Mexico & became a hurricane early Mon.  While there will be some heavy rain & rough seas/surf on the SW coast of Mexico through Mon., a direct hit is not expected as "Dora" eventually turns more west.

Many locals might remember "Dora" - the last landfalling hurricane on the First Coast in Sept., 1964.  The name was retired from the Atlantic Basin list of names but remains active on the E. Pacific list.