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“Talking the Tropics With Mike”: Stalled front across Fl... sheared wave into the Caribbean

A stalled front remains draped across N. Fl. stretching west across the Northern Gulf.... & east well across the SW Atlantic.  Sometimes stalled fronts can be the genesis region for surface low pressure that can develop into tropical cyclones.  I don't see such a scenario right now, but keep an eye on any persistent clusters of convection that might form.

Water vapor imagery shows tropical moisture well entrenced across Jax & nearby areas:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Caribbean/SW Atlantic satellite shows a strongly sheared tropical wave over the Eastern Caribbean - no develoment expected:

There continues to be an unseasonably early strong "wave train" parading off the coast of Africa, & we might see an attempt at tropical development from one of these waves by early to mid July or so....

Wind shear analysis:

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