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“Talking the Tropics With Mike”: Two areas to keep an eye on

We have two areas over the Atlantic Basin to keep an eye on over the next 7-10 days:

(1) SW Gulf of Mexico & Bay of Campeche - gradual tropical development possible through the weekend/early next week.  This can be a "hot bed' this time of year & any development would primarily impact Mexico &/or Texas.....

(2) Eastern & Central Atlantic where a decent tropical wave ('99-L') has a good chance to develop into a tropical cyclone.  Still early on either of these systems but it reminds us to always be prepared.

Meanwhile... weak low pressure + a surface trough of low pressure extends from SE Ga. across N. Fl. into the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  The result is a lot of rain - some heavy - over N. Fl. & Ga. west all along the Gulf Coast but no organized surface development so little, if any concern regarding tropical development.

Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District:

A tropical wave has entered the Caribbean.  This might be what tries to develop in about 5 days or so near the Yucatan Peninsula &/or SW Gulf of Mexico as shear weakens:

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the persistent stream of African Saharan dust (orange & red) over the Central & Eastern Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery shows moisure returning to Florida....

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear)...

The Atlantic Basin typically starts to become more active in August.  The map below was prepared by Action News Jax Certified Broadcast Meteorologist Garrett Bedenbaugh courtesy data documented by Dr. Phil Klotzbach:

The W. Pacific......  "Noru" will make a hit on Southern Japan over the weekend perhaps as a Cat. 1 typhoon:

"Noru":

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