The price of crude oil per barrel has fallen significantly.  Last week it traded between $95 and $100 per barrel, and this Wednesday it traded close to $92 and still falling.

Gregg Laskoski, Senior Petroleum Analyst for GasBuddy.com, said September 11^th of last week seems like a long time ago already.

“The U.S. economy right now is seeing a supply that exceeds demand….believe it or not,” Laskoski said.

He said it may reflect the weakness of the economy, but at the same time it could be evidence of a higher level of stability in the Middle East compared to what we saw last week during the attacks on U.S. embassies.

Laskoski also attributes the recent dip in crude oil prices on this week’s announcements from the Department of Energy:

-There’s been a massive increase in crude oil inventory.

-Gasoline inventory is about the same as last week.

-Refinery output shows a very significant increase.  East Coast refineries have made the greatest gains.  Gulf Coast refineries continue to come back online since Hurricane Isaac struck late August.

“All of that bodes well for consumers today,” Laskoski said.

Another contributing factor Laskoski mentioned is refineries are making the switch to winter blend gasoline, which requires fewer additives and is cheaper to produce.

It has to be made available to consumers no later than October 1^st.

“Of course, it’s very possible that it’s already making its way into the market this week and next week,” Laskoski said.

Laskoski thinks the defining factor for the long term outlook on gas prices falls in the conflict between Iran and Israel.

“Anything that should develop there is going to have an impact on crude oil prices,” he said.

“And conversely, any news that does not emerge from there is also a positive.  No news is good news when it comes to the Middle East.”

“If things remain relatively quiet, that’s going to be very good news for all of us.  If that should happen, then I think we will see these gasoline prices continue to moderate downward from now through the remainder of the fourth quarter.”

As of Wednesday, the average price for a gallon of gasoline in Jacksonville is $3.74, down from $3.77 one week ago.

The national average is $3.85, and that’s down from $3.86 a week ago.

(Numbers provided by GasBuddy.com)