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Posted: 12:19 p.m. Monday, April 14, 2008
By Jamie Dupree
It's going to take something big to knock the controversy over Barack Obama's "bitter" small town comments out of the minds of the media right now.
It's just too juicy of a story to ignore.
Last night, it was the lead item on the evening news for NBC, CBS and ABC.
About the best thing that happens today for Obama is that the Pope arrives in the US. That will take away some space in the papers and on the air from the story.
On the other hand, Hillary Clinton and to a certain extent, John McCain will look to keep this going. So will talk radio. Conservative talk radio has been handed an issue that they can go back to for months.
This is much like the Rev. Wright issue. While most Democrats are done with it, it's not going to go away on the GOP side. In other words, you will see this one again for November.
As for McCain, on Monday he labeled Obama's comments as "elitist" during a Washington, D.C. appearance and said he thought they were offensive to proud Americans of all stripes.
Right now, any edge that McCain can get on Obama is one he wants to take.
Meanwhile Clinton has seemed almost over eager in the desire to grab this issue and squeeze every drop of advantage from it.
While that may turn off some people, it is the way you win elections. You don't win by being nice. You don't win by letting people get off easy when they screw up. You go for the jugular and keep pushing.
One way to do that is put together a TV ad real quick on the issue and the Clinton people did just that. This is the copy provided by the Clinton campaign.
Narrator: "Barack Obama said that people in small towns 'cling to guns or religion ... as a way to explain their frustrations.' "
Woman 1: "I was very insulted by Barack Obama."
Man 1: "It just shows how out of touch Barack Obama is."
Woman 2: "I'm not clinging to my faith out of frustration and bitterness. I find that my faith is very uplifting."
Man 2: "The good people of Pennsylvania deserve a lot better than what Barack Obama said."
Woman 1: "Hillary does understand the citizens of Pennsylvania better."
Woman 3: "Hillary Clinton has been fighting for people like us her whole life."
How serious is this story? I'm still not sold on the idea that this could be a crushing blow for Obama - but then again, if he gets smashed next Tuesday in Pennsylvania, the media will be more than happy to pin the blame on the "bitter" comments of the Illinois Senator.
It could truly damage Obama in the ranks of the Reagan Democrats and in working class precincts. But, let's not jump to that yet. Show me what happens in PA and then we can talk about campaign/voter fallout.
Obama plays very well in the suburbs and the big cities.
He does not play as well in the exurbs and in rural areas.
Hillary has done very well with lunch bucket, working class Democrats.
Remember that she did the best in the Ohio primary in Mahoning County around Youngstown in the northeast of the state, an area that has many parallels to Pennsylvania.
Add in the not-so-subtle issue of race and you have a very flammable mixture that could work against Barack Obama in Pennsylvania.
Do I believe the American Research Group poll that shows Hillary up 20 points? That's probably too high. But the ARG poll from a week ago that showed Obama and Clinton tied was probably off as well.
Obama and Clinton have a very important debate tomorrow night. Luckily for Obama, the Pope is in Washington, D.C., so you can't have All Bitter, All The Time on the news.
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