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Posted: 9:51 p.m. Monday, April 28, 2008
By Jamie Dupree
We will talk a little bit about polls in this blog entry, but let's remind ourselves that the only numbers which really mean anything right now are the total number of delegates held by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Obama secured yet another superdelegate on Monday, getting the support of New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingamann.
"We must move the country in a dramatically new direction," Bingamann said in a statement. "I strongly believe Barack Obama is best positioned to lead the nation in that new direction."
Bingamann's endorsement now gives Obama a narrow edge in terms of endorsements by sitting U.S. Senators. Of course, what's more meaningful is that Bingamann moves Obama one vote closer to a majority for the Democratic nomination.
Hillary Clinton will get a superdelegate of her own today, when Gov. Mike Easley (D-NC) endorses her at an event in Raleigh. The surprise move comes a week before the North Carolina primary, as that state votes on the same day as Indiana, May 6.
As I like to say, I'm always skeptical about the power of endorsements, so we'll reserve judgment on whether this can shake things up in North Carolina. But it's certainly better for Clinton than having Easley jump on the Obama bandwagon.
In terms of polling data, a new poll out in Indiana on Monday showed Clinton with a 9 point lead in that state. Do we believe that? That's hard to say, since other polls had the race as a dead heat, with one giving Obama a slight lead.
The polls in North Carolina have had Obama in the lead by double digits. It will be interesting to see if that closes at all in coming days. The Rev. Wright story isn't helping, but is it hurting Obama?
Indiana and North Carolina are very important for Clinton and Obama - and for much the same reason.
If Obama can win a majority of delegates next Tuesday, even if he wins just one state, then the pressure starts to mount on Hillary to get out of the race.
If Hillary wins a majority of delegates, then she makes it easier on herself in the Superdelegate Derby. Every pledged delegate she gets means she needs one less superdelegate to reach a majority.
The superdelegate math might seem complicated, but really, it's still as basic as simple addition.
If you have more votes, you win.
Right now, that advantage is still with Barack Obama.
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