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Posted: 11:23 a.m. Thursday, March 20, 2008
By Jamie Dupree
It is not a good year to be a Republican in the US Congress, as the number of GOP lawmakers opting against a re-election run continues to rise, making it more and more difficult for the party to cut into Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.
The latest casualty is Congressman Tom Reynolds (R-NY), who just a few years ago seemed poised to be part of the GOP leadership in future years.
Instead, Reynolds got caught up in the Mark Foley Page scandal and barely won re-election in 2006. (In defense of Reynolds, he had warned superiors something was up - but in the media rush, he got painted as a bad actor.)
Reynolds becomes the 29th House Republican not to run for re-election. By contrast, only five Democrats in the House aren't seeking re-election - three of them are running for the US Senate.
Over in the Senate, it's the same story. Five GOP Senators aren't running for re-election. How many Democrats? Zero.
New York state may be a good example to use to showcase how the fortunes of Republicans have fallen in the Congress in recent years.
In 2000, there were 12 Republicans in the GOP delegation from the Empire State. Now there are only six - and two of them are retiring, Reynolds and Syracuse Congressman James Walsh, who narrowly survived a challenge two years ago.
Obviously, you want to be on the offense as the minority, challenging the party in charge and finding ways to cut into their majority. But the GOP right now is playing defense in the Congress, with few real opportunities to switch seats to their party.
It was earlier this month that the GOP lost the seat in Illinois that had been filled by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert. More of those "open" seats could go to the Democrats in coming months as well.
The Republicans are going through the same cycle that Democrats went through after they lost control of the House in the Republican Revolution of 1994. It can take years to get that majority back.
And I've pretty much decided that you don't win it back with better policies or better ideas for the most part. You win back a majority mainly because the other party screwed up.
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