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Posted: 7:28 a.m. Thursday, March 20, 2008
By Jamie Dupree
Maybe it's voters re-assessing the Presidential campaign both overall and more specifically on the Democratic side. Or maybe the back-and-forth between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is having a negative effect on the Democrats.
It's not odd for three-way political races to change dramatically when two of the candidates start beating each other over the head in public. The voters get turned off and then turn to the third party, who hasn't really been in the fight.
Maybe that's happening right now in the polls for John McCain, who has been on the sidelines while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have been going after each other.
(Warning - I am about to quote from polling data - you know my feeling about polls in this Democratic race, but at least it gives us some kind of snapshot to work with in reviewing where we stand at NCAA Tourney Time.)
A series of new state polls out this week from Survey USA show something that Democrats had hoped they would not see....and that was much different results when the race is Clinton v McCain than Obama v McCain.
For example, in Ohio, the new SUSA poll found Clinton leading McCain 50-44. But when you put Obama in against McCain, it was suddenly a lead for McCain, 50-43%.
In Missouri (another bellwether state) McCain and Clinton are neck and neck with McCain leading 48-46%. But when you put Obama in against McCain, McCain then leads by 14 points, 53-39%.
Ten days ago, McCain led Obama only by four points in Missouri, a state Obama narrowly won over Clinton.
In Kentucky - difficult territory for more liberal Democrats for sure - McCain leads Clinton by 10 points, 53-43%. Add Obama to the poll, and McCain leads by 36 points - that's not a typo. 64-28%.
Also, the new Gallup tracking poll has Clinton ahead of Obama 49-42%. This is the first time Clinton has been ahead since just after Super Tuesday.
Just ten days ago, Obama led Clinton 50-44 in the same poll, which has a 3% margin of error.
Why do you think Obama has gone down? Why do you think Obama fares worse than Clinton in important states like Ohio and Missouri?
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