With one game left to play the Jags only have one thing that isn’t wrapped up yet and that is the number one overall pick. They are guaranteed to finish no worst then the number two in this Aprils draft. Unfortunately the way the schedule works out the Jags will be hard pressed in getting to the number 1. Jags need to lose this week and hope Kansas City wins and they will claim the off-season’s top prize. Unfortunately KC will have to head into Denver and knock off a Bronco’s team that is still playing for a first round bye and a number 1 over seed. Not a likely scenario. Now a lot of people will say this is a bad draft and the number 1 overall pick doesn’t matter that much but I totally disagree.

See I’m looking at the Jags making a huge trade in order to build up top level draft picks for years to come. Just like St. Louis did last year. The rams were able to trade just a few spots down to the Redskins and get huge value in return. In order to do that they need the number 1 pick. The only way a team will trade up with the Jags and get big value in return is to get a franchise QB. There may be only one QB in this draft that teams will do that for. Depending on how the combine workouts go maybe Matt Barkley or Geno Smith will emerge as the top QB this year. That’s why it’s so important for the Jags to get ahead of the Chiefs in the draft.8 out of the last 10 years a QB went number 1 and Kansas City is one of those teams that could be looking for a QB. If the Chiefs select the franchise QB then the trade market for the Jags will dry up.

For example if Arizona wants to draft the top QB in this year’s draft but don’t think he will be there at 4 or 5 because teams like KC and Oakland will want a QB as well then they will give up a ton of picks to jump ahead of those teams. That puts the Jags in a great situation. They would only move back a couple slots, still get a high pick and more high picks for years to come. If KC steals the top QB then Arizona will be less likely to make a huge trade assuming they can get the second best QB a little later.

Now this is all speculation and depends on how free agency works but one thing this draft isn’t weak in is pass rushers. Jags have a big need for a pass rushing lineman and could get a great one at 4 or 5. There may be only 1 good QB and that’s why in a down year the first pick is more important than any other year.