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Talking the Tropics With Mike

Talking the Tropics With Mike 

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"Gaston" Strengthens into a Hurricane

Active Atlantic Basin but forecast models struggling with consistency/intensity + exact location of any tropical cyclone impacts on the U.S. ...... stay up to date on the latest forecasts & -- if traveling to the Bahamas, S. Florida or the Gulf Coast -- be particularly vigilant......... "Gaston" strengthens into a ...

All Eyes on Tropical Wave Near Puerto Rico

Active Atlantic Basin but forecast models struggling with consistency/intensity + exact location of any tropical cyclone impacts on the U.S. ....... hurricane recon aircraft to investigate wave -- 99L -- near the Caribbean for the 2nd straight day Wed...... stay up to date on the lastest forecasts & -- if ...

Hurricane Hunters to Investigate Wave East of the Caribbean

Active Atlantic Basin but forecast models struggling with consistency so any tropical cyclone impacts on the U.S. remain unclear....... hurricane recon aircraft to investigate wave east of the Lesser Antilles Tue. afternoon...... "Gaston" strengthening over far E. Atlantic ...... The strong wave that moved off the coast of Africa over ...

T.D. #7 Strengthens into "Gaston"

Active Atlantic Basin but forecast models struggling with consistency so any impacts on the U.S. remain unclear....... Tropical depression #7 forms over far E. Atlantic & strengthens into "Gaston"...... The strong wave that moved off the coast of Africa over the weekend became tropical depression #7 Monday and is now ...

Tropical Depression #7 Forms Over E. Atlantic

Active Atlantic Basin but forecast models struggling with consistency so any impacts on the U.S. are unclear....... Tropical depression #7 forms over far E. Atlantic...... The strong wave that moved off the coast of Africa over the weekend has become tropical depression #7.  A quick uptick in intensity should allow ...

Busy But Mostly Disorganized Atlantic Basin

Active Atlantic Basin but forecast models struggling with consistency so any impacts on the U.S. are unclear....... "Fiona" is battling against southwesterly shear & dry air & may degenerate into a remnant low.  The weak system will have a tendency to drift more to the west since it's become so ...

Likely to Have "Gaston" Over East Atlantic

Active Atlantic Basin but forecast models struggling with consistency........ "Fiona" is battling against southwesterly shear & dry air & may degenerate into a remnant low.  The week system will have a tendency to drift more to the west since it's become so shallow.  Some models do try to bring "Fiona" ...

"Fiona" + Multiple Tropical Waves to Watch

Active Atlantic Basin........ "Fiona" is struggling against southwesterly shear & dry air but continues to produce bursts of convection.  A cold front & upper level trough is moving across the N. Atlantic which will nudge "Fiona" to the north but not likely capture the tropical cyclone.  So once the trough ...

Atlantic Basin "Heating Up"

Atlantic Basin "coming alive"........ Tropical storm "Fiona" is struggling against southwesterly shear & dry air but continues to produce bursts of convection.  A cold front & upper level trough is moving across the N. Atlantic which will nudge "Fiona" to the north but not likely capture the tropical cyclone.  So ...

"Fiona" Nearing Hostile Area: Shear + Dry Air

Tropical storm "Fiona" continues to move west/northwest over the Eastern Atlantic within a marginal environment for intensification (dry air + increasing shear).  The track will be to the west/northwest through a "soft spot" or alleyway between two high pressure "cells".... at least as long as the system can remain relatively ...

T.D. #6 Becomes Tropical Storm "Fiona"

Tropical depression #6 has strengthened into tropical storm "Fiona" over the Eastern Atlantic.  The track will be to the west/northwest through a "soft spot" or alleyway between two high pressure "cells".... at least as long as the system can remain relatively strong.   One caveat is that a weaker, more ...

Active East Atlantic

The strong tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic has become tropical depression #6 and will probably strengthen into tropical storm "Fiona".  However, there has recently been a breakdown -- into two pieces -- of the Bermuda high over the Central Atlantic.  This break into two high pressure cells is allowing ...

Tropical Depression #6 Forms Over E. Atlantic

The strong tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic has become tropical depression #6 and will probably strengthen into tropical storm "Fiona".  However, there has recently been a breakdown -- into two pieces -- of the Bermuda high over the Central Atlantic.  This break into two high pressure cells is allowing ...

StrongTropical Wave Could Become "Fiona"

The strong tropical wave continues over the Eastern Atlantic has a good shot at becoming tropical storm "Fiona".  However, there has recently been a breakdown -- into two pieces -- of the Bermuda high over the Central Atlantic.  This break into two high pressure cells is allowing for a "soft ...

In this aerial photo over Robert, La., Army National Guard, vehicles drive on flooded U.S. Route 190 after heavy rains inundated the region, Saturday, Aug. 13, 2016. Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards says more than 1,000 people in south Louisiana have been rescued from homes, vehicles and even clinging to trees as a slow-moving storm hammers the state with flooding. (AP Photo/Max Becherer)

Strong Tropical Wave Over East Atlantic

A pretty strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa.  Indications are that this wave could develop this week before encountering some shear & lots of dry air.  The wave is forecast to start to gain latitude over the next few days turning more northwest & eventually northward ...

Wave Moves into the Southeast Caribbean.... + Off the Coast of Africa

The Atlantic Basin remains pretty quiet.  A weak tropical wave is moving into the far Southeast Caribbean, but its low latitude is resulting in some land interaction with S. America so no development is expected. Meanwhile... a pretty active tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa over the ...

Several "Waves"

Low pressure is hanging on near the Louisiana Gulf Coast.... there are weak tropical waves lined up across the Caribbean... & a wave is moving west off Africa.  But no tropical development is expected despite the fairly active basin. East Atlantic:  Satellite imagery below from CIMSS shows another surge of ...

NOAA Updates Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

Low pressure continues to spin just inland from the Louisiana Gulf Coast but no development is expected since the system is not over the ocean.  Heavy rain will still be a problem for Louisiana & Mississippi. East Atlantic:  Satellite imagery below from CIMSS shows another surge of dust (yellow & ...

Shear Increases Over Atlantic Basin

Shear has once again increased over the much of the Atlantic Basin so overall conditions are just not particularly favorable right now for tropical development. Low pressure is still hugging the Gulf Coast while slowly shifting west not too far from New Orleans.  Heavy rain will continue but with the ...

Gulf Coast Low Pressure Drifting West

The weak low pressure system along the Gulf Coast continues to drift to the west exiting the Florida Panhandle to near Mobile.  Convection has been persistent but with the low pressure mainly over land, development will be difficult, at best.  So we'll continue to see heavy along the Gulf Coast ...

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