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    Talking the Tropics With Mike' - updated every day during the hurricane season (through Nov. 30th).... Speaking of the tropics.... the first 10 days or so of Oct. have become rather notorious in recent years.  Hurricane Joaquin in 2015 over the SW Atlantic which contributed to the sinking of the cargo ship El Faro... hurricane Matthew in 2016 which hammered our local NE Fl./SE Ga. coast.... & hurricane Michael last year - 2018 - the most powerful hurricane to ever hit the Fl. Panhandle. Joaquin track: Matthew track: Michael track: Well... September was dry which was continuing into the first week of Oct. then came 'Rainy Days & Monday's' on Oct. 7th.  A tremendous soaker from the I-95 corridor to the coast with amounts approaching a half foot at some of the beaches.  While inland areas have been the driest & again missed out on the heaviest rain, beneficial rains occurred over virtually the entire viewing area except for inland SE Ga.  The combination of a weak stalled front, winds off the Atlantic, an upper level disturbance & warm/humid air lifting across the area (isentropic lift) set up bands of heavy rain virtually all day long. Rainfall as provided by the Jax N.W.S. for the month of September: FL   JASPER                                0.48 FL   BEAUCLERC                             2.74 FL   JACKSONVILLE BEACH                    4.88  FL   LAKE CITY                     0.26                 FL   LAKE CITY 2 E                    0.71       FL   GLEN ST MARY 1 W                0.68                   FL   CRESCENT CITY                         2.64             FL   GAINESVILLE RGNL AP             0.93          FL   HASTINGS 4NE              3.75                                           FL   OCALA                    2.01                                                FL   WHITE SPRINGS 7N               0.45            FL   JACKSONVILLE CRAIG MUNI AP      3.05      FL   JACKSONVILLE INTL AP        2.35              FL   JACKSONVILLE NAS          3.19              FL   FEDERAL POINT                2.66                                       FL   BUNNELL                 5.99                            FL   PALM COAST                            6.19 FL   NORTHEAST PALM COAST                  7.56  FL   NORTH PALM COAST                      7.20  FL   WEST PALM COAST                       7.29 FL   WEST PALM BEACH              7.29             FL   WEST CENTRAL PALM COAST               7.89  FL   FLAGLER BEACH                 4.35                     GEORGIA:              GA   ALMA BACON CO AP        0.20                                               GA   NAHUNTA 6 NE            1.70                   GA   FARGO 17 NE            0.70                                     GA   BRUNSWICK             1.39                  GA   BRUNSWICK MALCOLM MCKINNON AP       2.76 Our Oct. night skies courtesy Sky & Telescope: Oct. 17 (evening): The waning gibbous Moon rises about 2½ hours after sunset with Aldebaran 3° to 4° to its right. Oct. 21–22 (all night): The moderate Orionids meteor shower peaks in the evening. The radiant, northeast of Betelgeuse, stands high by midnight local time. However, light from the last-quarter Moon will interfere somewhat. Oct. 26 (dawn): The thinnest sliver of the almost-new Moon, Mars, and Porrima form a triangle low on the eastern horizon just before sunrise. Binoculars will help. Oct. 29 (dusk): Right after sunset, look toward the southwest to find the Moon, not quite 2 days old, and Venus less than 5° apart. Oct. 31 (dusk): The waxing crescent Moon, Jupiter, and Saturn briefly gracing the skies in the southwest after sunset.   Nov. 1 (dusk): Saturn, the waxing lunar crescent, and Jupiter form a line 22° long in the south-southwest after sunset. Nov. 3: Daylight-Saving Time ends at 2 a.m. for most of the U.S. and Canada.   Moon Phases First Quarter: October 5, 12:47 p.m. EDT Full Moon: October 13, 5:08 p.m. EDT (Full Beaver Moon; also Full Frosty Moon) Last Quarter: October 21, 8:39 a.m. EDT New Moon: October 27, 11:38 p.m. EDT AND - after 'great demand' :) ...... I am now professionally on Instagram!  Apparently this is 'the thing to do' but at least a few years late.... according to my kids & co-workers.  A shout out to Nora Clark on our Action News Jax digital team for her enthusiasm regarding this endeavor & for at least trying to get this ol' chief meteorologist up to date.  Give me a follow if you wish.
  • Two months! left in the hurricane season.  'Talking the Tropics With Mike' updated every day. We turn the calendars to Oct. with the hopes of some true fall weather (I always say you have to wait for the Greater Jacksonville Agricultural Fair &/or at least Halloween before we get sustained cooler temps.) So the averages at JIA: Low / High - 1st: 66 / 84.... 31st: 55 / 77 Rainfall: 3.93' Sunrise / Sunset: 1st - 7:20am / 7:12pm.... 31st - 7:40am / 6:40pm - lose 52 min. of daylight. Our so-called wet season is officially over (June - Sept.) & ended up drier than avg. largely thanks to a slow start in June & dry end in Sept.  JIA was a little more than a half foot below avg. for the four months but some inland areas were nearly 10' below avg. And it's been a hot year again.  As of Sept. 30th, JIA has had 96 90-degree days - well above the avg. of 82 & closing in a top 10 year (2018 is 10th with 99 90-degree days):
  • Talking the Tropics With Mike' - updated everyday throughout the hurricane season (ends Nov. 30th). Astronomical fall arrived Mon., Sept. 23rd.  But I always say we usually have to wait 'til Halloween to enjoy sustained fall weather in Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.  Our avg. high does drop 20 degrees to the mid 60s by the astronomical start of winter in Dec. The seasons are a result of the tilt of the earth.  In the Northern Hemisphere, the earth is tilted toward the sun during the summer (but farthest from the sun).... the earth is tilted away from the sun during the winter (but closest to the sun!).  The tilt is just about equal during the (autumn/spring) equinox. U.S. Forest Service tracks fall foliage * here *.  Fall foliage prediction map * here *.  Various state links on autumn color from the SE Regional Climate Center - here. Arctic sea ice reached its summer minimum in mid Sept. (18th) & was tied for the 2nd lowest at 1.6 million square miles - with 2007 & 2016 - since 'modern' record keeping began in the 1970s.  The Arctic summer temp. averaged about 7-9 degrees F above avg.  Full NASA story * here *.
  • The tropics remain active overall - daily updates: 'Talking the Tropics With Mike'.   'Velocity Potential Anomalies' show an impressive burst of 'rising air' (green lines) which often signals an active period in the tropics.  So while there will be multiple named storms across the Atlantic Basin into early Oct., ultimately the period will be perceived as active based on whether or not any storms threaten or hit land. More often then not, where tropical systems move & go will be dependent on the positioning & strength of the Bermuda high.  Far enough east or weak enough & many of the deep tropical systems will turn more north over the Atlantic - that's a best case scenario most of the time regarding any landfall threats. Meanwhile... our 'wet season' is winding down.  For the 2nd year in a row, Sept. has been drier than avg.  We could use some rain - especially inland where the past few weeks have particularly dry. September/early Oct. night skies (courtesy 'Sky & Telescope'): Sep. 20 (dawn): Look high in the south to see the waning gibbous Moon in the Hyades, not far right of Aldebaran. Sep. 23 (morning): The Moon is in Gemini and forms a triangle with Castor and Pollux ('the Twins'). Sep. 23: Autumn begins in the Northern Hemisphere at the equinox, 3:50 a.m. EDT. Sep. 24 (morning): The waning crescent Moon is to the right of the Beehive Cluster (M44) in Cancer. Sep. 26 (dawn): The thin sliver of the Moon is just 3 left of Regulus in Leo. Sep. 27 (dusk): Look for Venus very low in the west about 30 minutes after sunset.   Oct. 3 (dusk): The waxing crescent Moon and Jupiter are 1 apart after sunset, with Antares 10 to their lower right. Oct. 4 (dusk): Saturn, the Moon, Jupiter, and Antares extend along a 34 -line stretching from south to southwest. Oct. 5 (dusk): The first-quarter Moon and Saturn hover 2 apart just left of the Teapot in Sagittarius.   Moon Phases Full Moon: September 14, 12:33 a.m. EDT (Full Harvest Moon) Last Quarter: September 21, 10:41 p.m. EDT New Moon: September 28, 2:26 p.m. EDT Once in a while I'll post something in this blog that's not necessarily weather related.  And so it is in this case.  My wife & I 'dropped' my oldest daughter at college 15 hours away from home back in August. Of all the 'dad moments' so far in my life, this was one of the most emotional. Upon returning to work, things got busy in a hurry due to the tropics & developing 'Dorian'.  So I must admit my work - as is frequently the case - provided a distraction... & also delayed the writing of this post. A little about my oldest daughter: She's our first which is always particularly memorable.  She is an avid, bordering on rabid book reader.... very observant & astute... trusting... trustworthy.... practical... a really big heart... not the most social... a deep yet somewhat private faith... & very tight with Dad :). Thanks to her scholastic abilities, my daughter had plenty of college opportunities both in & out of the state of Florida. She has a keen interest in the sciences & in getting away from home (?) which closely guided her college choice.  Here are a few of my experiences/observations over the last few months during this 'life change' in the Buresh household: * as parents, it's mind boggling trying to make sense of all the financial aid & details, deadlines, & digital (used to be paper in the old days) work * her HS graduation ceremony was pretty fun & nostalgic with lots of family & friends. When the graduation party was over & the last of the family folk exited, I was thinking there's still 3 months before my daughter leaves.  It's a summer of fun & memories ahead.  The latter was true but the three months flew by! * some of that fun included a visit to the campus for orientation in June.  We met a lot of friendly people, & I came away feeling more comfortable with my daughter's decision.  And I thought: 'to be going to college again!'. * 'Florida Prepaid' is one of the college tuition bargains going.... IF your kid stays in Fl.! (you do not lose that money, however) * We were pleasantly surprised that our daughter diligently picked up & cleaned her room prior to departure in Aug. :) * it was interesting to watch my daughter plan her schedule including work while also saying her good-byes to friends & family in the weeks leading up to her leaving home. * my daughter & I had a nice steak dinner planned at one of her favorite restaurants the Sunday before she was to leave - just the  two of us.  In my head there was so much I had planned... so much I wanted to say.  So much so that I even wrote down some notes & hid the piece of paper in my pocket.  Why is it something like that never goes quite as planned?? * she flew to her University a week early because of more orientation * so my wife & I drove out my daughter's stuff (girls = lots of clothes!) leaving in the evening on an overnight road trip that would get us to our daughter by late morning the next day * we paid a bit extra to be able to move her in a day early - well worth the fee which was recommended by a Facebook parents page my wife is a part of.  We highly recommend parents sign up for such a group if their kids are going off to college - lots of handy hints.  Of course, a lot of 'dribble' too but you just have to filter through what's worthwhile & practical vs. what is not. * there were a LOT of sweaty parents on the moving days.  In fact, it reminded me of Disney World.  Yelling & tired but caring parents, impatient & sometimes crying kids. :) * quite the people watching opportunity!  & a stark difference between the amount of stuff the ladies are moving in vs. the gents.  I'm not sure how some of the students got multiple pickup loads or one of those mini U-Hauls squeezed into a dorm room!  But while watching all this, I decided I'm glad I'm not the one that's a freshman in college. * we moved, scrubbed & cleaned for hours!  How is it that there are cleaning crews for the dorms these days??  Once every two weeks the bathrooms are cleaned for them.  Seriously?? * 'campus town' reminded me of the fun of old days :)  On our way out of town, my wife & I stopped at a few restaurants to buy gift cards which we sent to our daughter in a card a few weeks later. * one of our friends told us they give their college daughter(s) cash every month.  I was like 'really?'.  We have to provide cash too??!! So we do drop a few dollars into her account each month but not a lot.  That totally screws up my nearly constant mantra to them: 'Money doesn't grown on trees!'.  I feel like this is the start of a teenager officially being independent & responsible.  She's also 'scoring' some cash from time to time courtesy her grandparents. * saying goodbye on that Sunday was nothing short of traumatic.  We took my daughter out for breakfast then walked her up to her dorm room.  We took some pics & traded some idle chit-chat & bad dad jokes. I feel like we lingered as long as we could with the inevitable hanging heavily over us.  When it was 'time'..... I hugged my daughter as hard as one possibly can, as long as I could.  I turned away saying something to the effect 'see ya' later' not wanting her to see my tears.  But she was crying as well, so I decided it was o.k., & I returned to hug & hold her again.  I told her 'this is your chance.  Your time to shine. Go get 'em. Have fun but work hard too.  Be smart. I love you.' -- or at least something along the lines of all that.  * so my wife & I headed out of town in a silent car with still some tears & a pretty deep lump in our throats. During this long drive, we'd be fine talking about something insignificant - often the weather (there were storm clouds!) only to look at one another & begin to tear up again. :) * one of the smarter things we had decided to during this trip was stop at a beach on the way back to Jacksonville for some R & R.  This was a good & necessary recovery period. * something like your first kid going off to college has caused me to really examine - often - the last 18 years of being a dad.  What I did right, what I did wrong - all the events, ballgames, classroom activities, etc. that I made it to..... but also that I missed - usually because of work.   What would I do differently as well as the times I so dearly cherish.   Was I as patient as I could have/should have been? Was I as good a parent as my mom & dad? Did I show her & explain 'things' enough to her so as to be an independent & productive adult? Did I prepare her enough for life's inevitable pitfalls?  And - oh dear - what about boys??!! Photos on my phone that show my daughter as a tiny little baby to now all grown up & such an independent thinker.  Special conversations that grew from the trivial & mundane to something much deeper. So.... in the weeks since we moved our daughter to college, she seems to be very, very happy & truly living the college life.  She was genuinely concerned about hurricane Dorian near our coast as well as how I was doing since she knew I would be working constantly. My wife & I are adjusting & are proud of her.... so far (long ways to go). I think she might miss our dog more than the rest of the family(!).  I still do hate to walk by my daughter's empty & quiet bedroom.   And we have a younger daughter who believes she's now in charge :). Meanwhile.... I'm counting the days to Christmas break. My daughter is in the pic below somewhere(!): Our therapy:
  • The tropics are indeed the topic as we head toward the peak of the hurricane season - Sept. 10th.  About 60% of all Atlantic hurricanes occur between Aug. 20th & Oct. 10th. For the very latest & detailed daily updates, go to 'Talking the Tropics With Mike'. As with every hurricane season: * stay calm * be prepared * be smart * go to the First Alert Hurricane Center online - preps, evacuations routes, maps, graphics, etc. There are many variables & possible outcomes regarding Dorian - path & especially strength.  Check forecasts frequently - at least daily as forecast changes will occur.  Relying on a forecast that days old is not logical. And remember what that 'cone of concern or uncertainty' means.  That cone has everything with the historic track error ranging from the moment the forecast was issued all the way out to 5 days when the avg. error is nearly 200 miles! Be smart, calm & organized BUT not a baby! :) National Hurricane Center average track error starting with 12 hours & ending at the 120 hour forecast from 2014-'18: Ready to roll into fall?!  o.k. - true fall temps. are still a ways off but the averages at JIA: Low / High - 1st: 72 / 89 degrees.... 30th: 66 / 84 degrees Rainfall: 8.19' (wettest month of the year on avg.) Sunrise / Sunset: 1st - 7:03am / 7:50pm.... 30th - 7:19am / 7:13pm - l ose 53 min. of daylight
  • The 'Buresh Blog' will be on vacation :) for a few days.... next update will be the week of Aug. 26th.... Of course, the tropics could always have different ideas.  Every single day through the hurricane season I update the 'Talking the Tropics With Mike' * here *. Speaking of the tropics.... it was 15 years ago that a blitzkrieg of sorts developed over the Atlantic Basin.  From the first week of Aug. through the end of Sept., 9 named storms formed, 5 of which hit Fl. Tropical storm Bonnie made landfall in the Panhandle on Aug. 12th dropping an F-2 tornado on the northwest side of Jacksonville... Cat. 4 hurricane Charley followed the next day on the SW coast of Fl... hurricanes Frances & Jeanne (more than 3,000 deaths in Haiti) made landfall at the exact same spot on the east coast just a few weeks apart.... & mighty hurricane Ivan hit Pensacola & ravaged the Western Panhandle later in Sept.  To say the 2004 hurricane season had a lasting impact on Fl. would be an understatement.  Consider: (1) hurricane days (like snow days up north) were added to school district calendars & remain a fixture for all school districts to this day. (2) the hurricane deductible was born & is maintained by most Fl. insurance companies to this day. The implication: if a named storm does damage to one's property, a hurricane deductible has to be paid (usually far higher than the standard deductible) before insurance kicks in & pays. (3) the '04 season was the first time since hurricane Andrew that upgraded building codes were tested.  The results were very positive.  And it was 50 years ago the weekend of Aug. 17-18, 1969 - that intense Cat. 5 hurricane Camille hit the Central Gulf Coast roaring ashore near Bay St. Louis, Mississippi during the middle of the night. The relatively small but violent hurricane is one of only 4 (in addition to Labor Day hurricane, 1935... Andrew, 1992... Michael, 2018) Cat. 5 hurricanes to ever make landfall on U.S. soil. The Mobile N.W.S. has an informative online write-up * here *.... vintage photos from the Times-Picayune * here *.   Speaking of El Nino, '04.... NOAA has officially called it 'over'.  There is still some water left near the Western & Central equatorial Pacific but water has noticeably cooled to the east as can be seen in the image below.  So we will need to watch for a potentially more active mid to late hurricane season given this scenario IF all other things are equal (favorable for development).   Forecasts below for a neutral state vs. El Nino & vs. La Nina into spring, 2020 with a model trend of slightly positive ENSO state but still generally below the El Nino threshold: The mid August skies have delivered recently! First pic below from Lauren Jackson Romeo, Vilano Beach - iridescent pileus clouds! The rainbow effect is caused by the ice crystals in the anvil/high level part of the 'thunderhead' (cumulonimbus cloud), reflecting & refracting the sunlight. Randy Harris, St. Augustine: Masyn Warner: 0 Lightning Sun. evening struck the runway at JIA!: 1 Jerome Smith, Jax Beach - Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds! These uncommon clouds are usually difficult to photograph because the formation does not last long.  Caused by differing wind speeds at different levels of the atmosphere. Erin Hires, Bryceville - crepuscular rays!  Caused by the clouds low on the horizon creating shadows as the sun rises. August/early Sept. night skies from Sky & Telescope:   Aug. 24 (dawn): The waning crescent Moon, in Taurus, is just 2° from the red giant star Aldebaran. Aug. 28 (dawn): The sliver of the waning crescent Moon is in or near the Beehive star cluster in Cancer.   Sep. 5 (evening): The first-quarter Moon and Jupiter hang in the south-southwest above Antares, the Scorpion’s heart. Sep. 6 (dusk): The Moon, brilliant Jupiter, and dimmer Saturn grace the sky above the tail of Scorpius. Sep. 7 (dusk): Saturn sits to the upper right of the waxing gibbous Moon, hanging above the Teapot of Sagittarius.   Moon Phases New Moon: July 31, 11:12 p.m. EDT First Quarter: August 7, 12:31 p.m. EDT Full Moon: August 15, 7:29 a.m. EDT (Full Sturgeon Moon; also Full Red Moon) Last Quarter: August 23, 10:56 a.m. EDT New Moon: August 30, 6:37 a.m. EDT
  • Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University & NOAA have issued their Aug. seasonal update.  Not a whole lot of change. If accurate, the next few months - which includes the peak of the hurricane season - will have 12 more named storms.... 7 hurricanes & two 'major' hurricanes according to CSU with similar - though a pretty wide range - numbers from NOAA.  Of course, no telling at this juncture exactly where storms might go & how strong they might be at landfall but one should always be prepared.  I update 'Talking the Tropics With Mike' every day during the hurricane season. July rainfall numbers were mixed for the local area of NE Fl./SE Ga.  It's typical, of course, to have a wide range, but this rainy season has been especially fickle.  From our Jax N.W.S.: FL   JASPER                      4.45                    FL   BEAUCLERC                             7.54 FL   JACKSONVILLE BEACH                    3.46 FL   LAKE CITY                    12.96                  FL   LAKE CITY 2 E                   11.92        FL   GLEN ST MARY 1 W                5.59                  FL   SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH SHOP     FL   PALM COAST 6 NE          7.49     FL   CRESCENT CITY                         7.19             FL   GAINESVILLE RGNL AP             4.27         FL   HASTINGS 4NE              7.63                                          FL   OCALA                    5.56                                                FL   WHITE SPRINGS 7N               4.28           FL   JACKSONVILLE CRAIG MUNI AP      4.88     FL   JACKSONVILLE INTL AP        5.29              FL   JACKSONVILLE NAS          4.41                                                                     FL   BUNNELL                 8.50                             FL   NW PALM COAST                         7.60 FL   NE PALM COAST                   6.95                           FL   FLAGLER BEACH                 6.07                     GEORGIA: GA   PRIDGEN                              4.51              GA   ALMA BACON CO AP        7.55                                               GA   NAHUNTA 6 NE            4.30                   GA   FARGO 17 NE            5.66                                    GA   BRUNSWICK             2.94                  GA   BRUNSWICK MALCOLM MCKINNON AP       1.72 GA   WOODBINE                     4.82 Doppler radar estimated rainfall for July: Percent of normal July rainfall: Jan. - July, 2019 precipitation is just about right on par for most of Florida, but there has been a large swath of above avg. precip. from the Southwest U.S. to parts of the Northeast U.S.: We're entering the time of year when our seasonal tides are higher than avg. largely dictated by the phase of the moon (full & new).  Any onshore flow (from the east) &/or heavy rain can make tides even higher causing at least minor flooding along & near the coast/intracoastal & the St. Johns River & its tributaries. From Al Sandrik, Jax N.W.S.: Oceanfront: The dates/heights indicated below are for the oceanfront and immediate estuary system near inlets within 2 miles of inlet entrances. Please consult NOAA NOS Tides and Currents for inland estuary points not covered by this document. * Saint Simons Island/Sea Island to Cumberland Island (Saint Simons Light tides +1.0 ft Above MHHW):  August 28-31 Peak 1.603 ft Above MHHW 8/30 September 1-2 Peak 1.248 ft Above MHHW 9/1 September 25-Oct 2 Peak 1.687 ft Above MHHW 9/28 October 25-31 Peak 1.741 ft Above MHHW 10/29 November 25-27 Peak 1.262 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * Amelia Island/Amelia River/Nassau Sound (Fernandina Beach tides +1.0 ft Above MHHW) Dates August 29-31 Peak 1.274 ft Above MHHW 8/30 September 1 Peak 0.999 ft Above MHHW 9/1 Sept. 26 – Oct. 2 Peak 1.431 ft Above MHHW 9/30 November 26 -31 Peak 1.329 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * Nassau Sound to Ponte Vedra Beach (Atlantic Beach tides +1.0 ft Above MHHW) Dates Peak Value August 30 Peak 1.010 ft Above MHHW 8/30 Sept. 27 – Oct. 2 Peak 1.327 ft Above MHHW 9/30 October 26 – 30 Peak 1.434 ft Above MHHW 10/28 November 25-27 Peak 1.137 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * Ponte Vedra Beach to Flagler Beach (St Augustine Beach tides +0.75 ft Above MHHW). Including the City of St Augustine and Davis Shores. Dates Peak Value Peak Date Aug. 28 – Sept. 2 Peak 1.230 ft Above MHHW 8/30 Sept. 25 – Oct. 3 Peak 1.367 ft Above MHHW 9/30 October 25-31 Peak 1.505 ft Above MHHW 10/29 November 24-28 Peak 1.232 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * River/Estuary Areas City of Brunswick (Howe St Pier +1.00 ft Above MHHW) Dates Peak Value Peak Aug. 28-Sept. 3 Peak 1.549 ft Above MHHW 8/31 Sept. 26-Oct. 2 Peak 1.902 ft Above MHHW 9/2 October 26-31 Peak 1.975 ft Above MHHW 10/28 November 24-28 Peak 1.537 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * St Marys/Kings Bay (KBNSB +0.75 ft Above MHHW) Dates Peak Value Peak Date Aug. 28-Sept. 1 Peak 1.137 ft Above MHHW 8/30 Sept. 27-Oct. 1 Peak 1.035 ft Above MHHW 9/30 October 27-30 Peak 1.155 ft Above MHHW 10/28 November 24-28 Peak 1.102 ft Above MHHW 11/26 December 24-26 Peak 0.846 ft Above MHHW 12/25 * St. Johns River. (Southbank Riverwalk +0.75 ft Above MHHW). Note: The St Johns River High astronomical tides go through cycles where the daily high tides are at or above MHHW for the period August 22nd to December 13th. So anytime during that cycle a northeaster or sustained heavy rainfall can influence water levels. The dates below are just the dates that have the highest astronomical tides in the river and thus the potential flooding is given a head start. Dates Peak Value Peak Date Sept. 25-Oct. 3 Peak 0.914 ft Above MHHW 9/27 October 8-13 Peak 0.822 ft Above MHHW 10/10 October 17-31 Peak 1.043 ft Above MHHW 10/28
  • Talking the Tropics With Mike' - updated every single day during the hurricane season! After a hot start to July - the avg. temp. was nearly 3 degrees above avg. in mid July.... a big turn-around with 9 straight days below avg. leveling the 'playing field' in what will end up being a July that was only slightly above avg.  Once again - there's no such thing as 'normal'  in the weather world :) So as we move into Aug..... two weather 'things' stand out in my mind.  The avg. high temp. dips below 90 degrees by late in the month & we LOSE 48 min. of daylight(!).  Averages at JIA for August: Low / High: 1st: 73 / 92 degrees..... 31st: 72 / 89 degrees Rainfall: 6.80' Sunrise / Sunset: 1st - 6:45am / 8:21pm.... 31st - 7:03am / 7:51pm > -48 min. Last week - week of July 24th - I examined building codes for Northeast Fl. as it relates to hurricanes.  Interestingly.... Jacksonville & nearby areas have some of the lowest building codes in Florida.  The million dollar question is 'are we tempting fate'?  Yes - we have the lowest percent chance in all of Fl. of being hit by a Cat. 3 or stronger hurricane BUT that chance is NOT zero.  My story begins at Florida International U. where there is a state of the art wind machine - WOW - 'Wall of Wind'.  The story ends with an examination of building codes as it relates to high winds.  It's often been said that mitigation & preparation is the key to resiliency after a storm.  You can find the story * here *. Florida wind speed building codes: For Jacksonville & the NE Fl. coastline.... a hurricane comes within 50 miles - on average - every 12 - 16 years.  The last hurricane to make such a close approach was Matthew when the eye's closest approach was 45 miles offshore of Jacksonville Beach.  The last hurricane with an eye that truly crossed our coast - 'Dora' in 1964 - 55 years ago(!). 'WOW' -  Wall of Wind: With talented videographer Joel Lotz.....
  • Talking the Tropics With Mike' - updated every day during the hurricane season. An unseasonable cool front will settle ove the Gulf of Mexico & Florida for several days bringing relief from the weeks of hot temps. in addition to some welcome rain. Cool fronts so far south are not common during late July.  This is the same front that 'busted' the heat wave at northern latitudes & helped spawn tornadic t'storms near Boston.   Locally.... the front will drop temps. into the 80s for highs.  So far in July.... only 2 days have fallen short of 90 degrees, but we'll add to that number with the front in the area. And the front will add to our daily rain & storms with widespread rain that will be heavy at times.  The beaches had recently gone dry as steering winds were not pushing sea breeze-generated storms toward the coast. As a whole, the U.S. remains as drought-free as the lower 48 has been in some 20 years: And we've seen marked improvement across NE Fl./SE Ga.  Maps below are the difference between mid June vs. mid July: The diagrams below show the dry/warm pattern going back to early May: