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Hurricanes

    The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... 'Ernesto' has transitioned to purely tropical & remains over the open North/Northeast Atlantic.  Ernesto will move north/northeast far from any land areas becoming extra-tropical over the weekend.  Some wind & rain will affect Ireland & the UK. A pretty active tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles & steadily moving west/northwest.  The wave will encounter strong shear upon entering the Caribbean so significant development is not likely to occur. IF the wave can survive the shear, there would be some potential for long term development over the Northwest Caribbean &/or Western Gulf next week. Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: 0 1 Water vapor imagery: Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month. 0 In the E. Pacific..... 'Lane' has become a hurricane.  Lane will steadily move west/northwest positioning itself southeast & south of the Hawaiian Islands next week. 1 2 3
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... Subtropical storm 'Ernesto' was christened Wed. & remains over the open North/Northeast Atlantic.  This is the 4th Atlantic system this year to be subtropical - an indication of overall less than favorable environment for pure tropical development.  Ernesto will move north/northeast far from any land areas before becoming extra-tropical by the weekend. A pretty active tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles & steadily moving west/northwest.  The some potential for a depression to form from this wave through early Sat. before the wave encounters strong shear upon entering the Caribbean.  Once into the Caribbean, the system should be shredded with little chance for significant development at that point.  IF the wave can survive the shear, there would be some potential for long term development over or near the Gulf next week. Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: 0 1 Water vapor imagery: Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month. 0 In the E. Pacific..... 'Lane' is organizing & strengthening.  What is likely to become a hurricane, will stay over the open Pacific but positioning itself southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by ealry next week. 1 2 3
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... The low pressure area over the N. Atlantic has become a subtropical depression & may very well become 'Ernesto' - yet another example of modern technology & the ability of satellites to find storms in the middle of nowhere.  This is the 4th Atlantic system this year to be subtropical.  This depression will move north/northeast far from any land areas before becoming extra-tropical by the weekend. A tropical wave about half between S. America & Africa is moving west/northwest & has some occasional convection.  No short term development is expected but this might be a wave to watch for next week. Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: 0 Water vapor imagery: 1 Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... A nontropical low over the N. Atlantic could try to take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics far to the north & northeast of the Bahamas.  This system will stay over open water & away from any land areas. Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: Water vapor imagery: 0 Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean: The Pacific has gone quieter after a busy 7-10 days.  Hector has crossed the dateline from the Central Pacific but is rapidly weakening. So we had a named storm that originated in the E. Pacific... moved from the Central into the Western Pacific - something we've only had happen three other times - map below tweeted by the 'Capital Weather Gang': Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... The Atlantic Basin is more or less quiet.  A couple of relatively 'healthy' tropical waves are over the E. Atlantic.  Overall... African waves are becoming more frequent & generally more active - as would be expected in Aug. - but no development appears likely in the short term at least. A nontropical low over the N. Atlantic could try to take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics far to the north & northeast of the Bahamas.  This system will stay over open water & away from any land areas. Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: Water vapor imagery: 0 Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean: The Pacific has gone quieter after a busy 7-10 days.  Hector is crossing the dateline from the Central Pacific but is rapidly weakening. But we will see a named storm that originated in the E. Pacific move from the Central into the Western Pacific - something we've only had happen three other times - map below tweeted by the 'Capital Weather Gang': Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month. Updated NOAA seasonal forecast:
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... The Atlantic Basin is more or less quiet.  A weak wave is about half way across the Atlantic but with little potential for development.  Overall... African waves are becoming more frequent & generally more active - as would be expected in Aug. - but no development expected in the short term at least. A nontropical low over the N. Atlantic could try to take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics far to the north & northeast of the Bahamas.  This system will stay over open water & away from any land areas. Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: Water vapor imagery: 0 Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean: The Pacific has gone quieter after a busy 7-10 days.  Hector will soon cross the dateline from the Central Pacific - making it a typhoon - having originated in the E. Pacific!  That's only happened three other times - map below tweeted by the 'Capital Weather Gang': 0 Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month. 1 Updated NOAA seasonal forecast: 2
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... The Atlantic Basin is more or less quiet.  A weak wave is about midway between the Caribbean & the coast of Africa.  Some slight development is possible over the next several days but long term development seems unlikely. A nontropical low over the N. Atlantic could try to take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics far to the northeast of the Bahamas.  This system will stay over open water & away from any land areas. Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: Water vapor imagery: 0 Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean: The Pacific has gone quieter after a busy 7-10 days.  Kristy will soon dissipate far from any land areas.  Hector will soon cross the dateline from the Central Pacific having originated in the E. Pacific!  That's only happened three other times - map below tweeted by the 'Capital Weather Gang': Kristy: 0 1 Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month. 2 Updated NOAA seasonal forecast: 3
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... The last advisory on 'Debby' was issued Thu. afternoon over the N. Atlantic. The Atlantic Basin is generally quiet though there are several tropical waves moving west from the coast of Africa.  Some initial development is possible but shear remains pretty strong closer to the Caribbean. Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: Water vapor imagery: 0 Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean: The Pacific remains active.... hurricane 'Hector' continues to march west well south & west of the Hawaiian Islands.  'John' is over the Eastern Pacific moving west/northwest while weakening well west of the Baja of California.  But rough seas & surf will extend as far north as the beaches of Southern California.   'Kristy' is farther to the southwest & will stay over open water. Hector: John: 0 Kristy: 1 2 3 Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month. 4
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... 'Debby' will soon be dissipating over the open N. Atlantic - no threat to any land areas. The name Debby has a history in Jacksonville.  Remember that the names repeat every 6 years (unless retired).  It was the last week of June, 2012 when a disorganized & relatively weak Debby moved east across Florida from the Gulf of Mexico.  The storm dumped heavy rain across the area - 10-20' - causing widespread flooding. 7-day Doppler radar estimated rainfall from June 20 - 27, 2012: The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet with no tropical development expected through at least the weekend... Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: Water vapor imagery: 0 1 Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean: The Pacific remains active.... hurricane 'Hector' continues to march west well south of the Hawaiian Islands.  'John' is over the Eastern Pacific moving northwest while weakening well west of the Baja of California.  But rough seas & surf will extend as far north as the beaches of Southern California.   'Kristy' is farther to the west & will stay over open water. Hector: John: Kristy: Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as is occurring now over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   Watch 'Surviving the Storm'..... 'Debby' has developed over the N. Atlantic making a transition from subtropical to tropical from Tue. through Wed.  Debby will encounter cooler water temps. + increasing shear & should dissipate by Fri. or so. Debby has a history in Jacksonville.  Remember that the names repeat every 6 years (unless retired).  It was the last week of June, 2012 when a disorganized & relatively weak Debby moved east across Florida from the Gulf of Mexico.  The storm dumped heavy rain across the area - 10-20' - causing widespread flooding. 7-day Doppler radar estimated rainfall from June 20 - 27, 2012: The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet with no tropical development expected through at least the weekend... Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......  The Atlantic Basin.... Caribbean: Gulf of Mexico: Water vapor imagery: 0 1 Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August..... Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean: The Pacific remains very active.... hurricane 'Hector' continues to march west taking a position south of the Hawaiian Islands into Thu.  The track will save the Islands any truly significant impacts though some gusty winds & rough seas/surf will impact the big island through late Thu.  Ileana has become absorbed by much larger 'John' over the Eastern Pacific.  John will move northwest staying away from any land areas quickly weakening by late week.  And 'Kristy' has formed farther to the west & will stay over open water. Hector: John: Kristy: Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of 'upward motion' (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by 'sinking' air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as is occurring now over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.