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Hurricanes

    The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: A persistent area of 'disturbed' weather is over & near Hispaniola & Puerto Rico producing heavy rain at times.  Mid & upper level shear should limit overall development - typical for this time of year though there may be some strengthening east of Florida thanks to interaction with a strong upper level trough that will be moving into the Eastern U.S.  The disturbance will move more north to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late this week into the weekend. The band of clouds over the Eastern U.S. below is in association with the upper trough & surface cold front.  As this upper system consolidates & intensifies by late week, the strong upper level trough will insure that '96-L' turns north then northeast well to the east of the U.S. Forecast model spaghetti plots for Central Atlantic disturbance - '96-L' (lack of tracks because some models do not show development): Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: The Atlantic Basin..... 0 Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): 1 Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean.... Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: A persistent area of 'disturbed' weather - a cluster of showers & t'storms with a tropical wave - 96-L - continues moving westward east of Puerto Rico.  Some gradual development is possible over the next several days though mid & upper level shear should limit overall development - typical for this time of year.  The disturbance will move more north mid to late week to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late this week into the weekend.  In fact, development may be delayed until the system is accelerating northeast out over the open Atlantic. The band of clouds over the Eastern U.S. below is in association with an upper trough & surface cold front.  As this system consolidates & intensifies by late week, the strong upper level trough will insure that '96-L' turns north then northeast to the east of the U.S. Forecast model spaghetti plots for Central Atlantic disturbance - '96-L' (lack of tracks because some models do not show development): Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: The Atlantic Basin..... 0 Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): 1 Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean.... Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: A persistent area of 'disturbed' weather - a large cluster of showers & t'storms with an active tropical wave - 96-L - continues moving west several hundred miles east of Puerto Rico.  Some gradual development is possible upon approach to the Northern Lesser Antilles & Southeast Bahamas over the next several days.  From there it looks like a move more north to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late this week into the weekend.   So tropical development - possibly 'Patty' - with this system is something to watch.  It does appear mid & upper level shear will be rather strong which should limit the overall intensity of '96-L'.  With movement east of the U.S. east coast, it would appear any impacts on Jacksonville & the local area would be minimal. Forecast model spaghetti plots for Central Atlantic disturbance - '96-L' (lack of tracks because some models do not show development at this point): Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: The Atlantic Basin..... 0 Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): 1 Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean.... Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: A persistent area of 'disturbed' weather - a large cluster of showers & t'storms - continues moving slowly west about halfway between the Caribbean & Africa.  Long range global forecast models have begun to latch on to this storminess & gradually develop - generally weak - low pressure upon approach to the Northern Lesser Antilles & Southeast Bahamas by the middle to end of the week.  From there it looks like a move more north to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late next week.  So some tropical development - possibly 'Patty' - with this system is not out of the question - something to watch late in the season (less than 3 weeks left in the official Atlantic hurricane season). Forecast model spaghetti plots for Central Atlantic disturbance - '96-L' (lack of tracks because some models do not show development at this point): Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: The Atlantic Basin..... 0 Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): 1 Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean.... Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: Overall - the Atlantic Basin has a late autumn look on satellite imagery with fronts deep into the southern latitudes with additional strong frontal systems moving across the U.S.   There has been a pretty persistent area of 'disturbed' weather - clusters of showers & t'storms - about halfway between the Caribbean & Africa.  Long range global forecast models have begun to latch on to this storminess & gradually develop - generally weak - low pressure upon approach to the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.  From there it looks like a move more north to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late next week.  So some tropical development with this system is not out of the question - something to watch late in the season (less than 3 weeks left in the official Atlantic hurricane season). E. Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: The Atlantic Basin..... Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): 0 Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean.... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   Globally....  - tropical storm 'Alcide' east of Madagascar over the South Indian Ocean is slowly weakening.  Alcide has peaked in intensity while moving very little & should stay a little east of Madagascar while continuing to slowly weaken.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: Overall - the Atlantic Basin has a late autumn look on satellite imagery with fronts deep into the southern latitudes with additional strong frontal systems moving across the U.S.  No tropical development expected anytime soon...... E. Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: The Atlantic Basin..... Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): 0 Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean.... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   Internationally.... most of the globe tropical cyclone-free .... with one exception - cyclone (hurricane) 'Alcide' east of Madagascar over the South Indian Ocean.  Alcide has peaked in intensity while moving very little & should stay a little east of Madagascar through the weekend while drifting toward the east &/or southeast.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: Overall - the Atlantic Basin is quiet...... E. Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: The Atlantic Basin..... Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): 0 Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean.... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   Internationally.... most of the globe tropical cyclone-free .... with one exception - cyclone (hurricane) 'Alcide' east of Madagascar over the South Indian Ocean.  While quite powerful, Alcide will not move a lot & should stay a little east of Madagascar through the weekend before weakening next week.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: Strong low pressure is over the NW Atlantic but is barotropic, not tropical.  Overall - the Atlantic Basin is quiet. Atlantic Basin: E. Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: The Atlantic Basin..... Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): 0 Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean.... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: The Atlantic Basin is generally quiet though there continue to be clusters of t'storms between the Caribbean & the African coast.  No tropical development is expected. Atlantic Basin: E. Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: The Atlantic Basin..... Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): 0 Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the Caribbean & nearby areas.... 1 Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... 'Buresh Blog': Forecasting a Monster ** here **..... 2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far: The Atlantic Basin is generally quiet though there are some stormy areas.  Scattered t'storm clusters are occurring over the Gulf of Mexico due to a stalled front & the proximity of an upper level trough. This could be an area to watch in the long run for a surface low to evolve but nothing indicated at the moment. Other disorganized storminess is over the East Atlantic but no tropical development is expected. The map below shows the genesis points for previous tropical cyclones in Nov. going back to 1851.... Atlantic Basin: E. Atlantic: E. Pacific will likely again have at least one new named storm soon..... Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear: 0 The Atlantic Basin..... 1 Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the Caribbean & nearby areas.... Sea surface temp. anomalies: SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   In the East Pacific..... tropical storm Xavier developed over the weekend off the coast of Mexico but is getting hammered by strong shear out of the southwest.   A tropical storm WARNING is in effect for a portion of the SW coast of Mexico where strong winds are occurring east of the center.  Xavier is expected to weaken over the next few days turning more west with time. 0