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Hurricanes

    The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' *** Though the Atlantic remains active, there are no threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or most of the coastal U.S.  Dangerous rip currents will continue at area beaches along with rough seas & surf due to a combination of distant tropical cyclones & persistent onshore flow. BUSY ATLANTIC BASIN: (1) Humberto, North Atlantic  - has become post tropical & is part of a large, strong ocean storm (2) Jerry over the Central Atlantic - tropical storm WATCH far Northern Lesser Antilles (3) 'Imelda' trough of low pressure inland over Texas & continuing to weaken (4) parade of tropical waves from the Caribbean to Africa....... see why the next few weeks should be active at the bottom of this post. HUMBERTO: Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The has become post tropical over the far N. Atlantic & is now a big ocean storm. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian & Humberto) playing an important role in the track of Jerry. By Monday - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high shifted some to the east.  This essentially left an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  Now Jerry will follow suit with a move north/northeast even farther to the east than Humberto. JERRY: T.D. #10 formed from an African tropical wave & was upgraded to a depression Tue. morning & the 10th tropical storm of the season early Wed. & then to a hurricane Thu. morning while moving steadily west/northwest.  Jerry has reached a zone of high shear, so the tropical cyclone may become mostly steady state/weaken some - high end tropical storm or low end hurricane - into the weekend.  While uncomfortably close to some of the extreme Northern Windward Islands, it looks like Jerry will be fairly distant to the north of the Greater Antilles & even more so from Puerto Rico.   Beyond this weekend, Jerry turns sharply northward following the 'wake' of Humberto & the persistent weakness over the Western Atlantic staying east of the Bahamas & far to the east of the U.S. coast.  Current projections are for Jerry to be nearly 1,000 miles east of Jacksonville late Monday. Bermuda may again be impacted by a hurricane by the middle of next week as Jerry moves into an area favorable for intensification upon turning north then northeastward. IMELDA: Time ran out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT Tue. within hours of being upgraded near the Texas coast with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  The most widespread, heaviest rain is over for Texas but not before catastrophic flooding in & around Beaumont & parts of Houston. More than 2 feet of rain! for parts of SE Texas since Tuesday: CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening but has flared with some disorganized t'storms upon moving into the Eastern & Northern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Western Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.  What will probably become 'Karen' - at this early juncture - looks to stay far out to the east over the open Atlantic.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Karen' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   You will see me fairly often refer to the 'Velocity Potential Anomalies' - usually in stride with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).  In simplest terms, the green lines correlate with rising air which can help lead to conditions favorable for tropical cyclone development.  And such is the case as a very strong 'pulse' of rising air spread from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin.  & right on cue - 3 named storms over the E. Pacific & now 2 named storms over the Atlantic.  This pattern of the MJO implies an active period over the Atlantic that may very well continue into the first 10 days of Oct.  Realize active does not necessarily mean 'bad' - as in landfalling.  Track will come down to the orientation of the jet stream, Bermuda high & other large & even small scale weather features that will ultimately steer the tropical cyclones.  Bottom line: stay up to date on what's going in the tropics! Humberto & Jerry over the Atlantic (+ Imelda remnants).... Kiko, Mario & Lorena over the E. Pacific: Lorena hit the SW coast of Mexico before moving back over warm water & re-intensifying. The storm will move near the Baja Peninsula through the weekend while interacting with Mario to the southwest.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' *** Though the Atlantic is very active, there are no threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or most of the coastal U.S.  Dangerous rip currents will continue at area beaches along with rough seas & surf due to a combination of distant tropical cyclones & persistent onshore flow. BUSY ATLANTIC BASIN: (1) hurricane Humberto, North Atlantic  (2) Jerry over the Central Atlantic - tropical storm WATCH far Northern Lesser Antilles (3) 'Imelda' low pressure area inland over Texas - severe flooding SE Texas (4) parade of tropical waves from the Caribbean to Africa....... see why the next few weeks should be active at the bottom of this post. HURRICANE HUMBERTO: The combination of Humberto far to the east/northeast & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly & slightly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue through the weekend. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The hurricane sideswiped Bermuda Wed. with the eye moving north & west of the island but close enough for a brief period of sustained hurricane force winds. Weather conditions are rapidly improving on the island as Humberto moves away. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian & Humberto) playing an important role in the track of Jerry. Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high shifted some to the east.  This essentially left an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic.  Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: JERRY: T.D. #10 formed from an African tropical wave & was upgraded to a depression Tue. morning & the 10th tropical storm of the season early Wed. & then to a hurricane Thu. morning while moving steadily west/northwest.  Though thriving for the moment, Jerry will be moving through a zone of high shear, so the tropical cyclone may become mostly steady state/weaken some - high end tropical storm or low end hurricane - into the weekend.  While uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, it looks like Jerry will be fairly distant to the north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, Jerry turns sharply northward following the 'wake' of Humberto & the persistent weakness over the Western Atlantic staying east of the Bahamas & far to the east of the U.S. coast.  Current projections are for Jerry to be some 800 east of Jacksonville late Monday. Bermuda may again be impacted by a hurricane by the middle of next week as Jerry moves into an area favorable for intensification upon turning north then northeastward. IMELDA: Time ran out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT Tue. within hours of being upgraded near the Texas coast with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & as far east as Louisiana.  Catastrophic flooding has been occurring in & around Beaumont. More than 2 feet of rain! for parts of SE Texas since Tuesday: CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has now flared with some disorganized t'storms upon moving into the Eastern & Northern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Western Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Karen' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   You will see me fairly often refer to the 'Velocity Potential Anomalies' - usually in stride with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).  In simplest terms, the green lines correlate with rising air which can help lead to conditions favorable for tropical cyclone development.  And such is the case as a very strong 'pulse' of rising air spread from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin.  & right on cue - 3 named storms over the E. Pacific & now 2 named storms over the Atlantic.  This pattern of the MJO implies an active period over the Atlantic that may very well continue into the first 10 days of Oct.  Realize active does not necessarily mean 'bad' - as in landfalling.  Track will come down to the orientation of the jet stream, Bermuda high & other large & even small scale weather features that will ultimately steer the tropical cyclones.  Bottom line: stay up to date on what's going in the tropics! Humberto & Jerry over the Atlantic (+ Imelda remnants).... Kiko, Mario & Lorena over the E. Pacific: Lorena will be very close to the SW coast of Mexico through Fri.  If Lorena survives the land interaction, the storm will then move to near the Baja Peninsula by the weekend.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' *** Though the Atlantic is very active, there are no threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or most of the coastal U.S.  Dangerous rip currents will continue at area beaches along with rough seas & surf due to a combination of distant tropical cyclones & persistent onshore flow. BUSY ATLANTIC BASIN: (1) hurricane Humberto, Central Atlantic  (2) Jerry over the Central Atlantic - tropical storm WATCH for Northern Lesser Antilles (3) 'Imelda' low pressure area inland over Texas - severe flooding SE Texas (4) parade of tropical waves from the Caribbean to Africa....... see why the next few weeks should be active at the bottom of this post. HURRICANE HUMBERTO: The combination of Humberto far to the east/northeast & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly & slightly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue through the weekend. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The hurricane sideswiped Bermuda with the eye moving north & west of the island but close enough for a brief period of sustained hurricane force winds. Weather conditions are rapidly improving on the island as Humberto moves away. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian & Humberto) playing an important role in the track of Jerry. Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high shifted some to the east.  This essentially left an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic.  Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: JERRY: T.D. #10 formed from an African tropical wave & was upgraded to a depression Tue. morning & the 10th tropical storm of the season early Wed. with a move steadily - though slowly - west/northwest.  Though thriving for the moment, Jerry will be moving through a zone of high shear, so the tropical cyclone may become mostly steady state - high end tropical storm or low end hurricane - into the weekend.  While uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, it looks like Jerry will be north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, Jerry turns sharply northward following the 'wake' of Humberto & the persistent weakness over the Western Atlantic staying east of the Bahamas & far to the east of the U.S. coast. Bermuda may again be impacted by a hurricane by the middle of next week as Jerry moves into an area favorable for intensification upon turning north then northeastward. IMELDA: Time ran out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT Tue. within hours of being upgraded near the Texas coast with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & as far east as Louisiana.  Catastrophic flooding has been occurring in & around Beaumont. More than 2 feet of rain! for parts of SE Texas since Tuesday: CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has now flared with some disorganized t'storms upon moving into the Eastern & Northern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Western Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Karen' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   You will see me fairly often refer to the 'Velocity Potential Anomalies' - usually in stride with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).  In simplest terms, the green lines correlate with rising air which can help lead to conditions favorable for tropical cyclone development.  And such is the case as a very strong 'pulse' of rising air spread from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin.  & right on cue - 3 named storms over the E. Pacific & now 2 named storms over the Atlantic.  This pattern of the MJO implies an active period over the Atlantic that may very well continue into the first 10 days of Oct.  Realize active does not necessarily mean 'bad' - as in landfalling.  Track will come down to the orientation of the jet stream, Bermuda high & other large & even small scale weather features that will ultimately steer the tropical cyclones.  Bottom line: stay up to date on what's going in the tropics! Humberto & Jerry over the Atlantic (+ Imelda remnants).... Kiko, Mario & Lorena over the E. Pacific: Lorena will be very close to the SW coast of Mexico through Fri.  If Lorena survives the land interaction, the storm will then move to near the Baja Peninsula by the weekend.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' BUSY ATLANTIC BASIN: (1) hurricane Humberto, Central Atlantic - hurricane WARNING for Bermuda (2) tropical storm Jerry over the Central Atlantic (3) 'Imelda' low pressure area inland over Texas (4) parade of tropical waves from the Eastern Caribbean to Africa....... see why the next few weeks should be active at the bottom of this post. HURRICANE HUMBERTO: The combination of Humberto well to the east & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly & slightly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue through this week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen with a broad eye that's becoming more & more symmetrical.  Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening into Wed. & Humberto could become a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week where a hurricane WARNING has been issued.  Hurricane hunter aircraft have found an ever widening wind field. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the track of Humberto & its 'followe', Jerry. Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high shifted some to the east.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic.  The eye will miss Bermuda but the large wind field will result in at least hurricane force wind gusts for the island into early Thu. not to mention very high seas, rough surf & some heavy rain. Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10, NOW TROPICAL STORM JERRY: #10 formed from an African tropical wave & was upgraded to a depression Tue. morning & the 10th tropical storm of the season early Wed. with a move steadily - though slowly - west/northwest.  Jerry will have to battle some shear by late week so the tropical cyclone may become mostly steady state - high end tropical storm or low end hurricane - into the weekend.  Though uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, present indications are that Jerry will be north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, EARLY indications are that Jerry turns more northward staying east of the Bahamas & the U.S. east coast but whether or not the tropical cyclone makes a full (harmless) turn to the north & stays out to sea is still something to be carefully watched. A weaker system will be steered more to the west by the low level prevailing easterlies & the strengthening of the Bermuda high to the north. Once - & if - Jerry is stronger/deeper, there will be a more northwar tendency.  Do stay tuned. IMELDA: Luckily... time ran out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT Tue. within hours of being upgraded near the Texas coast with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & as far east as Louisiana. CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has now flared with some disorganized t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern & Northern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Karen' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   You will see me fairly often refer to the 'Velocity Potential Anomalies' - usually in stride with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).  In simplest terms, the green lines correlate with rising air which can help lead to conditions favorable for tropical cyclone development.  And such is the case as a very strong 'pulse' of rising air spread from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin.  & right on cue - 3 named storms over the E. Pacific & now 2 named storms over the Atlantic.  This pattern of the MJO implies an active period over the Atlantic that may very well continue into the first 10 days of Oct.  Realize active does not necessarily mean 'bad' - as in landfalling.  Track will come down to the orientation of the jet stream, Bermuda high & other large & even small scale weather features that will ultimately steer the tropical cyclones.  Bottom line: stay up to date on what's going in the tropics! Humberto & Jerry over the Atlantic (+ Imelda remnants).... Kiko, Mario & Lorena over the E. Pacific: Lorena will move very close to the SW coast of Mexico through Fri.  If Lorena survives possible land interaction, the storm will then move to near the Baja Peninsula by late in the weekend.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' ATLANTIC BASIN 'HOT SPOTS': (1) hurricane Humberto - hurricane WARNING for Bermuda (2) tropical depression #10 over the Central Atlantic (3) tropical storm 'Imelda' over the extreme NW Gulf of Mexico (4) parade of tropical waves from the Eastern Caribbean to Africa....... HURRICANE HUMBERTO: There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue much of this week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen with a broad eye that's becoming more & more symmetrical.  Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening into Wed. & Humberto could become a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week where a hurricane WARNING has been issued.  Hurricane hunter aircraft have found an ever widening wind field. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic. Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10: #10 formed from an African tropical wave that's been moving steadily - though slowly - west/northwest.  The depression should pretty quickly become a tropical storm ('Jerry')... & eventually a hurricane.  Though uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, present indications are that #10 will be north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, EARLY indications are that #10 turns more northward but whether or not the tropical cyclone makes a full (harmless) turn to the north & stays out to sea is still something to be carefully watched.  The Bermuda high looks to be re-strengthening late in the month, so #10 may not necessarily be a 'clean up & out'.  And if #10 does end up recurving there's other tropical trouble to follow (see below). Recent global model forecast trends are farther west next week likely due to a combination of a weaker system initially being more steered by the low level prevailing easterlies & the strengthening of the Bermuda high to the north.  Do stay tuned. TROPICAL STORM IMELDA: A wider view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that helped spawn a surface low over the Northwest Gulf quickly leading to the development of tropical storm Imelda.  Luckily... time is running out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & College Station. CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm (#10) this week & yet again possibly the following week.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has now flared with some disorganized t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Jerry' & 'Karen' are next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' ATLANTIC BASIN 'HOT SPOTS': (1) hurricane Humberto - tropical storm WARNING/hurricane WATCH for Bermuda (2) tropical depression #10 over the Central Atlantic (3) low pressure over the extreme NW Gulf of Mexico (4) parade of tropical waves between the Caribbean & W. Africa HURRICANE HUMBERTO: There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue much of this week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen with a broad & somewhat ragged eye.  Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening into Wed. & Humberto could become a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week where a tropical storm WARNING & hurricane WATCH have been issued.  Hurricane hunter aircraft have found an ever widening wind field. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic. Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10: #10 formed from an African tropical wave that's been moving steadily - though slowly - west/northwest.  The depression should pretty quickly become a tropical storm... & eventually a hurricane.  Though uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, present indications are that #10 will be north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, EARLY indications are that #10 turns more northward but whether or not the tropical cyclone makes a full (harmless) turn to the north & stays out to sea is still something to be carefully watched.  The Bermuda high looks to be re-strengthening late in the month, so #10 may not necessarily be a 'clean up & out'.  And if #10 does end up recurving there's other tropical trouble to follow (see below). EXTREME NW GULF/TEXAS DISTURBANCE: A wider view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's developed a surface low over the Northwest Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity has been persistent across the Central & now Northwest Gulf.  But time is running out for significant development as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Wednesday.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & College Station. CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within this week (#10) & yet again the following week.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has flared with some t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps for the W. Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue much of this week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen with a broad & somewhat ragged eye.  Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening into Wed. & Humberto could become a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week where a tropical storm WARNING hs been issued. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic. Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: A wider view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's trying to develop a surface low over the Northwest Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity  - though disorganized - has been persistent across the Central & now Northwest Gulf.  But time is running out for significant development as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Wednesday.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & College Station. There are a couple of active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within this week & yet again the following week.  Regarding the first wave - '97-L' - global forecast models are generally showing a turn north in the long range implying no threat to the U.S. BUT it's very early & the steering influences will still undergo some changes leading up to the last 10 days of this month. Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has flared with some t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps for the W. Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east/southeast & high pressure to the north will result in dangerous conditions at our beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue much of the week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen despite the persistence of shear. Banding is increasing & the heavy bands of rain & storms are wrapping around the center with an eye becoming more & more evident.    Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening through at least Tue. & Humberto could become a Cat. 2 or even a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the eventual track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  The GFS model does turn Humberto briefly north or even a little northwest late in the week due a new incoming trough but chances are the hurricane will be far enough east by then to maintain a more north/northeast heading. The Gulf Stream will add some 'energy' for strengthening (though some upwelling remains from Dorian).  The center of Humberto will stay 300+ miles east & southeast of Jacksonville! Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: A wide view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's trying to develop a surface low over the Northwest Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity  - though disorganized - has been persistent across the Central & Northern Gulf.  But time is running out for significant development as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Tuesday. Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District: Thanks to Dorian, sea surface temps. have dropped noticeably from the Northern Bahamas extending northward for hundreds of miles.  Upwelling like this can last for at least a week depending on weather & wind conditions.  Otherwise.... sea surface temps. remain generally above avg. over the Central Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico. There are a couple of active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic with long term potential & track the big question mark.  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within this week & yet again the following week.  Global forecast models are generally showing a turn north in the long range implying no threat to the U.S. from the first wave. BUT it's very early & the steering influences will still undergo some changes leading up to the last 10 days of this month. Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has flared with some t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps for the W. Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east/southeast & high pressure to the north will result in a broad onshore (out of the east/northeast) flow that will create dangerous conditions at our beaches.  So - through Mon. morning: * a few heavy but brief showers streaming west/southwest off the Atlantic.  But there will be plenty of dry hours & the fast movement of the bands/cells will result in total rainfall amounts less than an inch. * rough seas & surf with a high rip current risk.  Best advice is to stay out of the ocean this weekend.  Breakers at our beaches will average 5 - 7 feet. * minor flooding along the coast as well as the St. Johns River & its tributaries, especially at times of high tide with some astronomical boost from the full moon phase. * breezy to windy with winds out of the east/northeast that will veer to out of the north then northwest Monday - offshore winds for surfers! Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - near & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen despite the persistence of shear. Banding is increasing & the heavy bands of rain & storms are wrapping around the center with an eye becoming more & more evident.    Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening the next few days & Humberto could become a Cat. 2 or even a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the eventual track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.   The Gulf Stream will add some 'energy' for strengthening (though some upwelling remains from Dorian).  The center of Humberto will stay 300+ miles east & southeast of Jacksonville! Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: A wide view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's trying to develop a surface low through next week over the Western Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity  - though disorganized - has been persistent across the Central & Northern Gulf.  But time may be running out for significant development over the Gulf as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Tuesday. Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District: 5-day rainfall forecasts from the European & GFS: Thanks to Dorian, sea surface temps. have dropped noticeably from the Northern Bahamas extending northward for hundreds of miles.  Upwelling like this can last for at least a week depending on weather & wind conditions.  Otherwise.... sea surface temps. remain generally above avg. over the Central Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico. There are a couple of active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic with long term potential & track the big question mark.  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within the next week or two.  Global forecast models are generally showing a turn north in the long range implying no threat to the U.S. from the first wave. BUT it's very early & the steering influences will still undergo some changes leading up to the last 10 days of this month.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east & southeast & high pressure to the north will result in a broad onshore (out of the east/northeast) flow that will create dangerous conditions at our beaches.  So - through Mon. morning: * scattered showers & isolated t'storms streaming west off the Atlantic.  But there will be plenty of dry hours & the fast movement of the bands/cells will result in total rainfall amounts less than an inch except for the few localized areas that manage to see some 'training' of cells. * rough seas & surf with a high rip current risk.  Best advice is to stay out of the ocean this weekend.  Breakers at our beaches will average 5 - 7 feet. * minor flooding along the coast as well as the St. Johns River & its tributaries, especially at times of high tide with some astronomical boost from the full moon phase. * breezy to windy with winds out of the east/northeast Sunday that will veer to out of the north then northwest Monday - offshore winds for surfers! Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon then to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening - over & near the Eastern Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen despite the persistence of shear. Banding is increasing & the heavy bands of rain & storms - still most prominent over the north & east part of the circulation - are gradually wrapping around the center.  There are occasional views of a developing eye on satellite photos.  For the hard hit Northern Bahamas, this wave will bring some gusty winds & showers, but it looks like most of the real heavy rain & strongest winds will stay north & east of the hardest hit islands.   Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening the next few days & Humberto looks to be a hurricane the first few days of the week while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There may be some impact on Bermuda mid to late week. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the eventual track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - thre is a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.   The Gulf Stream will add some 'energy' for strengthening (though some upwelling remains from Dorian).  The center of Humberto will stay 300+ miles east & southeast of Jacksonville! Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: A wide view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's trying to develop a surface low through next week over the Western Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity  - though disorganized - has been persistent across the Central & Northern Gulf.  But time may be running out for significant development over the Gulf as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Tuesday. Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District: 5-day rainfall forecasts from the European & GFS: Thanks to Dorian, sea surface temps. have dropped noticeably from the Northern Bahamas extending northward for hundreds of miles.  Upwelling like this can last for at least a week depending on weather & wind conditions.  Otherwise.... sea surface temps. remain generally above avg. over the Central Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico. There are a couple of active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic with long term potential & track the big question mark.  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within the next week.  Global forecast models are generally showing a turn north in the long range implying no threat to the U.S. BUT it's very early & the steering influences will still undergo some changes leading up to the last 10 days of this month.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean: