UPDATES:  Dorian forecast, local impacts

Jacksonville, FL — September 4, 8 PM:  Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says conditions will improve through the evening as Hurricane Dorian continues to move away from Florida. However, he says a breeze will linger locally as will rough seas and surf. Buresh says Dorian now becomes a concern for the Carolinas, with landfall or near landfall expected late Thursday or Friday.

September 4, 5 PM:  The worst of Hurricane Dorian is now north of our shores with the storm still remaining at category 2 as it spins east of the southern Georgia coastline. Northeast Florida was able to avoid the worst of what Dorian had to offer, but we are still suffering from the lingering impacts.

Expect the weather to get back to normal in a hurry with our summer routine returning as early as the overnight for Northeast Florida.

September 4, 2 PM:  *Dorian now located just east of Jacksonville's latitude* The storm remains at category 2 strength, with sustained winds at the eyewall reaching 105 mph. 

With the release of the 2 p.m. advisory not much information about Dorian has changed aside from her location. The storm is currently located just east of Jacksonville and continuing to batter our beaches with eroding force. Nearby streets are continuing to take on water from associated surge, and rainfall.

Nassau county had closed a pair of bridges in-and-out of Amelia Island as it dealt with a nasty feeder band, but that squall has moved on, and officials there have adjusted accordingly by reopening those roadways.

September 4, 1 PM:  Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh steps into the studio with Rich Jones to update everybody on where we stand with Hurricane Dorian, and how the impacts of the storm can be felt outside high gusty winds in your neighborhood.

September 4, 12 PM:  We are starting to see winds pick up along our coastlines, as well as to the north of us. In Nassau county, officials have shut down the Shave Bridge going to and from Amelia Island. Once sustained winds dip back below 45 mph the police will re-open the roadway there. Meanwhile Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh has updated his latest "Talking The Tropics" blog with updated info and expectations for what we should be dealing with for the remainder of the storm.

September 4, 11 AM:  Hurricane Dorian remains a category 2 storm who's winds top out at around 105 mph around the eyewall. Heavy winds and rain bands are currently battering our coastlines.  Sustained winds continue to carry tropical storm force strength in St. Augustine Beach, and slightly northward. Spin-up tornadoes are also likely today as those feeder-bands make their way onshore throughout the day.

As the weather deteriorates we expect the number of power outages to grow in our area. Beaches Energy Services Director Allen Putnam just joined us on the air to give us the latest info he has:

September 4, 8 AM:  Hurricane Dorian remains a category 2 storm and rain bands are sweeping through NE Florida and SE Georgia.  Sustained winds have reached tropical storm strength in St. Augustine Beach.

September 4, 5 AM:  Hurricane Dorian remains a category 2 storm and rain bands are lashing NE Florida. Wind gusts have exceeded 45 mph in some areas of NE Florida. Dorian's eye will pass by Jacksonville late in the day and into the evening. Rain will diminish by late afternoon and evening but it will remain windy through the night.

September 4, 2 AM: Hurricane Dorian remains a category 2 storm. The National Hurricane Center says life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along ports of the Florida east coast, the coasts of Georgia, and the Carolinas. Action News Jax Chief meteorologist Mike Buresh says the first tropical storm force sustained winds are in St. Augustine.

September 3, 11 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dorian is now moving at about 8 mph toward the north/northwest as it moves along Florida's east coast. The NHC says Dorian remains a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds remaining near 110 mph, with little change in strength expected in the next few days.

Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says there are really no significant changes from the previous advisory, but there was a slight 10 mile shift back to the east.

September 3, 8 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Dorian is still moving toward the northwest at 6 mph, with maximum sustained winds remaining near 110 mph. The NHC says Dorian is expected to start moving faster tonight. While Dorian has weakened in strength, the storm has actually grown. The NHC says hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

September 3, 5 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Dorian has gained some speed and is now moving at 6 mph toward the northwest. Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph with some higher gusts, according to the NHC.

Based on this latest track, Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says Dorian has shifted slightly west, with it now expected to move by Jacksonville Beach around 2:00 PM Wednesday, about 85 miles offshore. As this storm continues to move toward us, Buresh says this will cause tremendous wave action at our beaches with considerable beach erosion and very high seas and surf.

September 3, 2 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Dorian is now moving toward the northwest at about 5 mph, with a slightly faster motion expected to begin later today and tonight. The NHC says maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph, with some higher gusts.

September 3, 11 AM:  The National Hurricane Center says Dorian has weakened some, now is a category 2 hurricane and making its turn northwest. The storm is growing in size and continues to bring dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge on Grand Bahama Island.

September 3, 8 AM:  The National Hurricane Center says Dorian is finally beginning to inch to the north and west as a powerful category 3 hurricane. A hurricane warning is in effect for St. Johns County. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Duval, Nassau and Clay County.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning mean that tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area within 36 hours.

Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh say Dorian will bring a wide range of conditions, from chewing up the coast to a non-event along and west of U.S. 301.

September 3, 5 AM:  Our coastal counties from Duval County and areas north are under a tropical storm warning now. St. Johns County to the south is under a hurricane warning.  Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh say Dorian will bring a wide range of conditions, from chewing up the coast to a non-event along and west of U.S. 301.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning mean that tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area within 36 hours.

September 3, 2 AM: EM-dummyText .? The National hurricane Center has downgraded Hurricane Dorian from a category 4 storm to a category 3. The storm continues to pummel Grand Bahama Island and has been stationary for several hours. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of Florida's east coast.

September 2, 11 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dorian is still nearly stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island this evening, however, the storm is showing more signs of weakening. Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says Dorian is now just barely a category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds down to around 130 mph. Buresh says Dorian is weakening likely because of cooler water underneath the storm, as well as dry air moving in, due to the proximity to Florida.

In this latest track update, Buresh says the storm has shifted further east and is now projected to move about 100 miles east of Jacksonville Beach, Wednesday evening. Buresh says local impacts will include a coastal pounding, but more inland areas would be getting ‘off the hook.’

September 2, 8 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dorian remains nearly stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island, with maximum sustained winds dropping slightly to near 140 mph. Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says Dorian is expected to finally start to feel a tug north and northwest early Tuesday and will begin to pick up some speed from there. He says on this track, Dorian should make a very close move to Cape Canaveral Tuesday and Tuesday evening, with it moving east of Daytona Beach by early Wednesday.  From there, Mike says Dorian should be east of Jacksonville anywhere from 60 to 90 miles by Wednesday evening, with it then moving on up toward the Carolinas.

Locally, Mike says this storm will mean a beating for the beaches, with very high seas and surf, including the potential for 20-foot breakers. He says we'll also see winds at the beaches up to 50 and 60 miles per hour, with tropical storm force winds, possibly reaching inland to I-95.

September 2, 5 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dorian is now nearly stationary this afternoon, but says a slow westward/northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday. The NHC says an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts.

With this latest track, Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says the eye of Hurricane Dorian is expected to be about 80 miles southeast of Jacksonville Beach and 70 miles east of St. Augustine on Wednesday afternoon.

September 2, 2 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dorian is continuing to move very slowly toward the west/northwest at around 1 mph. The NHC says a slow westward/northwestward movement is expected for the next day or so. Dorian is then expected to move dangerously close to the Florida's east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening.

September 2, 11 AM:  Dorian has weakened to a category 4 hurricane. The Grand Bahama Island continues to experience catastrophic winds and storm surge.

September 2, 8 AM:  The eye of Category 5 Dorian is moving little while over the Grand Bahama Island.

September 2, 5 AM: Category 5 Dorian continues to have devastating impacts on the Grand Bahama Island.  Dorian threatens coastal areas of Northeast Florida Tuesday-Wednesday.  A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch have been issued for the entire northeast Florida coastline, with a Tropical Storm Watch for areas inland of the Hurricane Watch.

A High Surf Advisory along the coast for 7-10 foot waves today, 10-20 foot waves Tuesday-Wednesday.

September 2, 2 AM: Dorian remains a raging Category 5 hurricane. The latest track shows it still projected to be a Category 3 storm near Jacksonville on Wednesday.

September 1, 11 PM: Hurricane Dorian has slowed down. It is projected to be a category 3 of Hurricane on Wednesday P.M. just 60 – 70 miles east of Jacksonville.

September 1st 5PM: Hurricane Dorian is now forecast to be 50-60 miles East of Jacksonville Wednesday afternoon/night with the greatest impacts to the coast, Intracostal, St. Johns River and its tributaries.

September 1, 2 PM:   Hurricane Dorian has maximum sustained winds at 185 miles per hour.  The eye was over the Abacos Islands in The Bahamas.

September 1, 11 AM:  Dorian has become the strongest  hurricane in modern records for the Northwestern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds 180 mph. Catastrophic conditions are occurring in the Abacos Islands. 

September 1, 8 AM:  Dorian has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane and its eyewall is approaching the Abaco Islands with devastating winds and life-threatening storm surge and very heavy rainfall.

September 1, 5 AM:  A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet. A Tropical Storm watch has been issued from north of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach.

There will still be some more adjustments to the track but POSSIBLE Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. impacts (primarily Tue. into especially the middle of next week) & very dependent on exact location, movement & intensity of Dorian:

* increasing & potentially deadly rip current risk at area beaches (through the weekend [despite no direct Dorian impacts yet] due to steady onshore flow).

* rough seas & surf... some coastal flooding (accentuated by new moon phase into the weekend in addition to occasional heavy rain) + above avg. tides at the coast, St. Johns River & its tributaries.

* breezy winds out of the east/southeast 10-20 mph, higher gusts through Monday.... peak wind gusts could reach 50+ mph next week depending on positioning & strength of Dorian.

* several periods of heavy showers & t'storms, but it's not looking like a "washout" for the weekend.. All this water including the higher than avg. tides & onshore flow could make for some serious flooding in some areas.

* isolated fast-moving tornadoes/waterspouts.

TALKING THE TROPICS WITH MIKE

August 31, 11 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dorian is holding steady as a category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds remaining near 150 mph. The NHC says hurricane conditions are expected in parts of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning overnight tonight.

In terms of the overall projected track, Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says there is little change from the last update.

August 31, 8 PM: The National Hurricane Center says there are no significant changes with their latest advisory on Hurricane Dorian. The NHC says Dorian is continuing to move at about 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds remaining near 150 mph.

However, Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh believes Dorian may have strengthened into a category 5 storm.

August 31, 5 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dorian's maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph, as it continues to move toward the west at about 8 mph. The NHC says the slow westward movement should continue for the next day or two, with Dorian then expected to make a gradual turn northwest.

With this latest track, Northeast Florida remains in the cone of uncertainty, but Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says this path would mean conditions would be mostly dry, but breezy, with coastal impacts.

August 31, 2 PM: There is little change from the 11 a.m. update. Hurricane Dorian remains a powerful category 4 storm.

August 31, 11 AM: Hurricane Dorian remains a category 4 storm, but the latest model shows it has shifted east again. It is projected to be a category 3 storm off the coast of Jacksonville on Wednesday.

August 30, 8 AM: Hurricane Dorian remains a category 4 storm with winds up to 145 mph.

August 31, 5 AM: The latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Dorian just offshore for now, but still a category 4 storm. There still would be local impacts expected with this scenario.

August 30, 8 PM: The latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Dorian is still a category 3 storm, but is continuing to strengthen. Maximum sustained winds have now increased to near 125 mph with additional strengthening still expected.

August 30, 5 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dorian remains a category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds remaining near 115 mph. The NHC says Dorian is currently moving west/northwest at around 9 mph and is expected to slow down even further later tonight. Based on the latest track, Dorian should be near the Florida east coast late Monday, according to the NHC. Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says for us in Northeast Florida, it would be south of Jacksonville, on Wednesday afternoon as a category two storm. But he warns the forecast will continue to change in the coming days, so keep checking back in for updates.

August 30, 2 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Dorian has strengthened into a category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. The NHC says additional strengthening is still expected.  Based on this latest track, Dorian is expected to move near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and be near Florida late Monday.

August 30, 11 AM:  Dorian's winds remain at 110 miles per hour.  Expected to be a category 3 soon.  No change in track or intensity.

August 30, 8 AM:  Dorian is now projected to make landfall early Tuesday morning with a Florida landfall as a category 4 hurricane.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the NW Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105  miles.

August 29, 11 PM:  There is a little nudge south but more changes and adjustments in the days ahead.  The cone no longer includes much of SE Georgia. Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says there will still be some adjustments to the track but POSSIBLE Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. impacts (primarily Mon. into the middle of next week) & very dependent on exact location & intensity of Dorian:

* increasing & potentially deadly rip current risk at area beaches (as early as Fri. due to steady onshore flow). Always swim & surf with a "buddy" & as near a lifeguard as possible.

* rough seas & surf... some coastal flooding (accentuated by new moon phase Fri. in addition to occasional heavy rain) + above avg. tides at the coast, St. Johns River & its tributaries.

* breezy winds out of the east/southeast 10-20 mph, higher gusts.... peak wind gusts could reach 50+ mph early into the middle part of next week depending on positioning & strength of Dorian.

* several periods of heavy showers & t'storms, but it's not looking like a "washout" for the weekend.... wettest Monday & especially thereafter.

* isolated fast-moving tornadoes/waterspouts

August 29, 4:56 PM: The National Hurricane Center  says Dorian is continuing to move northwest at around 13 mph, with this track expected to continue through Friday.  The NHC says Dorian's maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph, with some higher gusts. It's expected Dorian will become a major hurricane on Friday, according to the NHC.

Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says this latest forecast shows Dorian hitting south of Cape Canaveral as a category 4 hurricane Monday afternoon.

August 29, 11 AM:  Dorian is now forecast to be a category 4 hurricane at landfall early Monday morning around the Florida east coast.

August 29, 5 AM:  Action News Jax Meteorologist Garrett Bedenbaugh says Hurricane Dorian is still targeting Florida's east coast by Monday. The intensity has been increased to 125 mph near landfall.

August 28, 11 PM:  Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says, for now, not a lot of change in Dorian. The storm is moving a bit slower, but still forecast to be a category 3 storm upon approach to the Central Florida coast.

It's still early on this one but POSSIBLE Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. impacts (primarily later Sun./Mon.) & very dependent on exact location & intensity of Dorian:

* increasing & potentially deadly rip current risk at area beaches (as early as Fri. due to steady onshore flow). Always swim & surf with a "buddy" & as near a lifeguard as possible though best advice is to stay out of the water!

* rough seas & surf... some coastal flooding (accentuated by new moon phase Fri. in addition to heavy rain) + above avg. tides at the coast, St. Johns River & its tributaries.

* breezy winds out of the east/southeast 15-20 mph, higher gusts.... peak wind gusts could reach 50+ mph Sunday into early next week depending on positioning & strength of Dorian.

* several periods of heavy showers & t'storms, but it's not looking like a "washout" for the weekend.... wettest Sunday into Monday.

* isolated fast-moving tornadoes/waterspouts

August 28 8:23 PM: Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says pressure continues to drop in Hurricane Dorian, which he says indicates that the storm is strengthening. The National Hurricane Center's latest update shows that all warnings have been dropped for U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico.

August 28 5:05 PM: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has issued an executive order, declaring a state of emergency for counties in the path of Hurricane Dorian. He says this declaration is about making sure that state and local governments have ample time, resources and flexibility to prepare, as he's also encouraging each resident to take steps of their own to get ready.

“It’s important for Floridians on the East Coast to monitor this storm closely. Every Florida resident should have seven days of supplies, including food, water and medicine, and should have a plan in case of disaster. I will continue to monitor Hurricane Dorian closely with emergency management officials. The state stands ready to support all counties along the coast as they prepare,” says Gov. DeSantis in a statement.

The National Hurricane Center has also released it’s latest storm track information, showing Dorian’s maximum sustained winds have now increased slightly to around 80 mph.

August 28 1:52 PM: The National Hurricane Center says Dorian has been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds around 75 mph. The NHC says Dorian is moving northwest at about 13 mph, with this motion expected to continue for the next day or two. The NHC says Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening during the next few days over the Atlantic

ORIGINAL STORY: Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh and the First Alert Weather Team are updating projected local impacts from Dorian over the Labor Day weekend.

INDEPTH:  Talking the Tropics with Mike Buresh

It's still early on this one but POSSIBLE Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. impacts (primarily later Sat./Sun./Mon.) & very dependent on exact location & intensity of Dorian:

* increasing & potentially deadly rip current risk at area beaches. Always swim & surf with a "buddy" & as near a lifeguard as possible though best advice is to stay out of the water!

* rough seas & surf... some coastal flooding (accentuated by new moon phase Fri. in addition to heavy rain) + above avg. tides at the coast, St. Johns River & its tributaries.

* breezy winds out of the east/southeast 15-20 mph, higher gusts.... peak wind gusts could reach 50+ mph Sunday into early next week depending on positioning & strength of Dorian.

* several periods of heavy showers & t'storms, but it's not looking like a "washout" for the weekend.... wettest Sunday into Monday.

* isolated fast-moving tornadoes/waterspouts.

PREPARE:  WOKV Hurricane Guide