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Talking The Tropics with Mike

    The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' As a whole.... the Atlantic Basin is now quiet. A cold front is strung out across the Northern Atlantic.... weak waves are starting to somewhat steadily march west across the Atlantic.   No tropical development through the weekend..... 2019 names..... 'Chantal' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): Atlantic Basin: East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:   0 The Atlantic Basin: 1 Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' The last Barry advisory was issued by the NHC Mon. morning..... Barry's remnants finally dissipated over the Ohio Valley. As a whole.... the Atlantic Basin is now quiet. 2019 names..... 'Chantal' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): Atlantic Basin: East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:   0 The Atlantic Basin: 1 Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' The last Barry advisory was issued by the NHC Mon. morning..... Barry was deemed a hurricane by the NHC Sat. morning.  If sustained hurricane force winds ever reached the surface, it was over a small area east/southeast & perhaps south of the center & mainly over water.  Barry has been picked up by the jet stream & will accelerate to the northeast then east across the Ohio Valley all the way to New England still producing pockets of heavy rain near its path along with isolated tornadoes.  So Barry has gone full circle.  The tropical cyclone's genesis was from an upper level low that moved from the Plains into the Tennessee Valley then clockwise to the Northern Gulf of Mexico where the surface reflection developed then ashore on the coast of Louisiana.... through Arkansas, Missouri & then into the Ohio Valley. 2019 names..... 'Chantal' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): Atlantic Basin: East Atlantic: 0 1 Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:   The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean: 0 
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' The last Barry advisory was issued by the NHC Mon. morning..... Barry was deemed a hurricane by the NHC Sat. morning.  If sustained hurricane force winds ever reached the surface, it was over a small area east/southeast & perhaps south of the center & mainly over water.  Barry is being picked up by the jet stream & will accelerate to the northeast then east across the Ohio Valley all the way to New England still producing pockets of heavy rain near its path along with isolated tornadoes. Rainfall forecast: 2019 names..... 'Chantal' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): Atlantic Basin - there are no other areas of concern across the Atlantic Basin.  A strong wave is moving west off the coast of Africa but no signs of long term organization.  Still a little early for development so far east + sea surface temps. remain cooler than average over the E. Atlantic. East Atlantic: 0 1 Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: 0 Caribbean: 1 
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' The last Barry advisory was issued by the NHC Mon. morning..... Well... Barry was deemed a hurricane by the NHC Sat. morning.  If sustained hurricane force winds ever reached the surface, it was over a small area east/southeast & perhaps south of the center & mainly over water.  Barry will continue slowly moving northeast while the surface reflection dissipates over the Missouri & Ohio Valley's.  Heavy convection - capable of producing very heavy rain & isolated tornadoes - continues mainly east of the center arching southward all the way to the Gulf Coast. Rainfall forecast: 2019 names..... 'Chantal' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): Atlantic Basin: East Atlantic: 0 1 Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: 0 Caribbean: 1 
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' *** Tropical storm WARNING, storm surge WARNING & Hurricane WARNING coastal Louisiana..... Barry will have NO direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. The average date for the first Atlantic tropical system is July 9th, so we were  about 'on schedule' (Barry was upgraded July 11th).  The last two U.S. landfalling July tropical systems were tropical storm Emily in 2017 (Central Florida) and hurricane Arthur in 2014 (N. Carolina). Well... Barry was deemed a hurricane by the NHC Sat. morning.  If sustained hurricane force winds ever reached the surface, it was over a small area east/southeast & perhaps south of the center & mainly over water.  Barry has had a history of looking disheveled on satellite imagery & Sunday is no exception with the center of Western Louisiana helping to create north/south bands of convection to the east while there's a blob of strong convection over the NW Gulf.   Heavy rainfall remains the primary threat & concern. 6-12 inches or more of rain is possible for parts of Louisiana & Mississippi. Major flooding is likely in what has been a wet spring & early summer with already high levels on the Mississippi River & its tributaries. It's important not to get too caught up on exactly where the center is & is forecast to be.  Especially in the case of less well developed tropical cyclones like Barry, hazards extend far away from the center.  New Orleans will be in some of the bands of very heavy rainfall that will repeatedly move across the city.  While rainfall may ultimately be heaviest - 1-2 feet - a little west of New Orleans over the heart of Louisiana, serious flooding is still likely for New Orleans given strong onshore flow off the ocean feeding into the city's waterways in combination with at least 6-12' of rain, possibly more.   Model plots:. Rainfall forecast through the weekend is very heavy along the Gulf Coast closest to Barry with the potential for considerable flooding for New Orleans & much of Louisiana & Mississippi with very heavy rain as far north as the Ohio River. Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District: Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University produced the image below showing the Gulf is 'sweet spot' for tropical development in July but - interestingly - no hurricane has had its genesis (formation) over the Gulf in July going back to 1851.  So - from that standpoint - Barry is making history. 0 2019 names..... 'Andrea' was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: 'Barry' (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): 1 Atlantic Basin - several tropical waves over the deep tropical Atlantic but no threat for development at this time.... East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' *** Tropical storm WARNING, storm surge WARNING & Hurricane WARNING coastal Louisiana..... Barry will have NO direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. The average date for the first Atlantic tropical system is July 9th, so we're about 'on schedule'.  The last two U.S. landfalling July tropical systems were tropical storm Emily in 2017 (Central Florida) and hurricane Arthur in 2014 (N. Carolina). Well... Barry was deemed a hurricane by the NHC Sat. morning.  If sustained hurricane force winds are reaching the surface, it's over a small area east/southeast & perhaps south of the center & mainly over water.  More than likely, hurricane force wind gusts will be all that's measured over any land areas.  No eye has formed with Barry & weakening will commence now that the storm is moving inland losing its 'energy source' - the warm Gulf water.   It's a matter of semantics - whether a hurricane or tropical storm.... extreme rainfall remains the primary threat & concern. 2 feet or more of rain is possible for parts of Louisiana & Mississippi. Major if not historical flooding is likely in what has been a wet spring & early summer with already high levels on the Mississippi River & its tributaries.  Significant storm surge will occur over SE Louisiana & coastal Mississsippi & - to some degree - for coastal Alabama.  Convective 'bursts' (nearly nonstop t'storm development) - which began early Fri. - will likely continue through Sunday & may still cause the center to 'jump around' some through Sat. night until the center is firmly over land moving north. While the center of the storm will be well west of New Orleans, it's important not to get too caught up on exactly where the center is & is forecast to be.  Especially in the case of less well developed tropical cyclones like Barry, hazards extend far away from the center.  New Orleans will be in some of the bands of very heavy rainfall that will repeatedly move across the city.  While rainfall may ultimately be heaviest - 1-2 feet - a little west of New Orleans across the heart of Louisiana, serious flooding is still likely for New Orlenas given strong onshore flow off the ocean feeding into the city's waterways in combination with at least 6-12' of rain, possibly more.   Model plots:. Sea surface temps. over the Gulf are plenty warm enough to support &/or help tropical development.... as highs as the upper 80s over parts of the Northern Gulf with particularly warm water temps. just about right where Barry is expected to track off the coast of Louisiana. Rainfall forecast through the weekend is very heavy along the Gulf Coast closest to Barry with the potential for considerable flooding for New Orleans & much of Louisiana & Mississippi with very heavy rain as far north as the Ohio River. Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District: 0 Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University produced the image below showing the Gulf is 'sweet spot' for tropical development in July but - interestingly - no hurricane has had its genesis (formation) over the Gulf in July going back to 1851.  So - from that standpoint - Barry is making history. 1 2019 names..... 'Andrea' was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: 'Barry' (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): Atlantic Basin: A weak wave is over the Eastern Atlantic but there does not seem to be much support for long term development.... East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' *** Tropical storm WARNING, storm surge WARNING & Hurricane WARNING coastal Louisiana..... Barry is slowly advancing to the Louisiana coast.  There will be NO direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. The average date for the first Atlantic tropical system is July 9th, so we're about 'on schedule'.  The last two U.S. landfalling July tropical systems were tropical storm Emily in 2017 (Central Florida) and hurricane Arthur in 2014 (N. Carolina). Upper level high pressure over the Western U.S. + a weaker upper level high pressure cell near Florida will allow for an alleyway of sorts along the Gulf Coast helping to induce a northward turn.  The position & strength of these upper level high pressure areas is the key to the ultimate turn north of 'Barry' & just how far west the system may end up.  The landfall for Barry - as either a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane - will be through the day Saturday approximately 100 mileswest/southwest of New Orleans.  Extreme rainfall - 2 feet or more - is possible for parts of Louisiana & Mississippi. Major flooding is of great concern considering what has been a wet spring & early summer with already high levels on the Mississippi River & its tributaries.  Significant storm surge will occur over SE Louisiana & coastal Mississsippi & - to some degree - for coastal Alabama.  Barry has been battling some shear out of the north as well as some dry mid & upper level air being pulled into the circulation from the continental U.S., but conditions overall generally favor at least slow strengthening up to landfall.  Convective 'bursts' (nearly nonstop t'storm development) has been ongoing since early Fri. over the southern half of the broad circulation.  The storms have had difficulty wrapping all the way around the center & proximity to land might impede that process.  But the nearly constant firing of thunderstorms is an indication that Barry is trying to organize and strengthen & probably will be trying to do so all the way up to landfall. While the center of the storm will be well west of New Orleans, it's important not to get too caught up on exactly where the center is & is forecast to be.  Especially in the case of less well developed tropical cyclones like Barry, hazards extend far away from the center.  New Orleans will be in some of the bands of very heavy rainfall that will repeatedly move across the city.  While rainfall may ultimately be heaviest - 1-2 feet - a little west of New Orleans across the heart of Louisiana, serious flooding is still likely for New Orlenas given strong onshore flow off the ocean feeding into the city's waterways in combination with at least 6-12' of rain, possibly more.   Model plots:. Sea surface temps. over the Gulf are plenty warm enough to support &/or help tropical development.... as highs as the upper 80s over parts of the Northern Gulf with particularly warm water temps. just about right where Barry is expected to track off the coast of Louisiana. Rainfall forecast through the weekend is very heavy along the Gulf Coast closest to Barry with the potential for considerable flooding for New Orleans & much of Louisiana & Mississippi with very heavy rain as far north as the Ohio River. Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District: 0 Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University produced the image below showing the Gulf is 'sweet spot' for tropical development in July but - interestingly - no hurricane has had its genesis (formation) over the Gulf in July going back to 1851.  But - beware - there's a first time for everything & Barry is forecast to become a hurricane prior to landfall. 1 2019 names..... 'Andrea' was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: 'Barry' (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): Atlantic Basin: A weak wave is over the Eastern Atlantic but there does not seem to be much support for long term development.... East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' *** Tropical storm WARNING, storm surge WARNING & Hurricane WARNING coastal Louisiana..... Tropical storm Barry is meandering over the Northern Gulf of Mexico & continues to struggle to truly organize though the central pressure has managed to slowly fall & wind speeds have slowly increased.  There will be no direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. so locally expect the following: * some uptick in rainfall & heavy rain potential through Fri. night with bands of showers & thunderstorms rotating northward far to the east of the low pressure. * a slight increase in swells & onshore flow through Fri. night/early Sat. helping to create an enhanced rip current risk at area beaches. * everyone from the Panhandle west through Mobile, & especially Biloxi, New Orleans to the Texas coast should stay up to date on the latest forecasts The average date for the first Atlantic tropical system is July 9th, so we're about 'on schedule'.  The last two U.S. landfalling July tropical systems were tropical storm Emily in 2017 (Central Florida) and hurricane Arthur in 2014 (N. Carolina). As for Jacksonville & all of Fl., the local area will be the broad southerly flow to the east of the center meaning an increase in tropical moisture helping to create bands of northward moving showers & t'storms becoming more scattered over the weekend.  Much more major impacts from Barry will be further west.  Upper level high pressure over the Western U.S. + a weaker upper level high pressure cell near Florida will allow for an alleyway of sorts along the Gulf Coast helping to induce an eventual turn northward.  The position & strength of these upper level high pressure areas is the key in the ultimate turn north of 'Barry' & just how far west the system may end up.  The landfall for Barry - as either a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane - looks to be Saturday west/southwest of New Orleans.  Extreme rainfall - 2 feet or more - is possible for parts of Louisiana & Mississippi. Major flooding is of great concern considering what has been a wet spring & early summer with already high levels on the Mississippi River & its tributaries.  Significant storm surge will occur over SE Louisiana & coastal Mississsippi & - to some degree - for coastal Alabama.  Barry is battling some shear out of the north as well as some dry mid & upper level air being pulled into the circulation from the continental U.S.  But conditions overall generally favor at least slow strengthening up to landfall.  In fact, a convective 'burst' (nearly nonstop t'storm development) has been ongoing since early Fri. over the southern half of the broad circulation.  The storms have had difficulty wrapping all the way around the center & proximity to land might impede that process.  But the nearly constant firing of thunderstorms is an indication that Barry is trying to organize and strengthen & probably will be trying to do so all the way up to landfall. . p>   Model plots:. Tropical systems like to follow the path of least resistence.  The chart below is the upper level flow (about 30-35,000 feet) for Friday showing the Bermuda high to the east of Florida & a weaker high over the Rockies.  The strength of the high east of Florida will be key on how far west the system might track & just how sharp the northward turn will be.   Sea surface temps. over the Gulf are plenty warm enough to support &/or help tropical development.... as highs as the upper 80s over parts of the Northern Gulf with particularly warm water temps. just about right where Barry is expected to track off the coast of Louisiana. Rainfall forecast through the weekend is very heavy along the Gulf Coast closest to the disturbance with the potential for considerable flooding for New Orleans & much of Louisiana & Mississippi:  The heaviest rain will affect New Orleans Fri. night through Sat. night/early Sunday. 0 Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District: 1 Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University produced the image below showing the Gulf is 'sweet spot' for tropical development in July but - interestingly - no hurricane has had its genesis (formation) over the Gulf in July going back to 1851.  But - beware - there's a first time for everything & Barry is forecast to become a hurricane prior to landfall. 2019 names..... 'Andrea' was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: 'Barry' (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): Atlantic Basin: A weak wave is over the Eastern Atlantic but there does not seem to be much support for long term development.... East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' *** Tropical storm WARNING, storm surge WARNING & Hurricane WARNING coastal Louisiana..... Tropical storm Barry is meandering over the Northern Gulf of Mexico & continues to struggle to truly organize though the central pressure has managed to slowly fall.  There will be no direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. so locally expect the following: * some uptick in rainfall & heavy rain potential through Fri. with bands of showers & thunderstorms rotating northward far to the east of the low pressure. * a slight increase in swells & onshore flow through Fri. night/early Sat. helping to create an enhanced rip current risk at area beaches. * everyone from the Panhandle west through Mobile, & especially Biloxi, New Orleans to the Texas coast should stay up to date on the latest forecasts The average date for the first Atlantic tropical system is July 9th, so we're about 'on schedule'.  The last two U.S. landfalling July tropical systems were tropical storm Emily in 2017 (Central Florida) and hurricane Arthur in 2014 (N. Carolina). As for Jacksonville & all of Fl., the local area will be the broad southerly flow to the east of the center meaning an increase in tropical moisture helping to create bands of northward moving showers & t'storms, especially during the afternoon & evening hours.  Much more major impacts will be further west.  Upper level high pressure over the Western U.S. + a weaker upper level high pressure cell near Florida will allow for an alleyway of sorts along the Gulf Coast helping to induce an eventual turn northward.  The position & strength of these upper level high pressure areas will be key in the ultimate turn north of 'Barry' & just how far west the system may end up.  The landfall for Barry - as either a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane - looks to be Saturday west of New Orleans.  Extreme rainfall - 2 feet or more - is possible for parts of Louisiana & Mississippi & major flooding is of great concern aggravated but what has been a wet spring & early summer with already high levels on the Mississippi River & its tributaries.  Significant storm surge will occur over SE Louisiana & coastal Mississsippi & - to some degree - for coastal Alabama.  Barry is battling some shear out of the north as well as some dry mid & upper level air being pulled into the circulation from the continental U.S.  But conditions overall generally favor at least slow strengthening up to landfall late Fri. night or Saturday. p>   Model plots:. Tropical systems like to follow the path of least resistence.  The chart below is the upper level flow (about 30-35,000 feet) for Friday showing the Bermuda high to the east of Florida & a weaker high over the Rockies.  The strength of the high east of Florida will be key on how far west the system might track & just how sharp the northward turn will be.   Sea surface temps. over the Gulf are plenty warm enough to support &/or help tropical development.... as highs as the upper 80s over parts of the Northern Gulf with particularly warm water temps. just about right where Barry is expected to track off the coast of Louisiana. Rainfall forecast through the weekend is very heavy along the Gulf Coast closest to the disturbance with the potential for considerable flooding for New Orleans & much of Louisiana & Mississippi: 0 Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District: 1 Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University produced the image below showing the Gulf is 'sweet spot' for tropical development in July but - interestingly - no hurricane has had its genesis (formation) over the Gulf in July going back to 1851.  But - beware - there's a first time for everything & Barry is forecast to become a hurricane prior to landfall. 2019 names..... 'Andrea' was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: 'Barry' (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year): Atlantic Basin: A weak wave is over the Eastern Atlantic but there does not seem to be much support for long term development.... East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show some 'cool' water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin..... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  

The Latest News Headlines

  • Today will be hot and humid with highs in the lower to mid 90’s inland and near 90 at the coast. There will be scattered afternoon thunderstorms today. Feels-like temps will once again be 100-103 inland and 100+ at the coast.  Showers and storms may dampen some early tailgaters for The Rolling Stones concert (2-5 pm).  Showers and any thunderstorms should either be out of Duval County or loosing steam by 6 pm.  CONTEST:  Pick what song you want to hear The Stones play This weekend the heat and humidity stick around with highs in the mid 90’s with only a few widely scattered showers and storms. The mid 90’s hang around on Monday.  INDEPTH:  What you need to know if you are going to the concert
  • An airman was reportedly shot in the leg Thursday night at Nellis Air Force Base. >>Read more trending news The airman was taken to a hospital with survivable injuries, Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department Lt. Adrian Beas told The Las Vegas Review-Journal. The circumstances surrounding the incident are unclear. Police were called shortly after 9:30 p.m. and found the injured airman near the O’Callaghan Federal Hospital, Beas said. Police and base personnel are investigating how the shooting happened, KVVU-TV reported.
  • UPDATE:  Jacksonville Police has found the missing girls who were the center of a Missing Child Alert activated late Thursday night. Police say the two girls were found safe together in Clay County. According to JSO, the case is being worked as a recovery of runaways. The Clay County Sheriff’s Office says both girls are being spoken with.    ===ORIGINAL STORY:  The Florida Department of Law Enforcement has issued a Missing Child Alert 11-year-old  Addison Terry.  JSO had reported the young girl was missing on Thursday after she ran away from the Youth Crisis Center on Parental Road on the Southside Wednesday night. YCC is not commenting on the specifics on how the child ran off or why she was with them, to begin with. According to the FDLE, Terry maybe with 16-year-old Jade Seidel. JSO says Seidel is another missing teen. The two were last seen in the area of Argyle Forest Boulevard but added they could be headed to Clay County. Anyone with information about their whereabouts is asked to call the FDLE, JSO, or dial 911.
  • The uncle of missing 16-year-old Iyana Sawyer has now been indicted for two counts of first degree murder, and our partner Action News Jax reports the counts relate to Sawyer and her unborn baby. 16-year-old Sawyer was last seen leaving Terry Parker High School in December. Since that time, her uncle, Johnathan Quiles, has been identified as a suspect in her disappearance. Quiles has been in jail since January, on a separate sexual battery charge. Now, the State Attorney’s Office confirms Quiles has been indicted for two counts of first degree murder and one count of sexual battery. Our partner Action News Jax reports Sawyer’s family’s attorney tells them the murder charges are for the teen and her unborn baby. WOKV is working to get court and police records to confirm and learn more about what led to these charges being filed.
  • A toddler has drowned in a pool, in a residential area of Lakeshore South on Jacksonville’s Westside. The Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office responded to the home on San Juan Avenue around 2:20PM. Jacksonville Fire and Rescue was also dispatched, and when emergency responders got on scene, they found witnesses performing CPR on the toddler. Rescue personnel took over CPR and transported the toddler to the hospital, where it died. At this time, JSO is not saying if anyone else was in the pool at the time, but foul play is not suspected in the drowning. They’re also not releasing any additional information about the victim, including the age and gender, but police confirmed in a tweet that this involved a toddler. Police are currently speaking with witnesses at the home, as their investigation continues. The Florida Department of Children and Families is also investigating.

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