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Talking The Tropics with Mike

    The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' *** Though the Atlantic remains active, there are no threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or most of the coastal U.S.  Dangerous rip currents will continue at area beaches along with rough seas & surf due to a combination of distant tropical cyclones & persistent onshore flow. BUSY ATLANTIC BASIN: (1) Humberto, North Atlantic  - has become post tropical & is part of a large, strong ocean storm (2) Jerry over the Central Atlantic - tropical storm WATCH far Northern Lesser Antilles (3) 'Imelda' trough of low pressure inland over Texas & continuing to weaken (4) parade of tropical waves from the Caribbean to Africa....... see why the next few weeks should be active at the bottom of this post. HUMBERTO: Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The has become post tropical over the far N. Atlantic & is now a big ocean storm. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian & Humberto) playing an important role in the track of Jerry. By Monday - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high shifted some to the east.  This essentially left an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  Now Jerry will follow suit with a move north/northeast even farther to the east than Humberto. JERRY: T.D. #10 formed from an African tropical wave & was upgraded to a depression Tue. morning & the 10th tropical storm of the season early Wed. & then to a hurricane Thu. morning while moving steadily west/northwest.  Jerry has reached a zone of high shear, so the tropical cyclone may become mostly steady state/weaken some - high end tropical storm or low end hurricane - into the weekend.  While uncomfortably close to some of the extreme Northern Windward Islands, it looks like Jerry will be fairly distant to the north of the Greater Antilles & even more so from Puerto Rico.   Beyond this weekend, Jerry turns sharply northward following the 'wake' of Humberto & the persistent weakness over the Western Atlantic staying east of the Bahamas & far to the east of the U.S. coast.  Current projections are for Jerry to be nearly 1,000 miles east of Jacksonville late Monday. Bermuda may again be impacted by a hurricane by the middle of next week as Jerry moves into an area favorable for intensification upon turning north then northeastward. IMELDA: Time ran out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT Tue. within hours of being upgraded near the Texas coast with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  The most widespread, heaviest rain is over for Texas but not before catastrophic flooding in & around Beaumont & parts of Houston. More than 2 feet of rain! for parts of SE Texas since Tuesday: CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening but has flared with some disorganized t'storms upon moving into the Eastern & Northern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Western Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.  What will probably become 'Karen' - at this early juncture - looks to stay far out to the east over the open Atlantic.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Karen' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   You will see me fairly often refer to the 'Velocity Potential Anomalies' - usually in stride with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).  In simplest terms, the green lines correlate with rising air which can help lead to conditions favorable for tropical cyclone development.  And such is the case as a very strong 'pulse' of rising air spread from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin.  & right on cue - 3 named storms over the E. Pacific & now 2 named storms over the Atlantic.  This pattern of the MJO implies an active period over the Atlantic that may very well continue into the first 10 days of Oct.  Realize active does not necessarily mean 'bad' - as in landfalling.  Track will come down to the orientation of the jet stream, Bermuda high & other large & even small scale weather features that will ultimately steer the tropical cyclones.  Bottom line: stay up to date on what's going in the tropics! Humberto & Jerry over the Atlantic (+ Imelda remnants).... Kiko, Mario & Lorena over the E. Pacific: Lorena hit the SW coast of Mexico before moving back over warm water & re-intensifying. The storm will move near the Baja Peninsula through the weekend while interacting with Mario to the southwest.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' *** Though the Atlantic is very active, there are no threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or most of the coastal U.S.  Dangerous rip currents will continue at area beaches along with rough seas & surf due to a combination of distant tropical cyclones & persistent onshore flow. BUSY ATLANTIC BASIN: (1) hurricane Humberto, North Atlantic  (2) Jerry over the Central Atlantic - tropical storm WATCH far Northern Lesser Antilles (3) 'Imelda' low pressure area inland over Texas - severe flooding SE Texas (4) parade of tropical waves from the Caribbean to Africa....... see why the next few weeks should be active at the bottom of this post. HURRICANE HUMBERTO: The combination of Humberto far to the east/northeast & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly & slightly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue through the weekend. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The hurricane sideswiped Bermuda Wed. with the eye moving north & west of the island but close enough for a brief period of sustained hurricane force winds. Weather conditions are rapidly improving on the island as Humberto moves away. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian & Humberto) playing an important role in the track of Jerry. Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high shifted some to the east.  This essentially left an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic.  Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: JERRY: T.D. #10 formed from an African tropical wave & was upgraded to a depression Tue. morning & the 10th tropical storm of the season early Wed. & then to a hurricane Thu. morning while moving steadily west/northwest.  Though thriving for the moment, Jerry will be moving through a zone of high shear, so the tropical cyclone may become mostly steady state/weaken some - high end tropical storm or low end hurricane - into the weekend.  While uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, it looks like Jerry will be fairly distant to the north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, Jerry turns sharply northward following the 'wake' of Humberto & the persistent weakness over the Western Atlantic staying east of the Bahamas & far to the east of the U.S. coast.  Current projections are for Jerry to be some 800 east of Jacksonville late Monday. Bermuda may again be impacted by a hurricane by the middle of next week as Jerry moves into an area favorable for intensification upon turning north then northeastward. IMELDA: Time ran out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT Tue. within hours of being upgraded near the Texas coast with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & as far east as Louisiana.  Catastrophic flooding has been occurring in & around Beaumont. More than 2 feet of rain! for parts of SE Texas since Tuesday: CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has now flared with some disorganized t'storms upon moving into the Eastern & Northern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Western Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Karen' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   You will see me fairly often refer to the 'Velocity Potential Anomalies' - usually in stride with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).  In simplest terms, the green lines correlate with rising air which can help lead to conditions favorable for tropical cyclone development.  And such is the case as a very strong 'pulse' of rising air spread from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin.  & right on cue - 3 named storms over the E. Pacific & now 2 named storms over the Atlantic.  This pattern of the MJO implies an active period over the Atlantic that may very well continue into the first 10 days of Oct.  Realize active does not necessarily mean 'bad' - as in landfalling.  Track will come down to the orientation of the jet stream, Bermuda high & other large & even small scale weather features that will ultimately steer the tropical cyclones.  Bottom line: stay up to date on what's going in the tropics! Humberto & Jerry over the Atlantic (+ Imelda remnants).... Kiko, Mario & Lorena over the E. Pacific: Lorena will be very close to the SW coast of Mexico through Fri.  If Lorena survives the land interaction, the storm will then move to near the Baja Peninsula by the weekend.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' *** Though the Atlantic is very active, there are no threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or most of the coastal U.S.  Dangerous rip currents will continue at area beaches along with rough seas & surf due to a combination of distant tropical cyclones & persistent onshore flow. BUSY ATLANTIC BASIN: (1) hurricane Humberto, Central Atlantic  (2) Jerry over the Central Atlantic - tropical storm WATCH for Northern Lesser Antilles (3) 'Imelda' low pressure area inland over Texas - severe flooding SE Texas (4) parade of tropical waves from the Caribbean to Africa....... see why the next few weeks should be active at the bottom of this post. HURRICANE HUMBERTO: The combination of Humberto far to the east/northeast & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly & slightly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue through the weekend. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The hurricane sideswiped Bermuda with the eye moving north & west of the island but close enough for a brief period of sustained hurricane force winds. Weather conditions are rapidly improving on the island as Humberto moves away. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian & Humberto) playing an important role in the track of Jerry. Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high shifted some to the east.  This essentially left an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic.  Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: JERRY: T.D. #10 formed from an African tropical wave & was upgraded to a depression Tue. morning & the 10th tropical storm of the season early Wed. with a move steadily - though slowly - west/northwest.  Though thriving for the moment, Jerry will be moving through a zone of high shear, so the tropical cyclone may become mostly steady state - high end tropical storm or low end hurricane - into the weekend.  While uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, it looks like Jerry will be north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, Jerry turns sharply northward following the 'wake' of Humberto & the persistent weakness over the Western Atlantic staying east of the Bahamas & far to the east of the U.S. coast. Bermuda may again be impacted by a hurricane by the middle of next week as Jerry moves into an area favorable for intensification upon turning north then northeastward. IMELDA: Time ran out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT Tue. within hours of being upgraded near the Texas coast with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & as far east as Louisiana.  Catastrophic flooding has been occurring in & around Beaumont. More than 2 feet of rain! for parts of SE Texas since Tuesday: CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has now flared with some disorganized t'storms upon moving into the Eastern & Northern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Western Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Karen' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   You will see me fairly often refer to the 'Velocity Potential Anomalies' - usually in stride with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).  In simplest terms, the green lines correlate with rising air which can help lead to conditions favorable for tropical cyclone development.  And such is the case as a very strong 'pulse' of rising air spread from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin.  & right on cue - 3 named storms over the E. Pacific & now 2 named storms over the Atlantic.  This pattern of the MJO implies an active period over the Atlantic that may very well continue into the first 10 days of Oct.  Realize active does not necessarily mean 'bad' - as in landfalling.  Track will come down to the orientation of the jet stream, Bermuda high & other large & even small scale weather features that will ultimately steer the tropical cyclones.  Bottom line: stay up to date on what's going in the tropics! Humberto & Jerry over the Atlantic (+ Imelda remnants).... Kiko, Mario & Lorena over the E. Pacific: Lorena will be very close to the SW coast of Mexico through Fri.  If Lorena survives the land interaction, the storm will then move to near the Baja Peninsula by the weekend.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' BUSY ATLANTIC BASIN: (1) hurricane Humberto, Central Atlantic - hurricane WARNING for Bermuda (2) tropical storm Jerry over the Central Atlantic (3) 'Imelda' low pressure area inland over Texas (4) parade of tropical waves from the Eastern Caribbean to Africa....... see why the next few weeks should be active at the bottom of this post. HURRICANE HUMBERTO: The combination of Humberto well to the east & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly & slightly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue through this week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen with a broad eye that's becoming more & more symmetrical.  Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening into Wed. & Humberto could become a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week where a hurricane WARNING has been issued.  Hurricane hunter aircraft have found an ever widening wind field. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the track of Humberto & its 'followe', Jerry. Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high shifted some to the east.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic.  The eye will miss Bermuda but the large wind field will result in at least hurricane force wind gusts for the island into early Thu. not to mention very high seas, rough surf & some heavy rain. Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10, NOW TROPICAL STORM JERRY: #10 formed from an African tropical wave & was upgraded to a depression Tue. morning & the 10th tropical storm of the season early Wed. with a move steadily - though slowly - west/northwest.  Jerry will have to battle some shear by late week so the tropical cyclone may become mostly steady state - high end tropical storm or low end hurricane - into the weekend.  Though uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, present indications are that Jerry will be north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, EARLY indications are that Jerry turns more northward staying east of the Bahamas & the U.S. east coast but whether or not the tropical cyclone makes a full (harmless) turn to the north & stays out to sea is still something to be carefully watched. A weaker system will be steered more to the west by the low level prevailing easterlies & the strengthening of the Bermuda high to the north. Once - & if - Jerry is stronger/deeper, there will be a more northwar tendency.  Do stay tuned. IMELDA: Luckily... time ran out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT Tue. within hours of being upgraded near the Texas coast with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & as far east as Louisiana. CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has now flared with some disorganized t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern & Northern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Karen' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:   You will see me fairly often refer to the 'Velocity Potential Anomalies' - usually in stride with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).  In simplest terms, the green lines correlate with rising air which can help lead to conditions favorable for tropical cyclone development.  And such is the case as a very strong 'pulse' of rising air spread from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin.  & right on cue - 3 named storms over the E. Pacific & now 2 named storms over the Atlantic.  This pattern of the MJO implies an active period over the Atlantic that may very well continue into the first 10 days of Oct.  Realize active does not necessarily mean 'bad' - as in landfalling.  Track will come down to the orientation of the jet stream, Bermuda high & other large & even small scale weather features that will ultimately steer the tropical cyclones.  Bottom line: stay up to date on what's going in the tropics! Humberto & Jerry over the Atlantic (+ Imelda remnants).... Kiko, Mario & Lorena over the E. Pacific: Lorena will move very close to the SW coast of Mexico through Fri.  If Lorena survives possible land interaction, the storm will then move to near the Baja Peninsula by late in the weekend.
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' ATLANTIC BASIN 'HOT SPOTS': (1) hurricane Humberto - hurricane WARNING for Bermuda (2) tropical depression #10 over the Central Atlantic (3) tropical storm 'Imelda' over the extreme NW Gulf of Mexico (4) parade of tropical waves from the Eastern Caribbean to Africa....... HURRICANE HUMBERTO: There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue much of this week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen with a broad eye that's becoming more & more symmetrical.  Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening into Wed. & Humberto could become a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week where a hurricane WARNING has been issued.  Hurricane hunter aircraft have found an ever widening wind field. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic. Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10: #10 formed from an African tropical wave that's been moving steadily - though slowly - west/northwest.  The depression should pretty quickly become a tropical storm ('Jerry')... & eventually a hurricane.  Though uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, present indications are that #10 will be north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, EARLY indications are that #10 turns more northward but whether or not the tropical cyclone makes a full (harmless) turn to the north & stays out to sea is still something to be carefully watched.  The Bermuda high looks to be re-strengthening late in the month, so #10 may not necessarily be a 'clean up & out'.  And if #10 does end up recurving there's other tropical trouble to follow (see below). Recent global model forecast trends are farther west next week likely due to a combination of a weaker system initially being more steered by the low level prevailing easterlies & the strengthening of the Bermuda high to the north.  Do stay tuned. TROPICAL STORM IMELDA: A wider view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that helped spawn a surface low over the Northwest Gulf quickly leading to the development of tropical storm Imelda.  Luckily... time is running out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & College Station. CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm (#10) this week & yet again possibly the following week.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has now flared with some disorganized t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Jerry' & 'Karen' are next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' ATLANTIC BASIN 'HOT SPOTS': (1) hurricane Humberto - tropical storm WARNING/hurricane WATCH for Bermuda (2) tropical depression #10 over the Central Atlantic (3) low pressure over the extreme NW Gulf of Mexico (4) parade of tropical waves between the Caribbean & W. Africa HURRICANE HUMBERTO: There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue much of this week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen with a broad & somewhat ragged eye.  Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening into Wed. & Humberto could become a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week where a tropical storm WARNING & hurricane WATCH have been issued.  Hurricane hunter aircraft have found an ever widening wind field. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic. Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10: #10 formed from an African tropical wave that's been moving steadily - though slowly - west/northwest.  The depression should pretty quickly become a tropical storm... & eventually a hurricane.  Though uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, present indications are that #10 will be north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, EARLY indications are that #10 turns more northward but whether or not the tropical cyclone makes a full (harmless) turn to the north & stays out to sea is still something to be carefully watched.  The Bermuda high looks to be re-strengthening late in the month, so #10 may not necessarily be a 'clean up & out'.  And if #10 does end up recurving there's other tropical trouble to follow (see below). EXTREME NW GULF/TEXAS DISTURBANCE: A wider view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's developed a surface low over the Northwest Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity has been persistent across the Central & now Northwest Gulf.  But time is running out for significant development as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Wednesday.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & College Station. CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC: There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within this week (#10) & yet again the following week.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has flared with some t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps for the W. Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to 'mix out'): While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue much of this week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen with a broad & somewhat ragged eye.  Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening into Wed. & Humberto could become a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week where a tropical storm WARNING hs been issued. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  After a brief 'rest' northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic. Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: A wider view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's trying to develop a surface low over the Northwest Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity  - though disorganized - has been persistent across the Central & now Northwest Gulf.  But time is running out for significant development as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Wednesday.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & College Station. There are a couple of active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within this week & yet again the following week.  Regarding the first wave - '97-L' - global forecast models are generally showing a turn north in the long range implying no threat to the U.S. BUT it's very early & the steering influences will still undergo some changes leading up to the last 10 days of this month. Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has flared with some t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps for the W. Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply 'wait out' the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east/southeast & high pressure to the north will result in dangerous conditions at our beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue much of the week. Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen despite the persistence of shear. Banding is increasing & the heavy bands of rain & storms are wrapping around the center with an eye becoming more & more evident.    Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening through at least Tue. & Humberto could become a Cat. 2 or even a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the eventual track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.  The GFS model does turn Humberto briefly north or even a little northwest late in the week due a new incoming trough but chances are the hurricane will be far enough east by then to maintain a more north/northeast heading. The Gulf Stream will add some 'energy' for strengthening (though some upwelling remains from Dorian).  The center of Humberto will stay 300+ miles east & southeast of Jacksonville! Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: A wide view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's trying to develop a surface low over the Northwest Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity  - though disorganized - has been persistent across the Central & Northern Gulf.  But time is running out for significant development as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Tuesday. Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District: Thanks to Dorian, sea surface temps. have dropped noticeably from the Northern Bahamas extending northward for hundreds of miles.  Upwelling like this can last for at least a week depending on weather & wind conditions.  Otherwise.... sea surface temps. remain generally above avg. over the Central Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico. There are a couple of active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic with long term potential & track the big question mark.  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within this week & yet again the following week.  Global forecast models are generally showing a turn north in the long range implying no threat to the U.S. from the first wave. BUT it's very early & the steering influences will still undergo some changes leading up to the last 10 days of this month. Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has flared with some t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps for the W. Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east/southeast & high pressure to the north will result in a broad onshore (out of the east/northeast) flow that will create dangerous conditions at our beaches.  So - through Mon. morning: * a few heavy but brief showers streaming west/southwest off the Atlantic.  But there will be plenty of dry hours & the fast movement of the bands/cells will result in total rainfall amounts less than an inch. * rough seas & surf with a high rip current risk.  Best advice is to stay out of the ocean this weekend.  Breakers at our beaches will average 5 - 7 feet. * minor flooding along the coast as well as the St. Johns River & its tributaries, especially at times of high tide with some astronomical boost from the full moon phase. * breezy to windy with winds out of the east/northeast that will veer to out of the north then northwest Monday - offshore winds for surfers! Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - near & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen despite the persistence of shear. Banding is increasing & the heavy bands of rain & storms are wrapping around the center with an eye becoming more & more evident.    Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening the next few days & Humberto could become a Cat. 2 or even a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the eventual track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.   The Gulf Stream will add some 'energy' for strengthening (though some upwelling remains from Dorian).  The center of Humberto will stay 300+ miles east & southeast of Jacksonville! Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: A wide view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's trying to develop a surface low through next week over the Western Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity  - though disorganized - has been persistent across the Central & Northern Gulf.  But time may be running out for significant development over the Gulf as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Tuesday. Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District: 5-day rainfall forecasts from the European & GFS: Thanks to Dorian, sea surface temps. have dropped noticeably from the Northern Bahamas extending northward for hundreds of miles.  Upwelling like this can last for at least a week depending on weather & wind conditions.  Otherwise.... sea surface temps. remain generally above avg. over the Central Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico. There are a couple of active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic with long term potential & track the big question mark.  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within the next week or two.  Global forecast models are generally showing a turn north in the long range implying no threat to the U.S. from the first wave. BUT it's very early & the steering influences will still undergo some changes leading up to the last 10 days of this month.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  
  • The 'Buresh Bottom Line': Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.   STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android WATCH 'Surviving the Storm' READ the First Alert Hurricane Center 'Survival Guide' RECAP 'Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast' There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east & southeast & high pressure to the north will result in a broad onshore (out of the east/northeast) flow that will create dangerous conditions at our beaches.  So - through Mon. morning: * scattered showers & isolated t'storms streaming west off the Atlantic.  But there will be plenty of dry hours & the fast movement of the bands/cells will result in total rainfall amounts less than an inch except for the few localized areas that manage to see some 'training' of cells. * rough seas & surf with a high rip current risk.  Best advice is to stay out of the ocean this weekend.  Breakers at our beaches will average 5 - 7 feet. * minor flooding along the coast as well as the St. Johns River & its tributaries, especially at times of high tide with some astronomical boost from the full moon phase. * breezy to windy with winds out of the east/northeast Sunday that will veer to out of the north then northwest Monday - offshore winds for surfers! Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon then to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening - over & near the Eastern Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen despite the persistence of shear. Banding is increasing & the heavy bands of rain & storms - still most prominent over the north & east part of the circulation - are gradually wrapping around the center.  There are occasional views of a developing eye on satellite photos.  For the hard hit Northern Bahamas, this wave will bring some gusty winds & showers, but it looks like most of the real heavy rain & strongest winds will stay north & east of the hardest hit islands.   Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening the next few days & Humberto looks to be a hurricane the first few days of the week while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There may be some impact on Bermuda mid to late week. The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the eventual track.  Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - thre is a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf 'peels' away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an 'out' well to the east of Fl.   The Gulf Stream will add some 'energy' for strengthening (though some upwelling remains from Dorian).  The center of Humberto will stay 300+ miles east & southeast of Jacksonville! Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east: A wide view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that's trying to develop a surface low through next week over the Western Gulf that will need to be monitored for tropical development.  T'storm activity  - though disorganized - has been persistent across the Central & Northern Gulf.  But time may be running out for significant development over the Gulf as the surface low pressure will move inland over Texas by Tuesday. Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District: 5-day rainfall forecasts from the European & GFS: Thanks to Dorian, sea surface temps. have dropped noticeably from the Northern Bahamas extending northward for hundreds of miles.  Upwelling like this can last for at least a week depending on weather & wind conditions.  Otherwise.... sea surface temps. remain generally above avg. over the Central Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico. There are a couple of active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic with long term potential & track the big question mark.  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & 'cipher'.  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm - 'Imelda' &/or 'Jerry' within the next week.  Global forecast models are generally showing a turn north in the long range implying no threat to the U.S. BUT it's very early & the steering influences will still undergo some changes leading up to the last 10 days of this month.     An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. 2019 names..... 'Imelda' is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:   East Atlantic: Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: The Atlantic Basin: Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air): Deep oceanic heat content: Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the 'Main Development Region' (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems.... SE U.S. surface map: Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic: Surface analysis of the Gulf: Caribbean:  

The Latest News Headlines

  • As the city prepares to demolish the Jacksonville Landing, a team is working to salvage some of the items inside. The biggest item Annie Murphy and her team at Eco Relics have salvaged so far from the building is the bar top from Hooters. It's for sale at their shop on Stockton Street.  'We're all about keeping stuff out of landfills, that's our mission,' Murphy said.  They expect to salvage up to 160 items from the iconic landmark before it is torn down, from doors and windows to artwork and lighting.  'It is really cool to see people recognizing certain things, longtime Jacksonville residents,' Murphy said.  She said they were able to salvage some items inside the buildings along the river earlier this month. They can't access the rest of the building until the last tenant moves out in October.  A city spokesperson said over the next couple of weeks, the contractor will be stripping out items not attached to the building structure and then heavy equipment will begin the demolition.  It's expected to be complete by June 2020.  Murphy said the pieces of Jacksonville history her team pulls from the building will be for sale as they're salvaged.
  • A North Carolina sheriff stands accused of urging the murder of a former deputy who had a recording of him using racially offensive language, authorities say. Granville County Sheriff Brindell Wilkins was indicted Monday on two counts of felony obstruction of justice, according to court records. Wilkins is accused of trying to get another man to kill former Deputy Joshua Freeman, who he believed was going to expose his racist talk. >> Read more trending news  Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman, who is prosecuting the case, said Wilkins' Aug. 12, 2014, phone conversation with the 'well-known' man who threatened Joshua Freeman's life was caught on tape, according to The News & Observer in Raleigh. Lorrin Freeman and Joshua Freeman are not related. Joshua Freeman worked for the Sheriff's Office from November 2011 to August 2014 but was let go in the days leading up to Wilkins' alleged crimes, WRAL in Raleigh reported. Wilkins, who was reelected in 2018 for a third four-year term, is accused of advising the unnamed man to kill Joshua Freeman, 'whom the defendant knew to have expressed his intention to soon publicly reveal a purported audio recording of the sheriff using racially offensive language to authorities in Raleigh,' the indictment states. The court records do not detail what Wilkins is alleged to have said, or what ultimately happened to the recording of his words. The indictment against the sheriff alleges Wilkins encouraged the man to 'take care of it' and said, 'The only way you gonna stop him is kill him.' According to the indictment, Wilkins counseled the would-be gunman on how to kill Joshua Freeman in a way to avoid getting caught. He offered two tips, according to the document: Get rid of the murder weapon and keep quiet. 'You ain't got the weapon, you ain't got nothing to go on,' Wilkins allegedly told the man, the court records allege. 'The only way we find out these murder things is people talk. You can't tell nobody nothin', not a thing.' Wilkins and the individual discussed a time in which to kill Joshua Freeman and a location that would ensure it would be Wilkins' own Granville County Sheriff's Office investigators who would get the case, the indictment says. Wilkins assured the man he would not tell investigators of his prior knowledge of the crime. The indictment accuses Wilkins of failing to prevent harm to Joshua Freeman or warn him of the 'credible threat' to his life. It alleges the sheriff also failed to seize the gun the other man planned to use, despite the person showing him the weapon at one point. 'The defendant failed to properly execute his duties because of his personal animosity towards Joshua Freeman,' the indictment states. Joshua Freeman was never harmed, though the indictment offers no indication why the alleged plot failed. Wilkins went before a magistrate Monday and was released on $20,000 unsecured bond. Court records show he was ordered to have no contact with anyone named in the indictment. He was also ordered to surrender his passport, if he has one. Read the indictment against Granville County Sheriff Brindell Wilkins below.  Brindell Wilkins Indictment by National Content Desk on Scribd 'No one is above the law,' Lorrin Freeman said Monday, according to WRAL. 'It is always painful when someone who has the public trust faces these types of allegations for voters who put them in that place. 'Any time you have someone who is sworn to uphold the public trust, to protect their community, to investigate and report crimes, allegedly engage in this type of conduct, it is something that needs to be brought to justice, and so we will continue to follow the evidence in this case.' Several followers of Wilkins' public Facebook page offered support in the wake of the indictment. 'You will always have our support,' one woman wrote. 'Praying for you and your family.' 'Our friendship goes back 30 years or more and you have always been a great friend to me,' another woman wrote. 'You were there for me many times. I believe in you and you have my support, always.' Lorrin Freeman said Wake County is handling the case because Mike Waters, her counterpart in Granville County, could potentially become an important witness at trial. Waters, who addressed the case in a statement on his office's Facebook page, wrote to Lorrin Freeman in November to ask her to look into the case. Watch Wake County DA Lorrin Freeman discuss the case below, courtesy of the News & Observer. WRAL reported that Joshua Freeman, who Waters represented in 2014 while in private practice, gave the future prosecutor the tape recording of Wilkins' conversation with the man who talked of killing the former deputy. It was not clear Friday how Freeman obtained the recording. Waters said he immediately turned the tape over to the FBI. The Washington Post reported that Waters met with North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation agents about the recording in January 2017, but nothing happened. 'Quite frankly, it did not get to the top of their investigative list,' Lorrin Freeman told WRAL about SBI agents. Waters gave the recording to a different SBI agent in October 2018, but still, no investigation was initiated, the Post reported. That is when Waters turned to Lorrin Freeman to initiate a probe into the sheriff. She agreed. 'I have reviewed this recording,' Lorrin Freeman wrote to SBI agents, according to the Post. 'It contains a conversation between two individuals, one of whom appears to be the Granville County sheriff, about a former deputy sheriff and culminates in a discussion about committing a homicide.' In his Facebook statement, Waters expressed frustration at the amount of time it took to get an investigation going. 'At all times since (turning over the recording), I have provided assistance to investigators, and once Ms. Freeman opened a criminal investigation, have urged that this matter be given investigative priority,' Waters wrote. 'I understand it is a matter of great importance to the people of Granville County, and it has been a point of frustration that the investigative process has not been more expeditious.' He wrote that any allegations of wrongdoing by law enforcement are troubling, particularly when they involve a sheriff elected by the community. 'Over the next few months, my office will continue to lend assistance to the ongoing investigation as requested, while we continue to do our daily work of protecting victims, prosecuting those who violate the law and seeing that justice is administered,' Waters said. WRAL reported Lorrin Freeman said she worked to obtain obstruction charges against Wilkins because obstruction would be easier to prove in the five-year old case than solicitation of murder or conspiracy. The Granville County Board of Commissioners met Tuesday to discuss the indictment, but County Attorney Jim Wrenn said the board has no authority to remove Wilkins, an elected official, from office as his criminal case winds its way through the court system, WRAL reported. Lorrin Freeman confirmed that fact to the News & Observer. 'Technically, he can continue to serve if he chooses, until convicted,' Freeman told the newspaper. Spectrum News' Charlotte bureau reported that Wilkins has indicated he will not step down. Wrenn said he is considering trying to get Wilkins out of office through the courts but wants to hear the recording himself before making that decision. Gerry Cohen, former special counsel to the North Carolina General Assembly, said state law has a provision allowing a judge to suspend a sheriff and allow a county commission to appoint a temporary replacement pending the outcome of a criminal case. 'The statute is there to allow removal of sheriff,' Cohen told Spectrum News. 'One of six causes is, in fact, conviction of felony. Others are some of the things in his indictment, like willful misconduct, corruption, willful neglect or refusal to perform duties of his office. Some of them match the charges in his indictment.' The News & Observer reported that the probe into Wilkins' alleged actions against Joshua Freeman has led to investigations of the Granville County Sheriff's Office's accounting practices, as well as the operations of its drug unit. Freeman was a member of the drug unit when he was with the agency. 'Part of this investigation has centered on why this sort of conversation would have occurred, what the underlying motivation would have been,' Lorrin Freeman said Tuesday, according to the newspaper. 'Additional information has come to light regarding operations and accounting practices of the Granville County narcotics interdiction team.' Those investigations remain ongoing.
  • President Donald Trump called reports that a U.S. intelligence official filed a whistleblower complaint against him last month 'a ridiculous story' while speaking Friday to reporters in the Oval Office. >> Read more trending news  According to the Washington Post, the president made an unspecified 'promise' to an unidentified foreign leader that concerned the intelligence official. The official filed a complaint Aug. 12, two anonymous former U.S. officials told the newspaper, though lawmakers said Thursday they had yet to see the complaint. The intelligence community's inspector general, Michael Atkinson, appeared before the House Intelligence Committee behind closed doors Thursday but declined, under administration orders, to reveal the substance of the complaint. Update 7:40 p.m. EDT Sept. 20: Former Vice President Joe Biden has released a statement on the whistleblower's complaint against President Trump. In it, Biden describes Trump's alleged behavior as 'abhorrent' and calls on him to release a full transcript of the call 'so that the American people can be judged for themselves.' The entire statement reads: Update 4:40 p.m. EDT Sept 20: The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Trump pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate the son of Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. The Journal reported Trump asked Zelensky to work with Rudy Giuliani to determine whether Biden 'worked to shield from investigation a Ukrainian gas company with ties to his son, Hunter Biden.'  Trump made the request about eight times during a phone call in July, according to the Journal. Trump was asked Friday if be brought up Biden in the call with Zelenskiy, and he answered, 'It doesn't matter what I discussed.' But then he used the moment to urge the media 'to look into' Biden's background with Ukraine. Trump and Zelenskiy are to meet on the sidelines of the United Nations next week. Update 1 p.m. EDT Sept. 20: President Donald Trump told reporters Friday that the person behind the complaint filed against him was a 'partisan whistleblower' who 'shouldn't even have information,' though he added that he did not know the person's identity. 'I don't even know exactly who you're talking about,' Trump said. 'I don't know the identity of the whistleblower. I just hear it's a partisan person, meaning it comes out from another party.' Trump said Friday that he's spoken with several world leaders and that his conversations with them were 'always appropriate.' Details surrounding the complaint remained unclear Friday afternoon, though The Washington Post and The New York Times reported at least some of the allegations centered on Ukraine. Both newspapers cited unidentified sources. Asked if he knew if the whistleblower's complaint centered on a July 25 phone call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, the president responded 'I really don't know' but continued to insist any phone call he made with a head of state was 'perfectly fine and respectful.' Update 9:50 p.m. EDT Sept. 19: The whistleblower complaint against Donald Trump centers around Ukraine, two anonymous sources confirmed to The Washington Post Thursday evening. The New York Times and ABC News are also citing anonymous sources, saying the complaint involves Ukraine. It's not clear exactly how Ukraine fits into the allegations. However, Trump spoke on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky two and a half weeks before the complaint was filed, the Post reported. That call was already under investigation by House Democrats, who are looking into whether Trump and his attorney, Rudy Giuliani, tried to manipulate the Ukrainian government into helping with Trump's re-election campaign, according to The Post. Update 1:45 p.m. EDT Sept. 19:  The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee suggested Thursday that lawmakers could ask a judge to compel White House officials to share with Congress a whistleblower complaint allegedly filed last month against Trump. The complaint was filed Aug. 12 and involved an undisclosed 'promise' made by the president to an unidentified foreign leader, CNN reported Atkinson declined to share details of the complaint during a closed meeting of the House Intelligence Committee on Thursday, citing a lack of authorization. 'We do know that the Department of Justice has been involved in the decision to withhold that information from Congress,' Schiff told reporters Thursday. 'We do not know -- because we cannot get an answer to the question -- about whether the White House is also involved in preventing this information from coming to Congress.' He said lawmakers had yet to see the complaint by Thursday afternoon. 'We do not know whether press reports are accurate or inaccurate about the contents of the complaint,' he said. Earlier Thursday, the president denied having done anything inappropriate. Update 1 p.m. EDT Sept. 19: Trump on Thursday denied any wrongdoing after reports claimed a whistleblower had come forward with a complaint about the president making an unspecified promise to a foreign leader. 'Another Fake News story out there - it never ends!' Trump wrote Thursday in a tweet. 'Virtually anytime I speak on the phone to a foreign leader, I understand that there may be many people listening from various U.S. agencies, not to mention those from the other country itself. 'Knowing all of this, is anybody dumb enough to believe that I would say something inappropriate with a foreign leader while on such a potentially 'heavily populated' call. I would only do what is right anyway, and only do good for the USA!' Original report: The promise occurred during a phone conversation with the leader, one source told the Post. Details about the alleged pledge and the leader's identity was not immediately available. Although Michael Atkinson, the intelligence community's inspector general, believed that the whistleblower complaint warranted 'urgent concern,' acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire so far has declined to provide information about the communication to the House Intelligence Committee, the Post reported. A closed hearing with Atkinson is slated for Thursday, the committee said. Maguire is expected to testify publicly Sept. 26, according to the committee's chairman, U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
  • A Massachusetts man in his 70s has died after contracting Eastern equine encephalitis, or EEE, state health officials said Friday. >> Read more trending news  Authorities said the man was a resident of Freetown, a town about 50 miles south of Boston, according to WFXT. 'Our most sincere sympathy, thoughts and prayers go out to the victim, to their family and their loved ones,' town officials said in a news release. The man was identified as having the 10th confirmed human case of EEE in the state. Officials said eight other cases of EEE have been confirmed in animals, including seven horses and a goat. The man's death was the second reported in the state from EEE. At least two other EEE-related deaths have been reported in recent weeks in Rhode Island and Michigan. 'We continue to emphasize the need for people to protect themselves from mosquito bites,' Massachusetts Public Health Commissioner Monica Bharel said Friday in a news release. “The unusually warm weather expected this weekend will increase outdoor activity among people and mosquitoes. It is absolutely essential that people take steps to avoid being bitten by a mosquito.” Officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said several cases of EEE are reported each year, most often in states along the Gulf Coast. The mosquito-borne virus is rare, but serious, and can affect people of all ages, Massachusetts health officials said. Boston25News.com contributed to this report.
  • Here is a look at what impeachment is and why it doesn’t necessarily mean removal from office. How does impeachment work? Impeachment was established by the framers of the Constitution as a way to accuse a president of a crime and to hold a trial to determine if he is guilty of that crime. The Constitution lays out two specific actions, treason and bribery, that could lead to impeachment and removal of a president from office. The system also allows for a broader category to accuse a president of crime, although that category is more vague. A president can also be charged with and found guilty of “high crimes and misdemeanors.” What exactly constitutes high crimes and misdemeanors is not defined in the Constitution, making impeachment on that basis more difficult. By design, it is not easy to get rid of a president. Here are the steps in the process for impeaching a president: First, an impeachment resolution must be introduced by a member of the House of Representatives. The speaker of the House must then direct the U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary (or a special committee) to hold a hearing on the resolution to decide whether to put the measure to a vote by the full chamber and when to hold such a vote. A simple majority of the Judiciary Committee must approve the resolution. If the Judiciary Committee approves the resolution, it moves to a full vote on the House floor. If a simple majority of the those present and voting in the House approve an article of impeachment, then the president is impeached. The procedure then moves to the Senate where a “trial” is held to determine if the president committed a crime. There is no set procedure for the trial. How it is conducted would be set by the Senate leadership. Members of the House serve as “managers” in the Senate trial. Managers serve a similar role as prosecutors do in a criminal trial, they present evidence during the procedure. The president would have counsel to represent him at the Senate process. The chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court presides over the trial. Senators listen to the evidence presented, including closing arguments from each side and retire to deliberate. Senators then reconvene and vote on whether the president is guilty or not guilty of the crimes he is accused of. It takes a two-thirds vote of the Senate to convict. If the president is found guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president is sworn-in as president. The hearing in the Senate, along with a charge in the House that the president has committed a crime is not a legal one. No penalty, other than removal from office, is brought against a president in an impeachment hearing. Impeachment trials have been held twice in the country’s history -- for President Andrew Johnson and for President Bill Clinton -- and both ended in acquittals: meaning the presidents were impeached by the House, but not convicted and removed from office by the Senate. One vote kept Johnson from being convicted of firing the secretary of war in 1868, which went against a tenure act. In 1999, the Senate was 22 votes shy of convicting Clinton of perjury and obstruction of justice stemming from a sexual harassment lawsuit filed against him by Paula Jones.

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