Buresh Blog: Infamous Ian - A Blow by Blow

Jacksonville, FL — The “Buresh Blog” will take a week off then will be updated again the week of Oct. 17th.

BUT “Talking the Tropics With Mike” is updated everyday through Nov. 30th.

So Hurricane Ian is sure to be the next ‘I’ name retired (the most names retired since 2000 start with the letter ‘I’, most recenlty - Ida in 2021) after vicious hits on Western Cuba & especially the southwest coast of Florida followed by a deluge across the middle of Fl., a beach beating on the upper east half of the coast of Fl. then yet another landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC.

On Sept. 19th - 9 days before the SW Fl. landfall - I posted in “Talking the Tropics With Mike”: “A more southern latitude wave that moved off of Africa late last week is now roughly half way between Africa & the Caribbean at a much lower latitude than it predecessors. Both the GFS & European global models have latched onto this wave now with potential development over the Caribbean by the weekend. It’s possible the wave will enter the Gulf of Mexico thereafter. Models had been mostly “ignoring” this wave over the last several days, but this is a wave to keep a close eye on over the next week to 10 days.”

The next day - on Sept. 20th (8 days before Fl. landfall) - this was the first line in “TTTWM”: “** FIRST ALERT! ** - Anyone living in - or traveling to - the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Yucatan Peninsula &/or the U.S. gulf coast should stay up to date on the latest forecast for a storm likely to develop - first - over the Caribbean then possible move over the Gulf of Mexico **. I followed with this in my discussion: “It looks like this disturbance will stay south of recently hard hit (Fiona) Puerto Rico & Dominican Republic. The time table - *for right now* is Central/Eastern Caribbean through the weekend... near Jamaica early next week... the NW Caribbean by the middle of next week... into/over the Gulf of Mexico by late next week. Still very early on the path & strength of this potential storm. There will be changes, stay up to date!”

It was clear Ian was going to form when models became pretty unanimous on Mon., Sept. 19th that a tropical wave - which had come off the coast of Africa nearly a week earlier & was approaching the Caribbean with an uptick in convection - would encounter favorable conditions over the Caribbean. Ian struggled early on as a tropical depression then weak tropical storm when the wave was upgraded Sept. 23rd. A combination of mid & upper level shear + close proximity to the S. American coast led to little change while steadily moving W/NW. A surface low pressure system did fairly quickly emerge from the poorly organized disturbance embedded within a large area of “percolating” t’storm activity. But eventually - like an ice skater pulling in their arms - the circulation & bands of t’storms tightened & Ian steadily began strengthening reaching hurricane strength Sept. 26th reaching major Cat. 3 status just before making landfall on the west coast of Cuba early on Sept. 27th. The storm continued to intensify over the Southeast Gulf including a period of explosive strengthening after an eyewall replacement cycle early Wed., Sept. 28th. Ian then weakened while traversing Fl. reaching the east coast of Fl. as a tropical storm Thu., Sept. 29th. Ian regained hurricane status - albeit rather hybrid-looking on satellite imagery - a little more than 100 miles E/SE of Jacksonville late Thu. followed by the final landfall as a Cat. 1 near Myrtle Beach, SC Fri. afternoon, Sept. 30th & was declared post-tropical by late afternoon. The last NHC advisory was issued late Sat., Oct. 1st.

As for the models & their accuracy. Well - in short - the models were all over the place. The more typically dependent GFS or European had their moments but also stumbled a good deal. The GFS American model was pretty good early on until the track across the SE Gulf then into Fl. not catching on to the latter part of the track (across Fl.) until just 24-48 before landfall. The model has ranged from the Western Gulf to the west coast of Fl. but was generally centered on NW Fl. or the Panhandle. Because of the more north “end game”, the GFS was consistently too slow. The European model had big problems early on but did better starting about 36-48 hours before landfall catching on to the SW Fl. coast though didn’t really indicate the move east across Fl. until 18-14 hours before hitting Ft. Meyers. The Euro was generally better on the timing of landfall since it ended up more east (though even as late as 36 before, the Euro had a solution pretty similar to the GFS taking Ian to the Big Bend, plus or minus a few miles. The UKMET model was interesting in that it was the most consistent & insistent on the more east solution with a possible move to the Fl. east coast but the model varied a fair amount on timing & was consistently way too weak often showing a landfall of a 1000mb+ storm. Reality was closer to 940mb. Yet the more east outcome - obviously - was accurate. Odd to the say the least.

The map below was the Euro - yellow ‘X’ vs. the GFS - pink ‘X’ - on Sept. 22nd (6 days before landfall) - what a difference! They were both valid for the forecast just 5 days later on Sept. 27th. The 2nd & 3rd forecasts were issued a day later (Sept. 23). The Euro had the location down pretty well but was 24-36 hours too fast (& did still have a couple of operational runs that were much farther north after the 23rd).... the GFS was better on timing (speed) on the 23rd but too far northwest.

European forecast on Sept. 23 showing a landfall on the SW Fl. coast on the 27th:

The GFS model from the 23rd shows Ian southwest of Tampa on the 28th:

Courtesy the University of Albany... the graph below shows the model accuracy (in location) through Sat. night, Sept. 24th. The GFS is “winning” hands down. But look at the final outcome in the 2nd graph. The GFS clearly stumbled while the European model made up for lost time after the 25th though still struggled at times. The CTCX model - an experimental U.S. Navy model that uses the GFS for analysis - was pretty decent though it also struggled during Ian’s infancy.

Also of interest was W. Pacific typhoon activity. A tropical storm & a typhoon turned sharply northeast. The teleconnection of troughs/ridges over the W. Pacific helping to cause those sharp turns was duplicated over the W. Atlantic helping to give us a clue that sharper northeast away from Cuba was probably the better forecast. Typhoon “Roke” track over the NW Pacific shows the turn north then northeast Sept. 27 - Oct. 1:

Personally - I felt the Fl. Big Bend to south of Tampa were a plausible scenario. Obviously, the more south part of that forecast was better. The move east all the way across Fl. was more east than I anticipated even with the typhoon teleconnection over the W. Pacific.

My concern was the potential for rainfall of more than a foot - especially south of I-10. The area of heaviest rainfall did materialize but the extreme rainfall was more to the south along the I-4 corridor north to almost Highway 16 in St. Johns & Clay Co. closer to the center of Ian. There was a sharp cutoff in the rain to the west with virtually none - or at least less than a half inch - west of Highway 301 well inland over N. Central Fl. as well as inland SE Ga.

A stationary front was key - & a clue - stretched out across Central Fl. Dropping southward as a cold front Tue., Sept. 27th, Ian essentially traveled along the front the next day on the 28th through the 29th before reaching the far W. Atlantic & turning sharply northward. The map below is from Tue. night (Sept. 27):

The 500 mb (~30,000 feet) forecast for Wed., 09/28 (below) shows the alley way for Ian. The Bermuda High was strong but centered well northeast of Bermuda. An upper level trough was moving through the Northeast U.S. which allowed Ian to find the weakest resistance from SW Fl. to the east central coast. The sharp turn north after moving across Fl. was caused by the upper level trough lifting out to the northeast & Ian being pulled northward by another upper level trough moving into the Central U.S.

Sea surface temps. were plenty warm - well into the 80s - across the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico. But even more important was the availability of deep oceanic heat content right where Ian tracked upon approach to Cuba. The orange/red below shows the very warm, deep water which helped to “feed” Ian:

Due to the hurricane’s size & nearly 2 days as a major hurricane, impacts in the area south of Tampa were even more severe than damage than Cat. 4 Charley caused in the same general area in 2004. Imagery below from CIMMS integrated microwave imagery shows Ian’s intensification early Thu. after an eyewall replacement cycle Wed. night:

Rainfall was greater than a foot from Sarasota to Hardee in SW Fl.:

A view of the rainfall over Central & E. Central Fl. shows the extreme rainfall just north of Ian’s center & north of the stationary front from Kissimmee to Orlando to Deltona to New Smyrna Beach & Daytona Beach. The heaviest rain measured was at Ponce Inlet - just over 20″! This rainfall has caused flooding along the St. Johns River & its tributaries for more than a week following the storm.

An interesting graphic below from the N.W.S. showing Ian to be the 3rd most prolific tropical rainfall system since 2005:

Comparisons to hurricane Charley in 2004 are inevitable given both Charley & Ian were high end Cat. 4′s & hit in roughly the same area (Charley a bit more north). But two important & big differences: (1) Charley was a fraction of the size of Ian as the eye was roughly a quarter of the size of Ian’s eye (though Charley’s eye was very intense & still strengthening at landfall). The width of damaging winds was much greater with Ian.... (2) Ian was a major hurricane for nearly 36 hours before the Fl. landfall while Charley was a major hurricane for only hours before landfall. The result was that Ian’s storm surge was far greater - 12+ feet - than Charley’s 6-7 foot surge.

Ian’s landfall was slightly southeast of Charley & was just a little southeast of Charley’s track until Ian’s north then northwest turn once east of F. Irma in 2017 came in more from the southeast before turning northward then continued on a N/NW track up the western spine of Fl.

Suomi NPP satellite shows the loss of much of the power grid in & around Ft. Myers & Cape Coral following Ian:

The Dry Tortugas in the eye of Ian Tue. night, Sept. 27th a little after 11pm EDT:

Dry Tortugas & the Fort Jefferson after & before Ian below:

Jacksonville N.W.S. Ian report - posted online * here *:

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT...HURRICANE IAN

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

646 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2022

NOTE: THE DATA SHOWN HERE ARE PRELIMINARY....AND SUBJECT TO UPDATES AND CORRECTIONS AS APPROPRIATE. THIS REPORT INCLUDES EVENTS OCCURRING WHEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WERE IN EFFECT...OR WHEN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH IAN OR ITS REMNANTS WAS AFFECTING THE AREA.

COUNTIES INCLUDED...ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CAMDEN... COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GLYNN...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM... ST JOHNS...UNION

A. LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE/MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AND PEAK GUSTS

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METAR OBSERVATIONS...

NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 10 METERS AND WIND AVERAGING IS 2 MINUTES

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LOCATION ID MIN DATE/ MAX DATE/ PEAK DATE/

LAT LON PRES TIME SUST TIME GUST TIME

DEG DECIMAL (MB) (UTC) (KT) (UTC) (KT) (UTC)

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KNRB-MAYPORT NAVAL STATION FL

30.39 -81.42 1004.9 30/0752 020/040 29/1740 020/056 29/1627

KCRG-CRAIG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT FL

30.33 -81.52 1005.4 30/0753 040/027 29/1033 040/052 29/1648

KGNV-GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT FL

29.68 -82.27 1006.9 29/0853 360/022 29/1353 010/051 29/1509

KFIN-BUNNELL FL

29.47 -81.20 040/030 29/1015 050/049 29/0955

KNIP-JACKSONVILLE NAS FL

30.24 -81.68 1005.8 30/0753 360/035 29/2153 020/048 29/1534

KSSI-ST. SIMONS/MALCOLM MCKINNON AIRPORT GA

31.15 -81.38 1004.9 30/0953 020/028 29/1602 030/047 29/1526

KJAX-JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FL

30.49 -81.69 1005.9 30/0756 020/027 29/1456 020/046 29/1510 I

KFHB-FERNANDINA BEACH FL

30.61 -81.45 030/031 29/1615 030/043 29/1615

KVQQ-CECIL FIELD AIRPORT FL

30.22 -81.88 020/027 29/1250 350/040 29/2050

K42J-KEYSTONE HEIGHTS FL

29.85 -82.05 030/022 29/0855 030/034 29/0915

K28J-PALATKA FL

29.66 -81.69 350/020 29/2115 350/034 29/2115

KLCQ-LAKE CITY FL

30.18 -82.58 030/021 29/1555 020/032 29/1535

KAYS-WAYCROSS GA

31.25 -82.40 030/021 29/1935 030/032 29/2035

KBQK-BRUNSWICK/GLYNCO AIPORT GA

31.15 -81.47 020/023 29/1615 360/032 30/0015

KDQH-DOUGLAS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT GA

31.48 -82.86 030/025 29/2135 030/031 29/1835

KAMG-BACON COUNTY AIRPORT GA

31.54 -82.50 1008.9 30/0953 360/016 29/1853 010/031 30/0220

KJES-JESUP GA

31.55 -81.88 020/019 29/1955 030/028 29/2235

KAZE-HAZLEHURST AIRPORT GA

31.88 -82.65 010/016 30/1035 030/024 30/0955

REMARKS:

NON-METAR OBSERVATIONS...

NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN

MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN

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LOCATION ID MIN DATE/ MAX DATE/ PEAK DATE/

LAT LON PRES TIME SUST TIME GUST TIME

DEG DECIMAL (MB) (UTC) (KT) (UTC) (KT) (UTC)

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XHUP-HUGUENOT PARK

30.42 -81.41 1005 29/1948 999/050 29/1543 999/063 29/1833

XJAK-BUCK ISLAND

30.40 -81.47 1003 29/1945 999/046 29/1640 999/070 29/1600

XJEK-JEKYLL ISLAND GA

31.06 -81.40 9999 999/030 30/1142 999/045 30/1027

XHSE-WEATHERFLOW CRESCENT BEACH SUMMERHOUSE

29.72 -81.23 1002 29/1910 999/040 29/2240 999/056 29/2110

REMARKS: SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS AT WEATHERFLOW SITES ARE

UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.

B. MARINE OBSERVATIONS...

NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN

MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN

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LOCATION ID MIN DATE/ MAX DATE/ PEAK DATE/

LAT LON PRES TIME SUST TIME GUST TIME

DEG DECIMAL (MB) (UTC) (KT) (UTC) (KT) (UTC)

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MYPF1-NOS STATION MAYPORT FL

30.40 -81.43 1005.4 30/0742 220/041 29/1612 210/053 29/1630

06/06

FRDF1-NOS STATION FERNANDINA BEACH FL

30.67 -81.47 1005.7 30/0736 360/027 29/1842 360/041 29/1330

09/06

SAUF1-CMAN STATION SAINT AUGUSTINE FL

29.86 -81.26 1002.1 29/1900 360/049 29/2100 360/060 29/2051

08/10

GTXF1-NERR STATION GUANA TOLOMAO MATANZAS FL

29.66 -81.22 1002 29/1930 010/030 29/1830

BKBF1-I295 BUCKMAN BRIDGE

30.19 -81.69 1005.7 30/0754 020/027 29/1512 020/039 29/1424

REMARKS: THE PEAK WAVE HEIGHT MEASURED BY BUOY 41112 WAS 9.2 METERS

OR 30.2 FEET ON 9/30 AROUND 05 UTC. BUOY 41117 MEASURED A PEAK WAVE

HEIGHT OF AROUND 11 METERS OR 36.1 FEET ON 9/30 AROUND 02 UTC. DATA

PROVIDED BY SCRIPPS INSTITUTION OF OCEANOGRAPHY.

C. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1200 UTC SEP 28 UNTIL 1200 UTC SEP 30

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CITY/TOWN COUNTY ID RAINFALL

LAT LON (IN)

DEG DECIMAL

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19 S BUNNELL FLAGLER FSWNFRR 13.81

29.20 -81.23

5 E BAKERSVILLE ST. JOHNS FL-SJ-EOC 11.09

29.90 -81.41

4 NNE BUNNELL-COCORAHS S FLAGLER FL-FL-47 10.66

29.52 -81.24

ST. AUGUSTINE ST. JOHNS FSWNCSA 9.60

29.89 -81.31

1 W ST. AUGUSTINE SHORES ST. JOHNS SAS21SSW 9.26

29.81 -81.33

1 E PALM COAST FLAGLER FSWNHDB 9.05

29.57 -81.19

1 ENE BUNNELL FLAGLER FSWNFCE 8.61

29.47 -81.24

1 NW MARINELAND ST. JOHNS GTXF1 7.79

29.67 -81.22

3 S PALM COAST-CWOP SITE FLAGLER GW2024 7.06

29.53 -81.21

1 NE DUNNS CREEK NEAR SA PUTNAM FL-PT-24 5.50

29.59 -81.61

1 SSE PALATKA-CWOP SITE ST. JOHNS AR990 3.87

29.64 -81.65

6 NW SALT SPRINGS MARION LGRF1 3.68

29.40 -81.81

5 SSW DURBIN ST. JOHNS FL-SJ-62SE 3.44

30.01 -81.48

3 NE DURBIN ST. JOHNS FL-SJ-PV-59S 3.38

30.12 -81.43

1 NNE BELLEVIEW MARION BLLBS 2.27

29.07 -82.05

2 SE SUMMERFIELD-CWOP SI MARION FW8228 2.16

28.98 -82.01

SAN PABLO DUVAL 2748D 1.96

30.29 -81.44

2 W CITRA MARION 6734D 1.88

29.41 -82.14

1 WSW MAYPORT DUVAL KNRB 1.82

30.38 -81.42

4 SW OCALA AIRPORT MARION AV639 1.63

29.13 -82.28

2 NNE JACKSONVILLE NAVAL ST. JOHNS KNIP 1.54

30.22 -81.67

D. INLAND FLOODING...

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E. MAXIMUM OBSERVED WATER LEVEL (WL)...

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ID CITY/TOWN COUNTY STATE WL DATUM DATE/ SOURCE

OR LOCATION (FT) TIME

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MYPF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 2.49 MHHW 29/1624 NOS

30.3917 -81.4300

CSAG1 SEA CAMP DOCK O CAMDEN GA 2.81 MHHW 29/1645 USGS

30.7644 -81.4714

FRDF1 FERNANDINA BEAC NASSAU FL 3.35 MHHW 29/1654 NOS

30.6717 -81.4650

PELF1 PELLICER CREEK ST JOHNS FL 4.29 MHHW 29/1845 USGS

29.6692 -81.2597

NATF1 NASSAU RIVER NE DUVAL FL 3.02 MHHW 29/1845 USGS

30.5506 -81.5900

SRWG1 SATILLA RIVER A CAMDEN GA 1.24 MHHW 29/1845 USGS

30.9744 -81.7258

DNSF1 DUNNS CREEK NEA PUTNAM FL 3.73 MHHW 30/0215 USGS

29.5775 -81.6264

PALF1 ST JOHNS RIVER PUTNAM FL 3.36 MHHW 30/0230 USGS

29.5961 -81.6833

SPUF1 DEEP CREEK AT S ST JOHNS FL 5.17 MHHW 30/0600 USGS

29.7294 -81.4869

DMSF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 2.68 MHHW 30/1742 NOS

30.3867 -81.5583

DPBF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 2.57 MHHW 30/1800 USGS

30.3858 -81.5583

SJLF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 2.81 MHHW 30/1845 USGS

30.3222 -81.6656

MSBF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 2.71 MHHW 30/1836 NOS

30.3200 -81.6583

SRPF1 ST JOHNS RIVER ST JOHNS FL 3.61 MHHW 29/2330 USGS

29.8000 -81.5500

GCEF1 ST JOHNS RIVER ST JOHNS FL 3.27 MHHW 30/0915 USGS

30.0058 -81.6150

BKBF1 ST JOHNS RIVER, DUVAL FL 3.06 MHHW 30/1924 NOS

30.1924 -81.6889

BRNG1 ST SIMONS ISLAN GLYNN GA 2.73 MHHW 29/1615 USGS

31.1333 -81.3967

JULF1 JULINGTON CREEK DUVAL FL 2.64 MHHW 30/1030 USGS

30.1433 -81.5558

TRJF1 TROUT RIVER AT DUVAL FL 2.61 MHHW 30/1830 USGS

30.4172 -81.6967

CCJF1 CLAPBOARD CREEK DUVAL FL 2.40 MHHW 30/1850 USGS

30.4483 -81.5183

JAKF1 CEDAR RIVER AT DUVAL FL 2.86 MHHW 30/1900 USGS

30.2819 -81.7406

DCDF1 DUNN CREEK AT D DUVAL FL 2.12 MHHW 30/1915 USGS

30.4550 -81.5969

BRJF1 BROWARD RIVER B DUVAL FL 2.40 MHHW 30/1945 USGS

30.4433 -81.6683

PCUF1 POTTSBURG CREEK DUVAL FL 2.71 MHHW 30/1900 USGS

30.2869 -81.5700

REMARKS:

F. TORNADOES...

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(DIST)CITY/TOWN COUNTY DATE/ EF SCALE

LAT LON (DEG DECIMAL) TIME(UTC) (IF KNOWN)

DESCRIPTION

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G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...

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COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS

DESCRIPTION

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GILCHRIST 0 0 0

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

NASSAU 0 0 0

THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY EXPERIENCED STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, MAINLY IN GUSTS. AT 12:54 PM ON THURSDAY 9/29, THE NOS TIDE GAGE AT FERNANDINA BEACH REACH A PEAK SURGE HEIGHT OF 3.35 FT MHHW DATUM. MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS AT 2.5 FT MHHW AND MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.5 FT MHHW. STORM SURGE HEIGHT AT THIS LOCATION WAS JUST BELOW IRMA LEVELS IN 2017, WHICH WAS 3.58 FT MHHW. AT 12:55 PM ON THURSDAY 9/29, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED

STORM SURGE FLOODING NEAR HURRICANE IRMA LEVELS IN FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 2 PM ON THURSDAY 9/29, THE FERNANDINA BEACH FIRE CHIEF REPORTED MINOR DAMAGE TO THE FERNANDINA BEACH HARBOR MARINA. THE RAMP WAS IN THE WATER AND BOBBING ALONGSIDE FLOATING DOCKS. FERNANDINA BEACH HIGH SCHOOL WAS ALSO DAMAGED. PEAK WINDS INCLUDED AT WIND GUST OF 49 MPH AT THE FERNANDINA BEACH AIRPORT AT 12:15 PM AND 12:35 PM ON 9/29. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 36 MPH WERE RECORDED AT BOTH 11:55 AM AND THEN 12:15 PM, RESPECTIVELY. A PRIVATE WEATHER STATION

IN YULEE MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 51 MPH AT 11:50 AM ON 9/29. THE PEAK SUSTAINED WIND SPEED MEASURED AT THIS LOCATION WAS 36 MPH AT 2:14 PM.

COLUMBIA 0 0 0

A TREE FELL ON A HOME AND THE RESIDENT WAS DISPLACED BUT NOT INJURED. THIS EVENT HAPPENED ON 9/28 ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NOR’EASTER WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF IAN RAINBANDS.

PUTNAM 0 0 0

MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES OCCURRED DUE TO TRAPPED TIDES, STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND STORM SURGE. MINOR RIVER FLOODING BEGAN ON WEDNESDAY 9/28 AND AS STRONG ENE WINDS INCREASED AROUND IAN INTO THURSDAY, THE RIVER ROSE INTO MODERATE FLOOD STATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION AT DUNNS CREEK OCCURRED THURSDAY NIGHT AT 10:15 PM WITH TOTAL WATER INUNDATION OF 3.73 FT MHHW DATUM. THIS WAS A NEW RECORD FOR THIS LOCATION AND SURPASSED THE OLD RECORD OF 3.67 FT PREVIOUSLY ON 10/7/2016 WITH HURRICANE MATTHEW. MAJOR FLOODING AT THIS LOCATION BEGINS AT 3 FT MHHW. THE PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION AT BUFFALO BLUFF ALSO OCCURRED THURSDAY EVENING AT 11 PM WITH A PEAK SURGE OF 3.36 FT AGL MHHW DATUM. THIS WAS ALSO A NEW RECORD FOR THAT LOCATION AND SURPASSED THE OLD RECORD STAGE OF 3.2 FT MHHW PREVIOUSLY SET ON 10/7/2016 WITH HURRICANE MATTHEW. MAJOR FLOODING FOR THIS LOCATION BEGINS ABOVE 3 FT MHHW. AT 7 PM ON THURSDAY 9/29, SEVERAL HOMES FLOODED IN THE RIVER PARK WEST SUBDIVISION IN FRUITLAND, NEAR LAKE GEORGE. WIDESPREAD, PERSISTENT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUED THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND (10/1 AND 10/2) WITH FLOODING IN THE MAJOR TO MODERATE CATEGORIES AND INUNDATION OF DOZENS OF HOMES IN WELAKA AND SATSUMA.

CLAY 0 0 0

ST. JOHNS RIVER FLOODING AND WIND DAMAGE FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPACTED CLAY COUNTY. AT 5:06 PM ON THURSDAY 9/29, THE PUBLIC REPORTED RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BETWEEN GREEN COVE SPRINGS AND RACY POINT. A VIDEO SHOWCASED THE RIVER FLOODING NEARING RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AND WAS COMPARED TO RIVER FLOODING AT THAT LOCATION SIMILAR TO HURRICANE MATTHEW IN 2016. ON FRIDAY 9/30, THE BUCKMAN BRIDGE TIDE GAGE ON THE ST. JOHNS RIVER PEAK AT 3.04 FT MHHW DATUM. MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS ABOVE 3 FT MHHW AT THIS LOCATION.

ALACHUA 0 0 0

WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WERE REPORTED IN ALACHUA COUNTY. AT 5:44 AM ON THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 29, THE GNV ASOS AT THE GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH. AT 9:53 AM, THE GNV ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH. AT 11:09 AM ON 9/29, THE GNV ASOS MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 59 MPH.

CAMDEN 0 0 0

THE COUNTY EXPERIENCED STORM SURGE INUNDATION AT THE COAST AND INTO THE ST. MARY’S RIVER. AT 1:48 PM ON 9/29, THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED STORM SURGE INUNDATION INTO THE SUBMARINE MUSEUM IN ST. MARY’S. PEAK WINDS RANGED FROM GUSTS OF 35 MPH AT THE STAFFORD RAWS STATION ON CUMBERLAND ISLAND BEFORE THE SENSOR FAILED TO 47 MPH ON 9/29 AT A GDOT SENSOR NEAR INTERSTATE 95 AND THE ST. MARY’S RIVER.

FLAGLER 0 0 0

THE COUNTY EXPERIENCED STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE, FLOODING RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE INUNDATION FROM HURRICANE IAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WERE RECORDED ON WEDNESDAY EVENING 9/28 AT 9:31 PM WHEN THEN MESONET STATION AT MARINELAND MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH. AT 11:40 PM ON 9/28, THE SAME STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH. AT 12:50 AM ON THURSDAY 9/29, THE STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH AND THEN AT 4:30 AM THE STATION MEASURED A GUST TO 68 MPH. AT 5:35 AM ON 9/29, A MESONET STATION ABOUT 1 MILE ESE OF FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 59 MPH. AT 6:40 AM, THE MARINELAND MESONET MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 66 MPH WITH A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH. AT 7:40 AM ON 9/29, A MESONET STATION 2 MILES EAST OF PALM COAST MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 57 MPH. AT 8:15 AM, A MESONET STATION 1 MILES ESE OF FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH. LATER THAT AFTERNOON, THE MARINELAND MESONET STATION REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 68 MPH. THE TIDE GAGE AT PELLICER CREEK ROSE INTO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE (ABOVE 1.8 FT MHHW DATUM) DURING HIGH TIDE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION AT THIS STATION WAS 4.29 FT MHHW WHICH OCCURRED AT 2:45 PM ON 9/29. MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT THIS LOCATION AT 3.3 FT MHHW. THE STAGE MEASURED WITH IAN WAS JUST BELOW THE RECORD FOR THIS STATION WHICH WAS 4.34 FT MHHW SET IN 2017 BY HURRICANE IRMA. BY 4:30 PM, THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED STORM SURGE INUNDATION AT MARINELAND WHERE SURGE FLOODING WHITNEY LAB BUILDINGS. THE FLAGLER BEACH PIER WAS SEVERELY DAMAGED BY STORM SURGE. THE GAGE AT HAW CREEK ABOVE RUSSELL LANDING ROSE ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE (6 FT) AROUND 10:30 AM ON THURSDAY 9/29. MOST OF THIS RISE WAS DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ON FRIDAY MORNING 9/30 AROUND 9:15 AM, THE GAGE ROSE ABOVE 8.0 FT WHICH IS ABOVE RECORD FOR THIS LOCATION. THE RECORD OF 8.0 FT WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2017 WITH HURRICANE IRMA. THE HAW CREEK GAGE CONTINUED TO RISE TO A NEW RECORD LEVEL OF 8.67 FT THROUGH SUNDAY 10/2 AS DRAINAGE FROM RECORD RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL FL DRAINED NORTHWARD. ON FRIDAY 9/30 AT 10:50 AM, AND NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED EXTENSIVE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ON SOUTH FLAGLER AVENUE AND SOUTH 23RD STREET IN FLAGLER BEACH. THE ROADWAY WAS IMPASSABLE. THIS FLOODING WAS TOTAL WATER FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE, HIGH TIDES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT 11:45 AM, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED ABOUT 2 FEET OF FLOOD WATER FROM DEAD LAKE INTO THE BULL CREEK FISH CAMP. AT 5:43 PM, THE FLAGLER BEACH FIRE RESCUE REPORTED ONE RESCUE ABOUT 1 MILE SSE OF FLAGLER BEACH WHERE A HOME WAS FLOODING ALONG SOUTH FLAGLER AVENUE DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING IN THE WAKE OF IAN. THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING NEAR SOUTH 23RD STREET IN FLAGLER BEACH. ON 10/1, THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TIDAL FLOODING AT 1730 ALONG SOUTH FLAGLER AVE AT SOUTH 23RD STREET, BUT A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS TIDE. WATER FLOODED THE BULL CREEK RESTAURANT AT THE END OF CR 2006 AT ST. JOHNS PARK. THERE WAS ABOUT 2 FEET OF WATER IN THE BUILDING THAT FLOODED FROM DEAD LAKE / HAW CREEK. RAINFALL FLOODING CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. AT 8:03 AM ON 9/29, AN AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED FLOODING ON SR-100 WEST OF THE STATE ROAD 100 OVERPASS. THERE WAS ABOUT 6-12 INCHES OF WATER COVERING THE ROAD. AT 8:05 AM, THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED STREET FLOODING ALONG BURROUGHS DRIVE AND BUFFALO GROVE PLACE NEAR BELLE TERRE PARKWAY. STREETS WERE IMPASSABLE IN THE AREA DUE TO FLOOD WATER. BY 12:13 PM, A PUBLIC REPORTED INDICATED WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH OF PALM COAST. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SURGE COMBINED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD TOTAL WATER FLOODING ACROSS THE COUNTY AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: STATE ROAD 100 BRIDGE EASTBOUND WAS CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE; FLOODING OF MARINELAND AT THE COUNTY BORDER DUE TO A DUNE BREACH; MOODY BOAT LAUNCH IN FLAGLER BEACH; SURFSIDE ESTATES IN BEVERLY BEACH; MALACOMPRA CANAL; BINGS LANDING; SEA TRAIL NEAR SEA BREEZE IN PALM COAST; AND STATE ROAD 100 FROM THE FLAGLER GOVERNMENT CENTER TO THE POST OFFICE IN BUNNELL. SIGNIFICANT DUNE EROSION OCCURRED AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: JUNGLE HUT ROAD BEACH ACCESS; 16TH ROAD OLD SALT PARK; MALACOMPRA ROAD BEACH ACCESS; STATE ROAD A1A AT 21ST STREET SOUTH; STATE ROAD A1A AT 26TH STREET SOUTH; THE BEACH ACCESS RAMP AT STATE ROAD 100 AND STATE ROAD A1A; DUNE OVER-WASH AT WASHINGTON OAKS STATE GARDENS; AND DUNE OVER-WASH ON STATE ROAD A1A FROM SOUTH 16TH TO SOUTH 10TH IN FLAGLER BEACH. THIS WILL COME WITH COASTAL, INTRACOASTAL, CRESCENT LAKE AND DEAD LAKE AREA FLOODING FOR A FEW MORE TIDE CYCLES THAT MAY IMPACT HOMES. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 9/28 AND 9/30 RANGED FROM A MAXIMUM OF 10.50 INCHES AT THE FLAGLER COUNTY AIRPORT TO 6.0 INCHES AT THE PALM COAST LIBRARY. MOST MEASURED RAINFALL RANGED BETWEEN 8 AND 11 INCHES.

BRANTLEY 0 0 0

BRANTLEY COUNTY HAD REPORTS OF 4 TREES DOWN, 1 BRUSH FIRE, 1 WOODS FIRE DUE TO TREES FALLING ON POWER LINES, AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WHICH WERE RESTORED WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE LOSS.

DUVAL 0 0 0

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND STORM SURGE IMPACTED DUVAL COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY 9/28 AT 1:43 PM, A MESONET STATION AT HUGUENOT PARK MEASURED A SUSTAINED SPEED OF 41 MPH WITH A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH. BY 5:13 PM, THE SAME STATION MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 61 MPH. AT 7:15 PM, LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A LARGE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A POWER LINE AT THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH GOLF COURSE. AT 7:41 PM, THE MAYPORT AWOS STATION MEASURED SUSTAINED NE WINDS OF 41 MPH WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH. BY 7:58 PM, THE HUGUENOT PARK MESONET SITE MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH. BY 10:33 PM, THE SAME STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH FROM THE NE. AT 10:40 PM, A MESONET STATION ABOUT 1 MILE ENE OF FORT CAROLINE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH FROM THE NE. ON THURSDAY 9/29, THE HUGUENOT PARK MESONET SITE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 65 MPH FROM THE NNE AT 1:08 AM. AT 4:45 AM, THE MESONET STATION NEAR FORT CAROLINE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 65 MPH FROM THE NNE. AT 5:22 AM, THE MAYPORT AWOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH FROM THE NE. AT 5:30 AM, A MESONET STATION 1 MILE NNE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 58 MPH FROM THE N. AT 5:35 AM, LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT THAT AT RETAIL SIGN WAS BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BAYMEADOWS ROAD AND OLD KINGS ROAD SOUTH NEAR MANDARIN. AROUND THE TIME OF THE REPORTED DAMAGE, THE NAVAL AIR STATION JACKSONVILLE AWOS STATION KNIP ON THE ST. JOHNS RIVER MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH AT 5:47 AM. AT 7:10 AM, THE MESONET STATION 1 MILE ENE OF FORT CAROLINE MEASURED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 41 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH. AT 7:50 AM, A MESONET SITE 1 MILE NNE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 50 MPH WITH A GUST TO 53 MPH. AT 8:53 AM, THE MESONET SITE 1 MILE ENE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH MEASURED A SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH A GUST TO 65 MPH. AT 8:28 AM, THE MESONET SITE A HUGUENOT PARK MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 68 MPH. AT 8:30 AM, A MESONET STATION 1 MILE NNE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH HAD A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH. AT 8:41 AM, THE MAYPORT AWOS HAD A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH. AT 9:20 AM, THE MESONET SITE ABOUT 1 MILE NNE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH HAD A GUST TO 62 MPH. AT 9:55 AM, THE SAME STATION MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 67 MPH. AT 11:43 AM, THE HUGUENOT PARK MESONET STATION MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 70 MPH. AT 12:13 PM, THE SAME STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 72 MPH. AT 12:40 PM, THE JACKSONVILLE FIRE RESCUE DEPARTMENT STATION 40 ABOUT 2 MILES WNW OF MAYPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH. AT 12:48 MPH, THE CRAIG AIRPORT ASOS KCRG MEASURED A WIND OF 60 MPH. AT 1:10 PM, A MESONET STATION 1 MILE NNE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH. AT 1:46 PM, DOWNED TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON NAVAL AIR STATION JACKSONVILLE PROPERTY DUE TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SOME TREES FELL ONTO RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES AND TWO FAMILIES WERE DISPLACED. AT 2:52 PM, THE AWOS AT MAYPORT MEASURED WIND GUST OF 62 MPH. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OCCURRED ACROSS THE COUNTY. THERE WAS ABOUT 3 TO 4 FEET OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION ALONG THE DUVAL COUNTY ATLANTIC COAST WITH 2 TO 3 FEET OF INUNDATION ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. THE PEAK SURGE AT MAYPORT WAS 2.49 FT MHHW DATUM AROUND 12:24 PM ON THURSDAY, 9/29. MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS AT 2.3 FT MHHW AND MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.3 FT MHHW AT THIS LOCATION. STORM SURGE INUNDATION WAS REPORTED ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY NEAR HAMMOCKS OF OAK LANDING NEIGHBORHOOD AROUND 2:56 PM ON THURSDAY 9/29. THE WATER LEVEL WAS COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IRMA STORM SURGE AT THE TIME, POSSIBLY A FEW INCHES HIGHER. AT 3:18 AM ON FRIDAY 9/30, THE ST. JOHNS RIVER GAUGE AT THE MAIN STREET BRIDGE IN DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE MEASURED A PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION OF 2.48 FT MHHW DATUM. MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS AT 2 FT MHHW AT THIS LOCATION. AT 4 AM, THE CEDAR RIVER TIDE GAUGE PEAKED AT 2.64 FT MHHW DATUM. MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS AT 2 FT MHHW AT THIS LOCATION. AT 4 AM, THE POTTSBURG CREEK TIDE GAUGE AT BEACH BLVD (U.S. HIGHWAY 90) PEAKED AT 2.50 FT MHHW DATUM. MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING BEGINS AT 2.2 FT MHHW AT THIS LOCATION. AT 2:26 PM, THE MAIN STREET TIDE GAUGE MEASURED IT’S PEAK STORM SURGE VALUE WITH IAN OF 2.71 FT MHHW. AT 4:30 PM, TIDAL FLOODING FLOODED SOME BUSINESSES IN SAN MARCO ALONG LASALLE STREET AND SAN MARCO BLVD WAS CLOSED DUE TO THE FLOODING. AT 5 PM, THERE WAS MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN RIVERSIDE NEAR MEMORIAL PARK. IN ATLANTIC BEACH, AT LEAST ONE BEACH WALKER AT 6TH STREET WAS LOST.

ST JOHNS 0 0 0

ST. JOHNS COUNTY EXPERIENCED STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE, STORM SURGE INUNDATION AND FRESHWATER RAINFALL FLOODING AS A RESULT OF HURRICANE IAN. THE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED LESS THAN 40 RESCUES WERE MADE DURING THE STORM. EMERGENCY RESOURCES RESPONDED TO OVER 300 RESCUE CALLS RELATED TO FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN ST. AUGUSTINE, SUMMER HAVEN, HASTINGS, FLAGLER ESTATES AND MATANZAS INLET. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS STARTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT 9/28. AT 7 PM, THE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN STATION SAUF1 REPORTED NE WINDS 39 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 47 MPH. AT 10 PM, THE C-MAN REPORTED NNE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH. AT 10:20 PM, A MESONET STATION ABOUT 2 MILES SSE OF SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH RECORDED A WIND GUST FROM THE NE OF 56 MPH. AT 10:55 PM, A MESONET SITE ABOUT 2 MILES NW OF ST. AUGUSTINE CALLED XLWS LEWIS MEASURED A WIND GUST FROM THE NNE OF 59 MPH. ON THURSDAY 9/29 AT 6 AM, THE SAUF1 C-MAN STATION MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH. AT 7 AM, THE C-MAN MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 57 MPH. AT 9 AM, THE C-MAN MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST TO 57 MPH. AT 9:06 AM, THE AWOS AT THE ST. AUGUSTINE AIRPORT (KSGJ) MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH. AT 9:50 AM, A MESONET STATION IN THE CITY OF ST. AUGUSTINE MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH WITH A GUST TO 49 MPH. AT 9:55 AM, A MESONET SITE XLWS LEWIS ABOUT 2 MILES NW OF ST. AUGUSTINE MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH. AT 10 AM, THE C-MAN STATION MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH. AT 2:15 PM, THE LEWIS MESONET SITE MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH. AT 3 PM, THE C-MAN STATION MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH (STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE) WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH. STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL FLOODING BEGIN IN DOWNTOWN ST. AUGUSTINE THE MORNING OF THURSDAY 9/29. AT 9:48 AM, THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLOODING OF AVENIDA MENENDEZ AND THE BRIDGE OF LIONS WAS CLOSED. AT 11:02 AM, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN ST. AUGUSTINE WITH WATER ENTERING HOMES. AT 11:10 AM, FLOODING OF KING STREET WAS REPORTED IN ST. AUGUSTINE. AT 11:53 AM, FIRE RESCUE IN ST. AUGUSTINE REPORTED STORM SURGE FLOODING WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED HURRICANE MATTHEW LEVELS IN 2016. AT 12:02 PM, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED STORM SURGE INUNDATION ABOUT 1 MILE SOUTH OF VILANO BEACH WHERE THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY BRIDGE APPROACHES WERE CUT-OFF BY STORM SURGE FLOODING. MAJOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON A1A NEAR NORTH VILANO BEACH. AT 12:05 PM, COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ALONG THE COASTLINE WERE IMPASSABLE DUE TO STORM SURGE INUNDATION. AT 12:44 PM, BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED FROM THE DAVIS SHORES AREA OF ST. AUGUSTINE ON ANASTASIA ISLAND AND SHOWED MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING INUNDATION WITH LEVELS NEAR THAT OF HURRICANE MATTHEW IN 2016. THIS FLOODING INFILTRATED HOMES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. AT 1:58 PM, A WEATHERSTEM CAMERA ON THE GROUNDS OF MARINELAND SHOWED STORM SURGE FLOOD WATER INTO THE WHITNEY LAB. AT 2:45 PM, THE PELLICER CREEK TIDE GAUGE PEAKED AT 4.29 FT MHHW DATUM. THE LEVEL WAS JUST BELOW THE RECORD VALUES OF 4.34 FT MHHW SET DURING HURRICANE MATTHEW. MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT THIS LOCATION ABOVE 3.3 FT MHHW. AT 7:30 PM, THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TIDE GAUGE AT RACY POINT PEAKED AT 3.66 FT MHHW DATUM. MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3 FEET MHHW FOR THIS LOCATION. AT 5 AM FRIDAY 9/30, THE TIDE GAUGE ALONG DEEP CREEK REACHED A STAGE OF 5.18 FT MHHW DATUM DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL. MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS ABOVE 4.2 FT MHHW. AT 5:15 AM, THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TIDE GAUGE AT THE SHANDS BRIDGE PEAKED AT 3.27 FT MHHW DATUM. MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS ABOVE 3 FT MHHW. AT 7:42 AM, THE EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED THAT AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS INDICATED THAT THE EL PENON INLET NEAR SUMMER HAVEN RE-OPENED. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO OVERWASH AND UNDETERMINED AT THIS TIME IF IT WAS A TRUE BREACH. FLOODING RAINFALL IMPACTED MUCH OF ST. JOHNS COUNTY. AT 11:13 PM ON 9/29, THE PUBLIC REPORTED 9.51 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN ELKTON.

St. Augustine First Alert Skycam Network time lapse - Thu., Sept. 29th shows heavy storm surge flooding which was just below Matthew’s peak in most of downtown St. Augustine but was a little higher that Matthew in some other areas:

Like Matthew in ‘16, Ian cut through some of the narrow beach barrier islands near the coast in far Southern St. Johns Co. reforming a new inlet behind (to the west) several homes that had only recently been naturally closed:

There are some stories of how people stepped up during Ian. Vilano Beach in St. Johns Co. has a hero that saved the neighborhood from flooding when he worked through much of the storm to build a manmade berm with some nearby fill dirt. The story by Action News Jax reporter/anchor Robert Grant:

Fort Myers damage:

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters flew Ian almost constantly from the Central & Northern Caribbean to the SE Gulf of Mexico. One of the later flights - early Wed., Sept. 28th when Ian was undergoing rapid intensification - was especially bumpy:

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