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Hurricanes
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Another strong cold front set to move into the W. Atlantic
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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Another strong cold front set to move into the W. Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Another strong cold front set to move into the W. Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Another strong cold front set to move into the W. Atlantic

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

There's some "disturbed" weather over the far Southwest Caribbean.  Proximity to land should limit much development.  A couple of tropical waves are located between the Caribbean & the west coast of Africa but shear will limit any development with little chance for the waves making it very far west.  

Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall.  Frequent cold fronts will push farther & farther south & east during the next one to two weeks thanks to a rather persistent & further south development of a series of upper level troughs.  Low pressure will occasionally develop along the fronts over the Atlantic but no indication - at this time - of any tropical development.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Tropical cyclone origins - since 1851 - favor the still warm Western Caribbean & the Central Atlantic.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

 

 

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

 

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

 

Global tropical activity:

Weakening "Halong" has turned northeast over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan & will be of no threat to land:

"Nakri" will move west toward China while weakening upon approach to the coast:

"Matmo" will be weakening while moving into India & Myanmar:

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The Latest News Headlines

  • The Lake City Police Department in Florida is asking for the public’s help in locating Kellie Woofe, 13. Kellie was last seen running west on Faith Road near the Bascom Norris intersection on Monday. Police said her grandfather reported her missing. After an argument that happened in his car, he told police Kellie got out of the car while they were in the Interface parking lot and ran off. LCPD said she was wearing a black jacket and ripped blue jeans. If you see her, you are asked to call police at 386-752-4343 or call 911. Kellie is 5 feet, 3 inches tall and weighs 130 pounds. She has red hair and blue eyes.
  • Search crews have found the body of a Montana teen who vanished on New Year’s Day, deputies said. According to USA Today, 16-year-old Selena Not Afraid was found dead near an Interstate 90 rest area Monday morning, weeks after she disappeared while traveling from Billings to Hardin after a New Year’s Eve party. Investigators do not suspect foul play, the Big Horn County Sheriff’s Office said. In an FBI notice, authorities said the girl “left a disabled vehicle and walked into a field adjacent to the rest area” about 2 p.m. Jan. 1. She was “not dressed for the weather conditions,” authorities said. Not Afraid’s disappearance sparked a multiagency search involving hundreds of people, the Billings Gazette reported. Read more here or here.
  • Officials have euthanized a mountain lion that attacked a toddler on a trail at a California park, Orange County officials said. According to CNN and the Desert Sun, the attack happened after 4 p.m. local time Monday as a family visited Whiting Ranch Wilderness Park. “The mountain lion came out of somewhere and grabbed the 3-year-old by the neck and dragged him a short distance,” Capt. Tony Bommarito of the Orange County Fire Authority told the Desert Sun. The child’s father then sprang into action, hurling a backpack at the mountain lion, Bommarito said. The animal set the boy free and went for the backpack before climbing a tree, the outlets reported. After the family fled to safety, the boy was treated at a hospital, authorities said. Orange County deputies said the boy is “OK,” the Desert Sun reported. Officials euthanized the cougar with permission from the state’s Department of Fish and Wildlife, the outlets reported. Read more here or here.
  • A man has been arrested for causing a crash that killed a local father in September 2018.  Florida Highway Patrol and Nassau County Sheriff’s Deputies arrested 32-year-old Brian Holtkamp on Friday.  Troopers posted a photo of Holtkamp as he was put into a the back of a patrol car.  He’s charged with DUI manslaughter. FHP says Holtkamp was driving north on U.S. 17 north of Bruney Road in Yulee, when he drove into the other lane and collided head-on with another vehicle.The passenger in that car, 37-year-old Justin Cribb, died. He left behind a 13-year-old son.  Cribb’s mother told Action News Jax his family misses him terribly.  The driver was seriously hurt in the crash.   According to FHP, Holtkamp tested positive for drugs, including meth. Action News Jax confirmed that he has prior arrests for charges including driving under the influence, burglary and grand theft.
  • With chilly temperatures this morning in the 30’s, inland communities are under a freeze warning until 10 am.   Action News Jax Meteorologist Corey Simma says temperatures this afternoon only climb to the upper 40's to near 50 degrees. And it will be breezy so it feels colder. Expect a widespread freeze on Wednesday morning, and a hard freeze well inland, with another day in the 50's. Then a gradual warming trend will arrive to end the week.  Friday’s high temperature will be in the low 70’s but with widely scattered afternoon showers.

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