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Hurricanes
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic Basin is full of autumn fronts
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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic Basin is full of autumn fronts

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic Basin is full of autumn fronts

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic Basin is full of autumn fronts

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

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READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"

RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

A rather strong upper level low is producing disorganized but heavy showers & storms over the Central Atlantic which may lead to the development of low pressure.  The low will be absorbed by a cold front during the next few days as the system turns north then northeast with little chance for any tropical development while staying far to the east of the U.S.

Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall.  Frequent cold fronts will push farther & farther south & east during the next one to two weeks thanks to a rather persistent & further south development of a series of upper level troughs.  Low pressure will occasionally develop along the fronts over the Atlantic but no indication - at this time - of any tropical development.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Tropical cyclone origins - since 1851 - favor the very warm Western Caribbean & the Central Atlantic.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle in 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

 

 

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

 

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

 

Global tropical activity:

"Maha" is over the Arabian Sea & will likely stay over the water & away from land while weakening over the next few days.... & typhoon "Halong" is an early recurve over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan:

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The Latest News Headlines

  • Wednesday night was to be the last night Michelle Carter will spend at Massachusetts' Bristol County House of Corrections, ending less than a year’s time at the prison. Her case drew international attention and became the subject of a popular documentary after she was convicted for urging her boyfriend to kill himself. But behind the walls of this prison, Carter’s life has been relatively routine since she arrived in February of last year. Carter was sentenced to 15 months in prison for involuntary manslaughter in 2017 for sending text messages urging her boyfriend, Conrad Roy, to kill himself. He died by suicide in 2014. “She really actually was a model inmate. She got involved in various programs: hospitality, culinary, the service aid program. She was involved in the kitchen working as kitchen help, got involved in the recovery program, so she was very busy,” said Bristol County Sheriff Tom Hodgsen. Hodgsen said Carter’s ability to stay busy means she’s getting out early. “She’s earned her good time through those programs, and she’ll be released tomorrow sometime after 9 o’clock,” Hodgsen said Wednesday. Carter, now 23 years old, will remain on probation for five years after she’s released. Often, inmates with high-profile cases can be a challenge in correctional facilities. But Hodgsen said they did not have issues with Carter. “We didn’t really have many concerns in regard to her other than making sure her mental health state was good coming in and that it maintained its health condition until she was released and that seemed to go well,” Hodgsen said. Roy’s family says they are trying not to focus on Carter but on a passing a bill called Conrad’s Law, which would make it illegal to coerce someone who you know is vulnerable into suicide. The bill calls for a punishment of up to five years in prison.
  • More disturbing details are emerging about the Pennsylvania woman who was locked in a wooden cage inside of a Vestaburg home. WPXI-TV uncovered documents that show officials knew she was in a cage for three months before rescuing her or getting her medical attention. Leona Biser, 51, is facing charges of neglect of a care-dependent person, abuse of a care-dependent person, recklessly endangering another person, unlawful restraint and false imprisonment. According to the search warrant filed by the Attorney General’s Office, Agent Anthony Brunto with Adult Protective Services visited the home on 6th Street in August 2019 and encountered the victim who was dressed “inappropriately inside a locked wooden cage' on a dirty mattress. He reportedly began working on getting her guardianship but didn’t return to the house until Nov. 1. That day, he brought a doctor with him, but they left without getting the woman medical attention even though they documented that she was not able to walk. It wasn’t until nearly a month later, on Nov. 22, that the AG’s office got involved and sent an ambulance to the home to take the victim to a hospital. Her sister, Biser, was charged on Jan. 15. The Southwest Area Agency on Aging told WPXI that they didn’t handle the case because the victim is under 60 years old.
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  • In day two of the search for evidence in Susan Mauldin’s disappearance case, the FBI revealed they have concentrated on a baseball diamond size area in the Chesser Island landfill located in Folkston, Georgia. Dozens of people from the FBI, State Attorneys office, and Clay County Sheriffs office are helping in the search efforts that began Tuesday.  Experts from the FBI lab in Quantico, Virginia and tech hazard units are assisting in the search.  The FBI said they preserved an area of the landfill early in the investigation at the request of the Clay County Sheriffs office. The FBI did not allow additional dumping in that area which is now being searched by case detectives.  The landfill is laid out in a grid pattern, trash can be traced back to a specific date, and location.  It has been the center of other local high-profile cases like Joleen Cummings, and Somer Thompson.  The search comes months after Mauldin disappeared in October. Neighbors told Action News Jax the last time they saw Mauldin she had plans to meet with Binderim.  Mauldin moved to the United States from England, neighbors said she had no children and lived alone.  This search is the first major break in the case since Corey Binderim, an unlicensed contractor, was named a person of interest in Mauldin’s disappearance back in November. He’d done work in her home, neighbors say there was a falling out over money.  Binderim was arrested on an unrelated fraud charge in Duval County.
  • One organization is counting how many homeless people are living in our area to help get funding for vital programs aimed at helping them. Wednesday morning volunteers with Changing Homelessness bundled up and scoured the beaches looking for people sleeping outside for the 2020 census survey.  Nate has lived outside for the past 10 years.  'It can be tough, thank God we're not in Detroit or Minnesota or something,' he said.  The group is counting people like Nate because its needed to get funding for programs that help the homeless.  More than 1,600 people in Northeast Florida are homeless, according to the count in 2018.  The group is giving out surveys to people living out on the streets.  They're asking questions like how long it's been since they've stayed in permanent housing and where they'll be sleeping tonight,especially with the weather being so cold.  Justin Foster volunteered by handing out surveys.  'It's important to see where the homeless population is and who exactly we need to direct the resources, is it people of color, is it queer people of color, is it veterans, stuff like that,' Foster said.  The cold is having an impact on the number of people they’re able to count too.  'We actually didn't see as many as we many as we thought there was going to be because most of them were at he cold shelters at the shelters in Neptune Beach, so it's good to know what people know where to do when it's cold,' Foster said.  Only 30 surveys in the beaches area were filled out Wednesday morning.  Foster told me it made her more aware of whose living in the streets in her community.  'We found in this area that it was definitely people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s,' she said.  Changing Homelessness says it could take several weeks until they figure out how many people are homeless in Northeast Florida because they’re still collecting data throughout the week.

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