On Air Now

Listen Now

Weather

clear-day
67°
Clear
H 69° L 56°
  • clear-day
    67°
    Current Conditions
    Clear. H 69° L 56°
  • clear-night
    60°
    Evening
    Clear. H 69° L 56°
  • clear-night
    58°
    Morning
    Clear. H 80° L 66°
Listen
Pause
Error

The latest top stories

00:00 | 00:00

Listen
Pause
Error

The latest traffic report

00:00 | 00:00

Listen
Pause
Error

The latest forecast

00:00 | 00:00

Hurricanes
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Barry forms over the Northern Gulf
Close

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Barry forms over the Northern Gulf

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Barry forms over the Northern Gulf

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Barry forms over the Northern Gulf

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH "Surviving the Storm"

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"

*** Tropical storm WARNING, storm surge WARNING & Hurricane WATCH coastal Louisiana.....

Tropical storm Barry is now "official" over the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  Movement will continue to be to the west then northwest away from Florida.  There will be no direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. so locally expect the following:

* some uptick in rainfall & heavy rain potential with bands of showers & thunderstorms rotating northward far to the east of the low pressure.

* a slight increase in swells & onshore flow through Fri. helping to create an enhanced rip current risk at area beaches.

* everyone from the Panhandle west through Mobile, & especially Biloxi, New Orleans to the Texas coast should stay up to date on the latest forecasts

The average date for the first Atlantic tropical system is July 9th, so we're about "on schedule".  The evolution of this system will be gradual - at least at first. The last two U.S. landfalling July tropical systems were tropical storm Emily in 2017 (Central Florida) and hurricane Arthur in 2014 (N. Carolina).

As for Jacksonville & all of Fl., the local area will be the broad southerly flow to the east of the center meaning an increase in tropical moisture helping to create bands of northward moving showers & t'storms, especially during the afternoon & evening hours.  Much more major impacts will be further west.  Upper level high pressure over the Western U.S. + a weaker upper level high pressure cell near Florida will allow for an alleyway of sorts along the Gulf Coast helping to induce an eventual turn northward.  The position & strength of these upper level high pressure areas will be key in the ultimate turn north of "Barry" & just how far west the system may end up.  Odds are increasing on a landfall of an intensifying tropical cyclone a little west of New Orleans.

The landfall for Barry - as either a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane - looks to be Saturday west of New Orleans. Everyone from the Fl. Panhandle west along the Gulf Coast to Texas should stay up to date on this developing storm.  Extreme rainfall - 2 feet or more - is possible for parts of Louisiana & Mississippi & major flooding is of great concern aggravated but what has been a wet spring & early summer with already high levels on the Mississippi River & its tributaries.  Significant storm surge will occur over SE Louisiana & coastal Mississsippi & - to some degree - for coastal Alabama.  Barry is battling some shear out of the north as well as some dry mid & upper level air being pulled into the circulation from the continental U.S.  But conditions overall generally favor at least slow strengthening up to landfall late Fri. night or Saturday.

Model plots:.

Tropical systems like to follow the path of least resistence.  The chart below is the upper level flow (about 30-35,000 feet) for Friday showing the Bermuda high to the east of Florida & a weaker high over the Rockies.  The strength of the high east of Florida will be key on how far west the system might track & just how sharp the northward turn will be.  

Sea surface temps. over the Gulf are plenty warm enough to support &/or help tropical development.... as highs as the upper 80s over parts of the Northern Gulf.

Rainfall forecast through the weekend is very heavy along the Gulf Coast closest to the disturbance with the potential for considerable flooding for New Orleans & much of Louisiana & Mississippi:

Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District:

0

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University produced the image below showing the Gulf is "sweet spot" for tropical development in July but - interestingly - no hurricane has had its genesis (formation) over the Gulf in July going back to 1851.  But - beware - there's a first time for everything & Barry is forecast to become a hurricane prior to landfall.

1

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Atlantic Basin:

A weak wave is over the Eastern Atlantic but there does not seem to be much support for long term development....

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

 

Read More

The Latest News Headlines

  • A California father is facing multiple charges, including murder, in the death of his toddler son, authorities said. According to the Fresno Bee, Jesse Ashton, 23, of Mariposa, surrendered to authorities Friday, less than two weeks after they issued a warrant accusing him of murder and assault resulting in the April 2018 death of 22-month-old Bradley Reynolds. Ashton was jailed on $1 million bond, the Mariposa County Sheriff’s Office said in a news release. Deputies previously arrested Ashton on suspicion of involuntary manslaughter April 19, 2018, after Bradley died at an area hospital earlier that week, the Sheriff’s Office said. Ashton, who claimed that the boy had suffered a seizure, was released on bail, authorities said. “Based on evidence available at that time, no charges were filed by the District Attorney’s Office,” the news release said. But that changed after officials completed an autopsy and pathology report and gathered more information during their investigation, the Sheriff’s Office said. Authorities reviewed the results in November and issued an arrest warrant for Ashton on Dec. 2, according to the news release. “The incontrovertible evidence shows that Jesse Ashton murdered his child,” District Attorney Walter Wall said in a statement. Read more here or here. Deputies previously arrested Ashton on suspicion of involuntary manslaughter April 19, 2018, after Bradley died at an area hospital earlier that week, the Sheriff’s Office said. Ashton, who claimed that the boy had suffered a seizure, was released on bail, authorities said. “Based on evidence available at that time, no charges were filed by the District Attorney’s Office,” the news release said. But that changed after officials completed an autopsy and pathology report and gathered more information during their investigation, the Sheriff’s Office said. Authorities reviewed the results in November and issued an arrest warrant for Ashton on Dec. 2, according to the news release. “The incontrovertible evidence shows that Jesse Ashton murdered his child,” District Attorney Walter Wall said in a statement. Read more here or here.
  • Police in Oklahoma are investigating after a fatal triple shooting Saturday afternoon in Jenks. Investigators told KOKI-TV that a man and his two sons are dead after what they believe is a case of murder-suicide. Police said the children’s mother was at work at the time. The shooting happened in the Country Woods neighborhood near West 106th Street South and South Madison Street South. Officers responded to a call around 12:50 p.m. regarding a domestic incident at the home. Police said others living in the home called 911. No one else in the home was injured.
  • Police in Jacksonville Beach are investigating after more than a dozen cars were broken into over the course of a few days. It started last weekend along 5th Street South where several of those burglaries took place.  Police reports said there were 14 burglaries that happened Saturday through Monday.  Joseph Rennie said he’s hoping this weekend they don’t see a repeat.  “All in all, this is a pretty safe neighborhood. But occasionally, you have things like this happen and come up, but it’s definitely a little bit unnerving,” Rennie said.  Police said someone was going around smashing out windows of vehicles and looking for valuables inside. Wallets, credit and debit cards were taken.  Some people had nothing taken, but were left with a broken window. It happened to 6 cars on 5th Street, 4 cars on 12th, and several others on the surrounding blocks.  Rennie, like many others who live in the area, said he’s thankful he wasn’t a victim, but was surprised it happened to so many people in the area.  “There is a sense of just making sure you’re being smart about it, not leaving stuff of value in your car, kind of anywhere. But yeah, its really unfortunate to see that that’s happened, especially around the holiday season,” Rennie said.  As always, police are urging people not to leave valuables in their cars.
  • Florida, along with 29 other states, has been accepted for membership into the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), according to Governor Ron DeSantis' office. ERIC is a multi-state partnership that uses a data-matching tool to help enhance election security and make voter rolls more accurate.  The governor's office says through ERIC, member states can share information from voter registration systems, motor vehicle databases, social security death records, and US Post Office records, to help identify voters who have moved, passed away, or changed their name.  Additionally, the governor's office says ERIC will help boost voter registration as it will provide member states better information on how to contact potentially eligible, but unregistered voters.  Governor DeSantis says he has set aside an estimated $1.3 million in his 2020-2021 recommend budget to conduct outreach to these unregistered voters with a direct mailer prior to the 2020 general election.  But the governor's office says Florida's full participation in ERIC will be contingent on the state legislature signing off on his budget. Being a member of ERIC requires annual dues of around $75,000.
  • In response to a smash-and-grab burglary at a Fernandina Beach gun store where thieves stole 57 guns in 60 seconds, The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the National Shooting Sports Foundation announced a reward of up to $5,000 for tips leading to the arrest of suspects or recovery of stolen guns. The burglary happened Sunday, Dec. 8 at TNT Firearms and Accessories off State Road 200 in Nassau County.  Security footage shows 3 suspects smash through a glass door before breaking glass display cases and ransacking the store of 57 rifles and handguns.  The ATF is offering a reward of up to $2,500, which will be matched by the NSSF for a total of up to $5,000.  The ATF and NSSF are working together in a national campaign to fund rewards in cases involving guns being stolen from federally licensed dealers.

The Latest News Videos