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Hurricanes
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Cold front dominate the Atlantic
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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Cold front dominate the Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Cold front dominate the Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Cold front dominate the Atlantic

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH "Surviving the Storm"

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"

RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

There's some persistent "disturbed" weather over the far Southwest Caribbean & adjacent Central America.  Proximity to land should limit much development.  A cluster of disorganized showers & storms are located between the Caribbean & the west coast of Africa but shear will limit any development with little chance for the system to make it very far west.  

Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall.  A strong cold front is plowing deep into & across the Atlantic with the trailing stationary front extending west across the Greater Antilles.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

 

 

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

 

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

 

Global tropical activity:

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The Latest News Headlines

  • A statewide sea-level rise task force and Office of Resiliency is one step closer to becoming a reality in Florida. Behind the push, is St. Johns County state Rep. Cyndi Stevenson.  “That’s the San Sebastian River out over there,” Michael Davis said.  Michael Davis showed Action News Jax how close the water is to his front yard in Lincolnville.  “When the hurricanes come through all that fills up with water,” Davis said.  Thankfully, his two properties on Riberia Street didn’t suffer indoor damage during the last two storms – but the water filled his yard and the street.  “It’s really scary to see that much water come in,” Davis said.  It unanimously passed a House committee on Tuesday.  Rising seas is top of mind for Davis and his neighbors.  Take Riberia Street for example, it’s one of the most vulnerable streets in St. Augustine.  Even though new drainage was installed a few years back it’s not immune to flooding. Homeowners fear the risk of flooding will devalue their properties.  “Hopefully we’ll be able to continue getting our insurance and our neighborhoods won’t lose any value,” Davis said.  The bill would also look at the economic impact facing Florida as its natural barriers erode.  Stevenson called it a “very important and well-constructed bill.”  An identical bill is also making its way through the Senate.  Davis said he’s glad lawmakers are paying attention but until a plan takes shape, all he can do now is prepare.  “I’ve been here all my life, I’m a life resident and I’m not going anywhere,” Davis said.
  • In day two of the search for evidence in Susan Mauldin’s disappearance case, the FBI revealed they have concentrated on a baseball diamond size area in the Chesser Island landfill located in Folkston, Georgia. Dozens of people from the FBI, State Attorneys office, and Clay County Sheriffs office are helping in the search efforts that began Tuesday.  Experts from the FBI lab in Quantico, Virginia and tech hazard units are assisting in the search.  The FBI said they preserved an area of the landfill early in the investigation at the request of the Clay County Sheriffs office. The FBI did not allow additional dumping in that area which is now being searched by case detectives.  The landfill is laid out in a grid pattern, trash can be traced back to a specific date, and location.  It has been the center of other local high-profile cases like Joleen Cummings, and Somer Thompson.  The search comes months after Mauldin disappeared in October. Neighbors told Action News Jax the last time they saw Mauldin she had plans to meet with Binderim.  Mauldin moved to the United States from England, neighbors said she had no children and lived alone.  This search is the first major break in the case since Corey Binderim, an unlicensed contractor, was named a person of interest in Mauldin’s disappearance back in November. He’d done work in her home, neighbors say there was a falling out over money.  Binderim was arrested on an unrelated fraud charge in Duval County.
  • One organization is counting how many homeless people are living in our area to help get funding for vital programs aimed at helping them. Wednesday morning volunteers with Changing Homelessness bundled up and scoured the beaches looking for people sleeping outside for the 2020 census survey.  Nate has lived outside for the past 10 years.  'It can be tough, thank God we're not in Detroit or Minnesota or something,' he said.  The group is counting people like Nate because its needed to get funding for programs that help the homeless.  More than 1,600 people in Northeast Florida are homeless, according to the count in 2018.  The group is giving out surveys to people living out on the streets.  They're asking questions like how long it's been since they've stayed in permanent housing and where they'll be sleeping tonight,especially with the weather being so cold.  Justin Foster volunteered by handing out surveys.  'It's important to see where the homeless population is and who exactly we need to direct the resources, is it people of color, is it queer people of color, is it veterans, stuff like that,' Foster said.  The cold is having an impact on the number of people they’re able to count too.  'We actually didn't see as many as we many as we thought there was going to be because most of them were at he cold shelters at the shelters in Neptune Beach, so it's good to know what people know where to do when it's cold,' Foster said.  Only 30 surveys in the beaches area were filled out Wednesday morning.  Foster told me it made her more aware of whose living in the streets in her community.  'We found in this area that it was definitely people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s,' she said.  Changing Homelessness says it could take several weeks until they figure out how many people are homeless in Northeast Florida because they’re still collecting data throughout the week.
  • With each passing day, the family and friends of missing Pittsburgh artist Tonee Turner grow more concerned about finding her and bringing her home safe. Turner, 22, was last seen around 6 p.m. Dec. 30 in the Squirrel Hill area of the city, according to Pittsburgh police officials. WPXI reported that she was last seen at Dobra Tea, a Bohemian-style tea shop she often frequented. “She’s bubbly and caring,” Turner’s sister, Sydnee Turner, told NNPA Newswire. “She made a practice of caring for herself holistically.” The newswire reported that a firefighter found Tonee Turner’s belongings -- her wallet, cellphone and keys -- the evening she vanished about 3 miles from the tea shop on the Homestead Grays Bridge pedestrian walkway. Missing persons posters emphasize that it is completely out of character for the young woman to vanish without contacting her family or friends. Well-known in her community, Tonee Turner’s disappearance has garnered lots of local attention and some national media coverage. A GoFundMe page set up to help fund the family’s search has raised $10,535, surpassing its goal of $10,000. Police investigators spent New Year’s Day trying to piece together a timeline of Tonee Turner’s last known movements, WPXI reported. Sydnee Turner wrote on Jan. 1 that the family believed she might be traveling down Interstate 80 near Homestead and sought to confirm her safety. “We do not trust anyone she is traveling with,” Sydnee Turner wrote on Facebook. “Friends in other states, I need your help the most right now. Friends in Ohio, Utah, Nevada, anything near route I-80, please look for my sister. “Call if you have the faintest suspicion. We need to BRING TONEE HOME.” Tonee Turner, a full-time metal fabricator at Studebaker Metals in Braddock, also serves as a beloved ceramics teacher at Braddock Carnegie Library’s Bathhouse Ceramics Studio. A vigil was held earlier this month at the library for Tonee Turner. A Jan. 2 post on the library’s Facebook page pleaded for information on her whereabouts. “There are a lot of different pieces of information. And what we hope is that the leads, lead to Tonee,” the post read. “And that Tonee knows the amount of care that exists for her.” The ceramics studio has paused its open studios for a few weeks as the library works to support Turner’s co-workers through their sorrow. “This pause in open studio reflects the grief we are feeling and honoring its demands,” read a statement from Dana Bishop-Root, associate director of the library association. “Thank you for your understanding. Thank you for your continued support and care for Tonee Turner and all of the staff members of the BCS.” The young artist has also been very active in the Braddock Youth Project, first as a participant and then as an AmeriCorps team leader. “When her AmeriCorps term ended with us, she continued to work with our partners, Braddock Tiles and the Braddock Library Ceramics Studio,” a post on the project’s Facebook page read. “She later was hired on as a full-time metal fabricator at Studebaker Metals. “So many have grown accustomed to feeling her radiate love amongst different parts of the Braddock community. We are sending out our love to Tonee's family and all others who know and love her, and we are taking part in lighting white candles to lift Tonee up as detectives and her family search for answers.” Akayla Bennett told NNPA Newswire she’s known the missing woman for about a year. “She danced over to me and gave me a big hug, and I knew her soul was beautiful at that moment that I met her,” Bennett said. Bennett and Sydnee Turner described Tonee Turner as an artist, an educator and an avid dancer. Her sister said she is studying Flamenco and Kathak, a form of Indian dance. “If you’ve gone to concerts in Pittsburgh, you’ve probably seen Tonee in front, dancing her little heart away,” Bennett told the newswire. “Whether she was alone or with friends, that didn’t matter to her when it came to dancing.” Tonee Turner is black with wavy shoulder-length hair that she sometimes wears in a wrap, police officials said. She is 5 feet, 2 inches tall and weighs about 130 pounds. Anyone with information on her whereabouts is asked to dial 911 or contact the Pittsburgh Bureau of Police at 412-323-7800.
  • The attorney general for the District of Columbia announced Wednesday that his office sued President Donald Trump’s inaugural committee and others, accusing them of illegally using nonprofit funds to benefit the president’s family. In an 18-page complaint filed Wednesday in the Superior Court for the District Columbia, officials accused the 58th Presidential Inaugural Committee of overpaying for event space at the Trump International Hotel in Washington by about $1 million. “District law requires nonprofits to use their funds for their stated public purpose, not to benefit private individuals or companies,” Attorney General Karl Racine said Wednesday in a statement. “In this case, we are seeking to recover the nonprofit funds that were improperly funneled directly to the Trump family business.” The committee has maintained that its finances were independently audited, and that all money was spent in accordance with the law. In the complaint, officials said the inaugural committee paid for event space at the Trump-owned hotel despite objections from the group’s event planner, Stephanie Winston Wolkoff. Officials said she warned inaugural committee Deputy Chairman Rick Gates, Trump and his daughter, Ivanka Trump, that they were being charged at least twice the market rate. Authorities said despite her concerns, the committee never considered holding events in less-expensive venues. The committee also paid for event space at the hotel even for days on which they did not hold events and while other groups were utilizing the space, officials said. 'Another nonprofit corporation using the same space during inauguration week paid only $5,000 for the space, an amount with the Trump Hotel's pricing guidelines, while the (presidential inaugural committee) was charged amounts well in excess of those pricing guidelines,' according to the complaint. The other nonprofit corporation was identified as the Presidential Inaugural Prayer Breakfast. He said Trump's inaugural committee paid the $175,000 full-day usage fee for the event space despite the double booking. Prosecutors say the committee also used nonprofit funds to throw a private party on Jan. 17, 2017, the night off the inauguration, for Trump’s family — a $300,000 affair. The reception was for three of Trump's children — Donald, Jr., Ivanka and Eric. In a statement obtained by The Hill, Trump Hotels spokeswoman Kimberly Benza dismissed the lawsuit as “false, intentionally misleading and riddled with inaccuracies.” “The rates charged by the hotel were completely in line with what anyone else would have been charged for an unprecedented event of this enormous magnitude and were reflective of the fact that hotel had just recently opened, possessed superior facilities and was centrally located on Pennsylvania Avenue,” Benza said, according to The Hill. 'The AG’s after the fact attempt to regulate what discounts it believes the hotel should have provided as well as the timing of this complaint reeks of politics and is a clear PR stunt.” In addition to the 58th Presidential Inaugural Committee, the suit also named the Trump Organization and Trump International Hotel. Racine said his office focused on the inaugural committee and the companies that profited because investigators believe that's the best option for them to possibly recover the funds. The inaugural committee is also being investigated by New York and state authorities in New Jersey, who are looking into, among other things, whether foreigners illegally contributed to the inaugural events. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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