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A couple of fronts & upper lows are over the Central Atlantic producing clusters & bands of heavy showers & t'storms but no tropical development is evident nor is expected.
However, I continue to keep a close eye on the far Southwest Gulf of Mexico - the Bay of Campeche. A disturbance has been producing persistent thunderstorms - including some recent banding - that have emerged over the warm & early season-favored area east of Mexico & south of Texas. Strong upper level high pressure over or near Florida - a mainstay of a good part of the spring - will keep the disturbance on a W/NW track toward Mexico. It's possible a tropical depression could form prior to landfall later Mon. into Tue. The system will turn a little more northward by midweek possibly bringing some heavy rain to South Texas. Proximity to land should limit overall development, so it's flooding that will be the primary concern - especially along the coast of Mexico.
There will be NO impact on Jacksonville or any of Fl.
2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May. Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):
Seasonal forecasts from NOAA & Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University:
Graph below courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach - U.S. - landfalling U.S. hurricnes by month strongly favoring August, September & October:
And there's good news with the hurricane forecast cone - it's narrowing because of more accurate forecasts. The cone is often times confused with the size & forecast danger area of the tropical cyclone. In reality, all the cone represents is the potential forecast track error. More * here *. Map below tweeted by @BMcNoldy (Brian McNoldy):
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin.....
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Pretty interesting story out of the Palm Beach Post regarding hand drawn analysis & forecast maps vs. computer-generated * here *.