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Leslie continues to spend the week moving very slowly over the Central Atlantic making a gradual curl before turning north then northeast by the weekend. The storm's swell will affect the Florida coastline & much of the U.S. east coast through much of the week & - when combined with onshore flow - result in a high rip current risk at area beaches. Otherwise Leslie will stay far away from any land areas.
A cluster of strong convection has developed over the Caribbean. It will be interesting to see if this persists. Development over the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic appears probable next week.
The overall pattern through the first two weeks of Oct. will favor tropical development over the Atlantic Basin. The velocity potential anomaly map below indicates expansive green lines - upward motion - spreading from the E. Pacific into the Atlantic Basin, part of a MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) pulse. While tropical development could occur just about anywhere, it would appear we especially need to be vigilant of the Caribbean &/or Southwest Atlantic from approximately Oct. 6 through the 16th.
CIMMS satellite below shows the extent of dry air but also indicates it doesn't necessarily shut down the basin.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
The Atlantic Basin....
Gulf of Mexico:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air) - notice the dry air spinning into Leslie:
Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect early in the fall....
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
The E. Pacific remains active.... "Rosa" is rapidly weakening over the Baja of California but heavy rain from tropical moisture will spread over the Southwest U.S. through Wed.
"Sergio" is strengthening well offshore of Mexico, far to the south of the Baja & will turn northwest over open water through late week then veer back to the west.