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** There are no tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or any of the coastal U.S. anytime soon **
October is the 2nd to last month of the "official" hurricane season.
We'll need to watch the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico next week through the following week for the possibility of attempts at tropical development.
Global forecast models develop low pressure over the Central Atlantic next week. This low could become tropical but is likely to stay far out to sea.
An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones. It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.
2019 names..... "Melissa" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg. A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:
While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Global tropical activity (not much!):