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** There are no tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or any of the coastal U.S. anytime soon **
October is the 2nd to last month of the "official" hurricane season.
We'll need to watch the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico next week through the following week for the possibility of attempts at tropical development.
A large/impressive tropical wave came off the coast of Africa a week ago Sunday & was deemed t.d. #13.... then upgraded to tropical storm "Lorenzo" Mon. morning & to a hurricane early Wed. become a Cat. 4 Thu. & then to a remarkable satellite estimated Cat. 5 Sat. evening - over the E. Atlantic. It's the farthest east & north that a Cat. 5 has been observed but realize satellite data of the quality we have now has not been around for very long. Impressive nonetheless & only the 7th season on record with more than one Cat. 5.
Lorenzo officially became post-tropical Wednesday but - still as a large ocean storm - will bring gusty winds & heavy rain to Ireland & - to a lesser degree - Great Britain. Wave heights of 40-50 feet are forecast to lash some of the coastal areas!
The rest of the tropics are generally quiet with no named storms over the Atlantic Basin since Sept. 12th. A weak, disorganized tropical wave is over the Northwest Caribbean. Little short term development is expected as the wave drifts west/northwest near the Yucatan Peninsula.
An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones. It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.
2019 names..... "Melissa" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg. A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:
While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Global activity includes weakening "Mitag" between China & Japan turning sharply east: