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Hurricanes
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Heavy rain along the coast
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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Heavy rain along the coast

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Heavy rain along the coast

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Heavy rain along the coast

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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The tropical disturbance near the Gulf, continues to move slowly east & northeast. Tropical moisture is surging northward & will contribute to soaking rains & flooding along & near the Gulf Coast.  A combination of shear & land interaction will not allow for any further development of the low pressure system.

And there will be NO direct impact on Jacksonville or any of Fl. but some mid & upper level tropical moisture will spread eastward over the area through the weekend enhancing showers & t'storms.

Otherwise, there are no areas of immediate concern for tropical development across the Atlantic Basin.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Seasonal forecasts from NOAA & Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University (updated June 4 - parenthesis indicates previous forecast):

Graph below courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach - U.S. - landfalling U.S. hurricnes by month strongly favoring August, September & October:

And there's good news with the hurricane forecast cone - it's narrowing because of more accurate forecasts.  The cone is often times confused with the size & forecast danger area of the tropical cyclone.  In reality, all the cone represents is the potential forecast track error.  More * here *.  Map below tweeted by @BMcNoldy (Brian McNoldy):

Atlantic Basin:

0

East Atlantic:

1

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:

SE U.S. surface map:

0

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

1

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

2

Caribbean:

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The Latest News Headlines

  • An Ohio school bus driver is facing charges of OVI and child endangering after she crashed the bus into a road sign Wednesday morning with students aboard.  >> Read more trending news  The Preble Shawnee Local Schools bus driver, identified as 44-year-old Amy L. Jones of Gratis Township, likely was impaired when the bus struck the sign on Camden Road west of U.S. 127, Sheriff Mike Simpson said in a media release. No children or staff were hurt. Jones was cited for OVI and child endangering and is scheduled to appear Aug. 26 in Preble County Municipal Court.  Students on the bus said they noticed things were not right with their driver from the start. “It didn’t feel like her normal self this morning,” senior Bethany Goodwin said. “She was really slurring her words,” student Hayden Schaffer said. They said it got worse as the drive went on. “She was, like, all over the road,” Schaffer said. “It seemed like she was kind of swerving in and out a little bit,” Goodwin said. At 7 a.m., Crystal Bissantz got a call from her daughter no parent wants, saying, 'Mom! ... We’ve been in a wreck.' The bus hit a sign on Camden Road, which students said shattered a mirror and door on the bus. No one was hurt, but students said they were scared. “I was shaking and nervous and my heart was racing,” Goodwin said. Following the crash, the driver took the students back to school. That’s where school leaders and deputies became concerned. Cruiser camera footage shows Jones wobbling as she took a field sobriety test in what appears to be a bus storage barn. Alcohol was ruled out as a factor in the crash, but investigators suspect she was under the influence of something else, Simpson said. Bissantz said she is relieved her daughter is safe, but has many questions, such as why it took hours to give her any information.  “The communications needs to be better,” she said. The district activated its call system mid-afternoon to alert parents, which stated: “The bus sustained minor damage and was operable.” As for students, hearing their driver may have been under the influence is not too surprising. “I mean, I believe it,” Schaffer said. But some students say they can no longer trust that school officials and staff will keep them safe. “I feel scared now to ride the bus at school,” Goodwin said. “It was just lucky that we were all OK ... and we made it through.” Jones is on administrative leave pending the investigation, district Superintendent Matt Bishop said in a statement.  “The safety of our students and staff is our number one goal. The district will take whatever action is necessary to uphold that goal,” Bishop said. 
  • Expect another mainly dry day in NE Florida as temperatures rise into the low 90’s.  Feels-like temps will climb to near 100 and most of the rain will be inland and in SE Georgia.  The hot and mainly dry weather continues on Friday with afternoon temps in the low 90’s. The average high is 91.  The weekend appears to be a little unsettled with a threat for scattered rain and thunderstorms both days.  High temps stay in the low 90’s but drop off significantly where it rains.  TROPICS:  Mike Buresh tracks the tropics daily In the tropics, Chantal has weakened to a depression and will stay out to sea in the north/central Atlantic. We are tracking an area of disorganized thunderstorms near The Bahamas that is expected to move closer to the Florida coast over the next few days.  While some development is possible, it is unlikely we will see much rain. The greatest risk will be rough seas. 
  • Police in Florida said a 16-year-old high school student made a shooting threat through a text message from a phone belonging to her sister, who attends a Catholic school, and sent it to a group chat.  >> Read more trending news  According to the Altamonte Springs Police Department, the principal of St. Mary Magdalen Catholic School received information from several parents regarding a group chat with several sixth-graders. One of the parents said the threat was made to the school by the 16-year-old's sister, who attends Lyman High School. According to police, the text message said: 'Next person to say something is the first person I will shoot on the school shooting that will take place this Friday… Kate you're getting shot for fun I can't stand that fish face.' The sister of the student reportedly told officials that around 9 p.m. Tuesday, she was doing homework in her room with her sister. She said there were several messages alerting her phone, which caused her older sister to take the phone, police said. The girl said she was unaware that her sister had typed the message and sent it to the group chat, according to police. The officer working on campus took immediate action to ensure the safety of all students. The 16-year-old was charged with written threats to kill, do bodily harm or conduct a mass shooting, authorities said.
  • The search for Brian McCluney and Justin Walker is shifting to South Carolina as we approach one full week since the men left the space coast for a fishing trip.  “We’re in some critical times right now”, said JFRD Interim Chief Keith Powers.  Since Friday, more than 90,000 square miles of ocean has been searched by the Coast Guard and hundreds of volunteers. While some debris was found on Wednesday, nothing has been linked to the missing men since Monday, when McCluney’s tackle bag was recovered off the coast of St. Augustine.  Their fishing vessel has not been found. Two organizations are offering $20,000 in reward money for any boater or pilot who finds the missing firefighters.  And if you would like to help, Jacksonville Fire and Rescue has set up a fund to support search efforts and ultimately the families of the firefighters. 
  • A Texas man was sentenced to life in prison Friday after a jury convicted him of capital murder in the 2015 drowning death of his girlfriend's toddler nephew. >> Read more trending news  According to KTRE, prosecutors said Bobby Woods Jr., 21, shoved Mason Cuttler, 3, into a pond near the family's Lufkin home and left him to drown. Woods, who was dating the boy's aunt, Billie Jean Cuttler, said he thought she was pregnant when he killed the boy, who lived in the same home as Woods, Cuttler and 'several families,' The Associated Press reported. Woods believed their house was too crowded and wanted to make room for the new baby, he reportedly told police. An attorney later said the woman was not pregnant, the news agency reported. Woods will not be eligible for parole, according to the AP. Cuttler, 23, also initially faced a capital murder charge in the incident, but agreed to a plea deal amid concerns over her intellectual competency, KTRE and the AP reported. She received a 20-year prison sentence after she pleaded guilty to a charge of conspiracy to commit murder, authorities said. Read more here or here. – The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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