On Air Now

Listen Now

Weather

cloudy-day
65°
Cloudy
H 78° L 61°
  • cloudy-day
    65°
    Current Conditions
    Cloudy. H 78° L 61°
  • cloudy-day
    63°
    Morning
    Cloudy. H 78° L 61°
  • cloudy-day
    69°
    Afternoon
    Cloudy. H 70° L 45°
Listen
Pause
Error

The latest top stories

00:00 | 00:00

Listen
Pause
Error

The latest traffic report

00:00 | 00:00

Listen
Pause
Error

The latest forecast

00:00 | 00:00

Hurricanes
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Humberto, tropical storm Imelda & tropical depression #10
Close

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Humberto, tropical storm Imelda & tropical depression #10

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Humberto, tropical storm Imelda & tropical depression #10

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Humberto, tropical storm Imelda & tropical depression #10

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH "Surviving the Storm"

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"

RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

ATLANTIC BASIN "HOT SPOTS":

(1) hurricane Humberto - hurricane WARNING for Bermuda

(2) tropical depression #10 over the Central Atlantic

(3) tropical storm "Imelda" over the extreme NW Gulf of Mexico

(4) parade of tropical waves from the Eastern Caribbean to Africa.......

HURRICANE HUMBERTO:

There will be no inland local impacts from Humberto but the combination of Humberto well to the east & high pressure to the north will result in a continuation of dangerous conditions at our (Fl./Ga. & much of east coast & Bahamas) beaches.  Rough seas & surf will only slowly subside & a very high rip current risk will continue much of this week.

Tropical depression #9 was upgraded late Friday afternoon... to tropical storm Humberto late Fri. evening... & to a hurricane Sunday evening - while east of Florida & north of the Bahamas.  The storm continues to organize & strengthen with a broad eye that's becoming more & more symmetrical. 

Overall conditions look favorable for strengthening into Wed. & Humberto could become a Cat. 3 while turning sharply to the east/northeast & - by midweek - accelerating away from the U.S.  There look to be some impacts on Bermuda mid to late week where a hurricane WARNING has been issued.  Hurricane hunter aircraft have found an ever widening wind field.

The positioning & strength of the Bermuda high over the Atlantic plus an incoming upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. is again (like Dorian) playing an important role in the track. 

Sunday afternoon - at about 30-35,000 feet - there was a weakening trough will be over New England while the Bermuda high starts to strengthen over the Central Atlantic & the upper low over the Gulf "peels" away to the west.  This essentially leaves an alleyway over Fl. giving Humberto an "out" well to the east of Fl.  After a brief "rest" or stutter/wobble to the north or even northwest while northwest of Bermuda, Humberto will resume its northeast movement while accelerating to the N. Atlantic.

Ensemble model forecasts for Humberto show a nice shift east:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10:

#10 formed from an African tropical wave that's been moving steadily - though slowly - west/northwest.  The depression should pretty quickly become a tropical storm ("Jerry")... & eventually a hurricane.  Though uncomfortably close by Fri. into the weekend to Puerto Rico, present indications are that #10 will be north of the Greater Antilles.  However, all the folks in the Caribbean nations/islands need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  Beyond this weekend, EARLY indications are that #10 turns more northward but whether or not the tropical cyclone makes a full (harmless) turn to the north & stays out to sea is still something to be carefully watched.  The Bermuda high looks to be re-strengthening late in the month, so #10 may not necessarily be a "clean up & out".  And if #10 does end up recurving there's other tropical trouble to follow (see below).

Recent global model forecast trends are farther west next week likely due to a combination of a weaker system initially being more steered by the low level prevailing easterlies & the strengthening of the Bermuda high to the north.  Do stay tuned.

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA:

A wider view of the Gulf/SW Atlantic shows Humberto as well as an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico that helped spawn a surface low over the Northwest Gulf quickly leading to the development of tropical storm Imelda.  Luckily... time is running out for more significant development as Imelda made landfall at Freeport, Texas about 2pm EDT with sustained tropical storm force winds verified by several coastal reporting stations.  Very heavy rain & flooding will plague coastal SE Texas as far inland as Houston & College Station.

CENTRAL & EASTERN ATLANTIC:

There are a several active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic that will likely develop with long term track the big question mark (of course!).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & "cipher".  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on development not to mention the location, but the Northeast Caribbean may be faced with another named storm (#10) this week & yet again possibly the following week.  Also of interest.... a lead wave that had been weakening has now flared with some disorganized t'storms recently while moving into the Eastern Caribbean - something to keep an eye perhaps over the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into next week. And there are multiple strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa with at least one likely to develop by the weekend or shortly therafter.

 

 

An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.

2019 names..... "Jerry" & "Karen" are next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

 

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to "mix out"):

While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

 

Read More

The Latest News Headlines

  • Neighbors in St. Johns County could soon have another option when it comes to health care. Flagler Health+ has plans to build a health and wellness campus in Durbin Park, which will include a hospital and health village.  Action News Jax Courtney Cole gave us details on the project and talked to neighbors to see how they feel about the possible new addition.  'It’s amazing, the progress they’re making!' Linda Jackson exclaimed.  Jackson said she’s lived in St. Johns County all her life.  She said growing up in a small town, St. Augustine, she’s excited to see signs of new development.  'These streets, this was nothing but trees,” Jackson told Cole.  Now, neighbors feel like there are constantly new things popping up, including between I-95 and State Road 9B.  That’s where Flagler Health+ is working with developer GATE Lands.  They're planning to build a comprehensive, 40-acre health and wellness campus.  It will include a health village with family practice, women’s care, pediatrics, urgent care and an 80-bed hospital, set to open in 2023.  While we were driving in the area, we noticed a couple of urgent care centers affiliated with Baptist Health.  Baptist Medical Center South is also only about a 6-mile drive from the area.  When Cole asked the spokesperson for Flagler Health+ about any concerns involving their proximity to other competing hospitals, here’s what they had to say:  “Our market assessment demonstrates a clear need for more health care providers and additional hospital services in the northern part of St. Johns County. Flagler Health+ has been caring for the residents of St. Johns County for more than 130 years and we are excited to bring a new concept in health and wellness to the area that will meet identified needs and advance the physical, social and economic health of this community.”  Neighbors said they’re OK with having a lot of options.  “As long as it’s for the people and not for their pocket, that will be fine,” Jackson said.  But there is something Jackson said she’d like to see come to Durbin Park: “Target! We need a Target!”  Flagler Health+ told Cole the project would cost approximately $200 million.  Flagler Health+ plans to break ground on the project this fall and open it in phases once it receives final approval commission.
  • After a week of investigation, the school district said the Clay County District Schools Police Department “could not establish a causal relationship between the food and the alleged illnesses” of Oakleaf Junior High School students whose parents said they tested positive for THC after eating food served during a class presentation on February 7.  QUICK FACTS:  The Clay County School District says investigators have not been able to confirm bread brought into a classroom was laced with THC and made children sick.  Some parents told Action News Jax they are frustrated with the results of the investigation and want more accountability from the school.  “Not even the place that you send them where they’re supposed to be okay during the day is OK either,” parent Alysha Pierre said.  Pierre’s stepson was one of the 8th grade students that tested positive for THC. She showed the lab results to Action News Jax reporter Elizabeth Pace.  “It makes me angry because these big corporations have all these people, you have these people to back you, but who protects my children, that’s what I want to know,” Pierre said.  After hearing the conclusion of the investigation, some parents told Action News Jax they are frustrated and want accountability from the school.  “Just for someone to stand up and say, ‘You know what, something obviously happened and someone is going to take responsibility,’” Pierre said. “But to me it just seems like it’s not going to happen and I’m not surprised at it at all.”  The Clay County School District released the following statement on the investigation:  “The Clay County District Schools Police Department learned that several students and a teacher at Oakleaf Junior High School claimed to be ill after consuming food during class on Friday, February 7, 2020. After more than a week of investigation, which included interviews and testing, the Police could not establish a causal relationship between the food and the alleged illnesses. This event has provided an opportunity for the District to review existing policies on food prepared outside of the cafeteria. As always, safety is the highest priority and the District will continue to search and identify ways to increase positive experiences for all students and staff.”
  • A court ruled that Florida cannot bar felons who served their time from voting, even if they haven’t paid their fines or court fees. Amendment 4, approved by voters in 2018, allowed nonviolent felons who served their time to regain the right to vote. Lawmakers passed a bill in 2019 that required some of those felons to pay off court fees, fines and restitution before they were able to vote. That law is now being argued in court. A three-judge panel of the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the original ruling by a Tallahassee federal judge that requiring paying all fines and fees first is an unfair poll tax. Gov. Ron DeSantis said the state will immediately ask the entire 11th Circuit to reconsider the ruling. It was not immediately clear whether felons with unpaid fees would be able to vote by the upcoming primaries.
  • The St. Johns County Sheriff’s Office is asking the community for help in identifying a body that was found behind a Family Dollar on Feb 14, around 10 a.m. According to SJSO, the body was recovered behind Family Dollar at 500 SR 16, St. Augustine.  The St. Johns County Sheriff’s Office describes the body:  40’s to early 50’s  Approximately 6-feet tall  165-pounds  Medium length dark hair  Scruffy short beard with some graying  Wearing black flip-flops, khaki cargo shorts, long sleeve dark grey pullover sweatshirt  Tattoo of a small Celtic type cross on the inside of his right leg above the ankle  Anyone with information on the possible identity of this individual is asked to contact Detective James Jackson of the Major Crimes Unit at (904) 209-2142 or email jpjackson@sjso.org.
  • Authorities in Missouri have arrested three relatives after an 11-year-old girl gave birth last week in a bathtub at a home in the St. Louis suburbs, according to multiple reports. An adult man and an adult woman have been charged with endangering the welfare of a child in connection to the case. A 17-year-old boy was also arrested on charges of incest, statutory rape and statutory sodomy of a child younger than 12 years old, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and The Associated Press. The birth was discovered after a man brought the newborn to a hospital, claiming the child had been left on his front porch, KSDK reported. Charging documents obtained by the news station showed the infant had a body temperature of 90 degrees and still had an umbilical cord and placenta attached after being brought to the hospital. The man later admitted that he was related to the baby and told authorities he was unaware the 11-year-old girl was pregnant until she gave birth to the child, according to the AP. The man was arrested and charged with endangering the welfare of a child, KSDK reported. A judge ordered him held in lieu of a $10,000 cash-only bond. Charging documents said he came to the country illegally and had previously been deported, according to the AP. In a probable cause statement obtained by the Post-Dispatch, authorities said a 17-year-old boy related to the 11-year-old girl admitted to having sexually assaulted the girl about 100 times. After his arrest last week, a judge ordered him held in lieu of a $25,000 bond, according to the newspaper. Authorities made a third arrest in the case Tuesday, charging an adult woman with failing to provide the 11-year-old with medical care as she was giving birth. She was ordered held in lieu of a $10,000 bond, according to the AP.

The Latest News Videos