Nov. 13, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"
**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **
A large area of disorganized showers & storms continues over the Eastern Atlantic between the Caribbean & the west coast of Africa but shear will limit any development with little/no chance for the system to make it very far west.
Low pressure will develop over or near Florida by Friday. This low will then move to the W. Atlantic east & northeast of Jacksonville while intensifying & slowly pivoting north/northeast. Tropical development is unlikely but some subtropical characteristics - once east of Fl. - are possible. No major impacts on the U.S. once over the Western Atlantic outside of enhanced onshore flow for the Carolina's + some coastal rain.
Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season. Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.
Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.
Atlantic dust:
2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Global tropical activity:
