Oct. 25, 2017 - Photos: Must-see photos of Irma damage in Jacksonville area .... hurricane Irma recap
Western Caribbean disturbance...
Showers & t'storms continue to "fester" over the Western Caribbean as low pressure slowly develops & tries to consolidate. This area bears watching as gradual tropical development may evolve though close proximity to Central America will greatly hinder the process initially. Indications are that the system will be rather weak & will get pulled north/northeast rather quickly this weekend into early next week as a strong upper level trough re-establishes itself over the Eastern U.S. Therefore, expect a track south & east of Jacksonville but possibly near - or even over - S. Florida with heavy rain for Central & Southern Florida over the weekend. The next name on the list is Philippe.
Spaghetti plots below for Caribbean disturbance. Currently a lack of models because some forecast models are not yet "onboard" with a tropical system becoming fully developed.
The very strong upper level trough of low pressure - image below is the GFS model forecast for midday Sat., Oct. 28th - shows the "buckling" jet stream. The small low near S. Florida is the disturbance that's moving north out of the Caribbean. The large trough will guide the disturbance - possibly Philippe - north/northeast.
Interesting map below tweeted by Erik Pindrock shows virtually all of Fl. has experienced at least tropical storm force winds this year... as well as the entire Gulf Coast... & as far north as N. Carolina on the east coast:
Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean.....
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
East Atlantic IR satellite:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS).
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Extensive hurricane Irma recap - click here.