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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure SE of New England... typhoon headed for Japan

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure SE of New England... typhoon headed for Japan

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure SE of New England... typhoon headed for Japan

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure SE of New England... typhoon headed for Japan

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH "Surviving the Storm"

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"

RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

** There are no immediate tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or any of the coastal U.S. anytime soon. An offshore storm over the NW Atlantic will produce gusty winds, beach erosion & some heavy coastal rain for New England into Friday **

..... & we'll need to watch the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico the next few weeks for the possibility of attempts at tropical development.

Cat. 5 hurricane Michael devastated the Central Fl. Panhandle one year ago - on Oct. 10th.  Read my blog about the storm * here *.... my visit to Ground Zero * here *... a podcast of victim's memories in their own words * here *.

Right now: An area of low pressure is taking shape over the Northwest Atlantic southeast of New England. This low will remain just about stationary or meander - possibly even loop -  through Friday until the low is picked up by trough moving into the Northeast U.S. Some subtropical (hybrid) development is possible with this low, but the system will eventually move northeast away from the U.S. over the weekend.  Still... there will be rough seas & surf for parts of the Mid Atlantic & New England along with gusty winds & heavy rain close to the coast.

This ocean storm will have no impact on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.



An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.

2019 names..... "Melissa" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:


East Atlantic:

Thunderstorms have been rather persistent over the SW Caribbean.  Some development is possible, but the disturbance will then move into Central America over land fairly soon.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:



Global tropical activity:

Super typhoon "Hagibis" is forecast to hit Japan by the weekend with major impacts on Tokyo - local info. * here *.  Not as strong as the storm currently is but still significant with sustained winds at Cat. 1 hurricane force - 80-90 mph....

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The Latest News Headlines

  • Authorities in Oklahoma found a child's body in the Verdigris River in Wagoner County late Tuesday. According to KOKI-TV, Muskogee County authorities said people along the river reported seeing the body. Emergency teams from Wagoner and Muskogee counties searched the river and found the body overnight. Tulsa police are going to Muskogee on Wednesday morning to see whether the body, which has not been identified, is connected to the recent disappearance of two toddlers near Mingo Valley Creek. Crews have been searching for Miracle Lashay Crook, 3, and Tony Demone Crook, 2, who were last seen by their mother, Donisha Willis, on Friday, police said. Willis was later arrested and charged with child endangerment. Read more here. – Visit Fox23.com for the latest on this developing story.
  • A driver is dead after crashing into a utility pole during a high-speed police chase on Jacksonville's westside Tuesday night.   The Jacksonville Sheriff's Office says just before 6:30 pm, officers noticed a vehicle driving recklessly through a parking lot near Lem Turner Road and I-95, almost hitting a pedestrian.  JSO attempted to conduct a traffic stop on the vehicle, but the driver failed to stop and fled south on I-95 and continued onto I-10 westbound in the emergency lane.  The driver then lost control of the vehicle, went off the road and hit a utility pole near Chaffee Road. The driver, who has not been identified, died at the scene. 
  • A Texas father is facing a first-degree murder charge after authorities said he fatally shot a man accused of abusing his daughter, Sabine County Sheriff Tom Maddox said. According to KTRE, deputies arrested Lon L. Hall, 63, of Hemphill, on Saturday in the death of his daughter’s boyfriend, 30-year-old Roshaun McQueen. Hall has since been released from the Sabine County Jail on his own recognizance, the Hemphill Daily News and More reported. Authorities said the shooting occurred shortly before 9 a.m. Saturday at a Hemphill home, KTRE reported. McQueen was dead when deputies arrived at the scene, where authorities found Hall and three other women, according to the Daily News. Hall told authorities that he had come to the home after learning that McQueen had choked Hall's daughter, who was McQueen's girlfriend, during a dispute about marijuana, KTRE reported. The woman told her sister about the attack, who alerted Hall and Hall's wife, deputies said. Hall and the two other women then went to the home, where McQueen 'came to the front door with a gun in an aggravated manner,' according to the news station. Hall then fired at McQueen, hitting him in the chest, deputies said. Read more here or here.
  • Jacksonville small business owners have another opportunity for help with rent and mortgage payments. The Jacksonville City Council passed a bill creating a $9 million relief grant program.  Grants of $2,000 would be available to 4,500 small local businesses. In order to qualify the business would need to have fewer than 100 employees and be able to demonstrate a loss of 25% of more in revenue as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak.  Another resolution approved by City Council would help families struggling to afford basic needs. $5 million in CARES Act funds would be available to local families. A report from the United Way of Northeast Florida found one out of every 3 people couldn’t meet their bills before the pandemic; COVID-19 has only amplified that problem. 
  • The soaking start to this week has triggered the start to NE Florida’s wet season.  Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh is tracking more rounds of heavy rain today. “Midday and afternoon showers and storms should pick up with a little bit of heating. There still won’t be a whole lot of sun today but enough sun and enough dry periods to get hotter than yesterday, into the 80’s. And we may even manage a strong storm or two if we can get enough sunshine”, said Buresh.  The area saw between 1 and 3 inches of rain on Tuesday, locally more rain near and south of I-10, the area that had been the driest.  A summer-like weather pattern continues through the weekend, with hot, humid conditions and heavy afternoon/evening shower and storms.  Buresh says a weak area of low pressure near Florida is not likely to become tropical before moving ashore in the Carolina’s later today or tonight. He says there is a slight chance it could become a tropical depression but doesn’t change the local forecast.  LISTEN TO THE MIKE BURESH WEATHER PODCAST HERE 

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