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** There are no immediate tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. The offshore ocean storm over the NW Atlantic has become subtropical storm "Melissa" & will produce gusty winds, beach erosion & some heavy coastal rain for New England into early Saturday **
..... & we'll need to watch the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico through at least the end of the month for the possibility of attempts at tropical development.
Cat. 5 hurricane Michael devastated the Central Fl. Panhandle one year ago this week - on Oct. 10th. Read my blog about the storm * here *.... my visit to Ground Zero * here *... a podcast of victim's memories in their own words * here *. There will be many local events through the weekend commemorating the storm.
An area of low pressure over the Northwest Atlantic southeast of New England has been upgraded to subtropical storm Melissa (not purely tropical). This slow moving low will be picked up by a trough moving into the Northeast U.S. over the weekend & taken out to sea. There will be rough seas & surf for parts of the Mid Atlantic & New England along with gusty winds & heavy rain close to the coast through Fri. night.
Melissa will have no impact on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. & true tropical development is not likely with this low.
An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones. It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.
2019 names..... "Nestor" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:
Thunderstorms have been rather persistent over the SW Caribbean. Some development is possible, but the disturbance will then move into Central America over land by early next week.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg. A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:
While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Global tropical activity:
Typhoon "Hagibis" is forecast to hit Japan Fri. night into Sat. with major impacts on Tokyo - local info. * here *. The tropical cyclone will be off its peak but still significant with sustained winds potentially at Cat. 1 hurricane force - 75+ mph....