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Atlantic Basin: NON-tropical low pressure will move east/northeast across the Southeast U.S. then up the east coast &/or the far Western Atlantic through the weekend. The low will only slowly strengthen until getting to the east coast at which point strong upper level energy with an upper level trough will help to rapidly deepen the low into a coastal nor'easter bringing heavy rain & gusty winds to the Mid Atlantic & Northeast U.S. over the weekend.
Low pressure has developed over the Central Atlantic & is likely to become tropical storm "Oscar". The low will move northwest initially then turn westward before going north later next week well to the east of the U.S..... & southeast & east of Bermuda.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
The Atlantic Basin.....
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
In the West Pacific.... super typhoon Yutu has quickly intensified & will move slowly west/northwest avoiding - for the moment - highly populated areas but Yutu was a big hit on the U.S. territories - Northern Marianas Islands well north & northeast of Guam. By midweek - a weaker but still formidable - typhoon will near the Northern Philippines.