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Hurricanes
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nontropical low over Southeast U.S.... rain & wind east coast
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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nontropical low over Southeast U.S.... rain & wind east coast

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nontropical low over Southeast U.S.... rain & wind east coast

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nontropical low over Southeast U.S.... rain & wind east coast

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

Atlantic Basin: NON-tropical low pressure will move east/northeast across the Southeast U.S. then up the east coast &/or the far Western Atlantic through the weekend.  The low will only slowly strengthen until getting to the east coast at which point strong upper level energy with an upper level trough will help to rapidly deepen the low into a coastal nor'easter bringing heavy rain & gusty winds to the Mid Atlantic & Northeast U.S. over the weekend.

Low pressure has developed over the Central Atlantic & is likely to become tropical storm "Oscar".  The low will move northwest initially then turn westward before going north later next week well to the east of the U.S..... & southeast & east of Bermuda.

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

0

Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....

1

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

 

In the West Pacific.... super typhoon Yutu has quickly intensified & will move slowly west/northwest avoiding - for the moment - highly populated areas but Yutu was a big hit on the U.S. territories - Northern Marianas Islands well north & northeast of Guam. By midweek - a weaker but still formidable - typhoon will near the Northern Philippines.

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The Latest News Headlines

  • One pilot was killed and another hurt when a military jet crashed Tuesday at Texas' Laughlin Air Force Base, officials said. >> Read more trending news  According to a news release, the Air Force T-38C Talon crashed at 7:40 p.m. Tuesday on the base. One pilot died, while the other was taken to Val Verde Regional Medical Center for treatment. >> See the Facebook post here 28 yr old Capt. John F. Graziano, an instructor pilot with the 87th Flying Training Squadron was killed in the crash according to the Air Force’s Air Education & Training Command. Injured in the accident was Capt. Mark S. Palyok, also an instructor pilot. He was released from Val Verde Regional Medical Center on Nov.14. The incident is under investigation, officials said. Read more here.
  • A man has surrendered after walking in to a local Burger King and saying he had a bomb in his backpack. Police now say there was no device found. The Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office was called to the scene on N Edgewood Avenue around 5:30PM. Roughly five customers and five staff members were evacuated from the Burger King. JSO says, initially, the suspect- who’s now been identified as 30-year-old Andrew Pearce- refused to leave. After speaking with investigators, we’re told he safely surrendered. JSO’s Hazardous Devices Unit was called to inspect the backpack, and treated it like it contained a bomb initially because of the threat. They have since determined there was no device. It’s unclear at this time what motivated this Pearce’s actions. He is being charged with making a false threat of bombs and criminal mischief.
  • CNN filed suit Tuesday against President Donald Trump and his top aides, arguing they violated both the network’s and reporter Jim Acosta's constitutional rights when he was banned from the White House last week. >> Read more trending news Update 5:40 p.m. EST Nov. 14: The judge in the CNN lawsuit against President Donald Trump and other administration officials over banning reporter Jim Acosta from the White House said he’ll issue a ruling Thursday at 3 p.m., according to news outlets. U.S. District Court Judge Timothy J. Kelly heard arguments from both sides in a two hour hearing Wednesday afternoon. It’s the first hearing in CNN and Acosta’s federal lawsuit against Trump and other administration officials over the suspension of Acosta’s White House press pass. The network and Acosta contend the suspension violated the First and Fifth Amendments. The White House said in a Justice Department filing Wednesday that it has “broad discretion” to decide which journalists get permanent press passes. Journalism advocates said that the White House position is a break with historical tradition, with past administrations granting press access to large and small news outlets, and that the Acosta suspension is an unprecedented step that could have a negative impact on journalism. Update 12:05 p.m. EST Nov. 14: In a court filing Wednesday, the Justice Department argued, 'No journalist has a First Amendment right to enter the White House,' after CNN sued the Trump administration for revoking Acosta’s press credentials, The Hill reported. 'The president and White House possess the same broad discretion to regulate access to the White House for journalists (and other members of the public) that they possess to select which journalists receive interviews, or which journalists they acknowledge at press conferences,' attorneys said in the filing, according to The Hill. Attorneys for CNN filed suit Tuesday in U.S. District Court in Washington. A judge scheduled a hearing in the case for 3 p.m. Wednesday. Update 11:45 a.m. EST Nov. 14: More than a dozen news organizations on Wednesday announced their intent to support CNN in the network’s suit against the Trump administration. 'Whether the news of the day concerns national security, the economy, or the environment, reporters covering the White House must remain free to ask questions,' officials from organizations including The Associated Press and The New York Times, said Wednesday in a joint statement.  'It is imperative that independent journalists have access to the President and his activities, and that journalists are not barred for arbitrary reasons.' Update 11:15 a.m. EST Nov. 14: Fox News plans to file an amicus brief in support of CNN in the news network's lawsuit against the Trump administration, Fox News president Jay Wallace said Wednesday in a statement. 'Secret Service passes for working White House journalists should never be weaponized,' Wallace said. 'While we don't condone the growing antagonistic tone by both the President and the press at recent media avails, we do support a free press, access and open exchanges for the American people.' CNN filed suit against Trump and several officials Tuesday, days after reporter Jim Acosta had his press credentials revoked following a contentious exchange with the president. White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders accused Acosta in a statement released after the incident of “placing his hands on a young woman just trying to do her job as a White House intern.” Update 10:25 p.m. EST Nov. 13: A federal judge has given the Trump administration until 11 a.m. Wednesday morning to respond to CNN’s lawsuit demanding a temporary restraining order in the battle over the White House’s revocation of reporter Jim Acosta’s press credentials, according to The Washington Post. A hearing is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon in U.S. District Court in Washington. CNN’s attorney said the network is considering whether to request financial damages in its claim against President Donald Trump. Original report: In the lawsuit, filed in D.C. District Court, attorneys for CNN asked for Acosta’s press credentials to be immediately reinstated and protected. >> White House suspends CNN reporter Jim Acosta’s press credentials “While the suit is specific to CNN and Acosta, this could have happened to anyone,” CNN officials said in a statement. “If left unchallenged, the actions of the White House would create a dangerous chilling effect for any journalist who covers our elected officials.” Attorneys for CNN named six defendants in the suit, including Trump, chief of staff John Kelly and White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders. The lawsuit alleged the decision to revoke Acosta’s credentials was a “severe and unprecedented punishment” following “years of hostility by President Trump against CNN and Acosta based on the contents of their reporting.” >> Sarah Sanders tweeted ‘doctored’ video of Jim Acosta: WaPost “(It’s) an unabashed attempt to censor the press and exclude reporters from the White House who challenge and dispute the President’s point of view,” CNN attorneys said in the lawsuit. Acosta’s press credentials were suspended Wednesday after a White House intern attempted to take his microphone during a news conference with Trump. Huckabee Sanders released a statement after the incident accusing Acosta of “placing his hands on a young woman just trying to do her job as a White House intern.”
  • A judge in a New Hampshire criminal case has ordered Amazon to turn over audio recordings from one of the company’s Echo devices, which may have caught the sounds of a January 2017 double homicide.  Timothy Verrill, 36, of Dover, is charged with two counts of first-degree murder in the fatal stabbings of Christine M. Sullivan, 48, and 32-year-old Jenna Marie Pellegrini. He is expected to stand trial in May. >> Read more trending news A judge last week ordered Amazon to turn over the recordings from an Echo smart home device that was in the Farmington home where the women were killed Jan. 27, according to The Washington Post. The news station said prosecutors believe the device, which awaits “Alexa” voice commands from household members, might have recorded the women’s deaths, along with the moments before and after they were killed.   Prosecutors in the case already had the speaker as evidence, but a judge was required to compel Amazon officials to release any recordings the company has on its servers. The court seeks to have released data from Jan. 27, when the women were allegedly killed, through Jan. 29, when their bodies were found. “The court finds there is probable cause to believe the server(s) and/or records maintained for or by Amazon.com contain recordings made by the Echo smart speaker from the period of Jan. 27 to Jan. 29, 2017 . . . and that such information contains evidence of crimes committed against Ms. Sullivan, including the attack and possible removal of the body from the kitchen,” the ruling stated, according to the Post. Amazon officials told the Post they will release the data only after a valid legal demand has been served.  Sullivan and Pellegrini were slain at a home in Farmington, where Verrill is accused of stabbing both women multiple times and striking Sullivan over the head with a blunt object, according to the New Hampshire Department of Justice. According to The Rochester Voice, autopsies showed that Sullivan had a fractured skull and stab wounds to the neck and lungs. Pellegrini, a hairstylist who left behind two small children, was stabbed 43 times in the neck, torso and back, the newspaper said.  Verrill, who was indicted last November, is also charged with two counts of reckless second-degree murder and five counts of falsifying physical evidence, DOJ officials said. The home where the women were killed belonged to Sullivan’s longtime boyfriend, convicted drug dealer Dean Smoronk, the Voice reported. Sullivan lived in the home and Pellegrini was her houseguest at the time of their killings.  The reckless second-degree murder charges allege that, alternatively to committing first-degree murder, Verrill “recklessly caused the death of (both women) under circumstances manifesting an extreme indifference to the value of human life” by stabbing them and by striking Sullivan in the head, the DOJ news release said.  The charges of falsifying evidence stem from allegations that Verrill hid the women’s bodies, which he wrapped in tarps, trash bags and other coverings, under the porch at Smoronk’s home. Their bodies were found a couple of days later after Smoronk, who had been visiting his rental property in Florida, reported Sullivan missing upon his return home.   DOJ officials said Verrill altered a blood stain on the porch by pouring Prestone Driveway Heat ice melter onto it. He is also accused of concealing bloodstained sheets, as well as Pellegrini’s belongings, in a black trash bag in the basement of the home.  “It is alleged that Mr. Verrill committed these crimes with a purpose to impair the verity or availability of the evidence in (a criminal) proceeding or investigation,” the news release said.  The Voice reported in January, around the first anniversary of the slayings, that Verrill told an acquaintance the day before the crimes that he believed Pellegrini was a drug informant. Testimony at a bail hearing last year alleged that Sullivan was also dealing drugs out of the house. New Hampshire State Police Detective Brian Strong testified at the hearing that Pellegrini, who needed a place to stay, moved into the house on Jan. 25, two days before the slayings. The following day, Verrill went to Smoronk and Sullivan’s home to get drugs, the Voice said.  A friend of Verrill’s later told investigators that Verrill told him early the morning of the slayings that he believed Pellegrini, who was a new addition to the house, was an informant, the newspaper reported.  Strong testified that Smoronk told detectives that Sullivan called him around 2 a.m. the day of the killings to tell him Verrill had returned. Phone records backed up Smoronk’s claim, the Voice said.  Video from the house showed images of Verrill, Sullivan and Pellegrini, the newspaper reported. Sullivan was last spotted just after 3:30 a.m. and Pellegrini, around 6:38 a.m. Verrill was seen leaving the house just nine minutes later, his shoes in hand, Strong said in court.  The detective testified that Verrill’s friend told investigators Verrill showed up at his house again later that day, minus the flannel shirt and hat he was wearing in the video shot at Smoronk’s house, the Voice reported. Receipts and store surveillance also indicate that Verrill went to Lowe’s and Walmart that same day to buy salt and ammonia cleanser.  Evidence of both were found at the crime scene, the Voice reported. Verrill was arrested on the charges about a week after the slayings.
  • A shootout between two cars in Arlington has injured a teen and hit a nearby business. The Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office says the vehicles were on Merrill Road, stopped at Wedgefield Boulevard, when shots were fired around 3:30PM. One of the vehicles then fled and crashed nearby. Police say four suspects ran off from that vehicle and were able to escape, despite a lengthy manhunt that involved K9 assets and many community tips.  During the suspect search, JSO says two teen brothers showed up at the hospital, one of who was suffering a gunshot to the leg. JSO says they’re investigating whether these teens were in the second car that was involved in the shootout and, at this time, they’ve been detained on unrelated outstanding charges.  A Community First Credit Union near the intersection was hit with 7-8 bullets, according to JSO. Luckily, nobody inside was hurt.  JSO says the crashed car has shell casings and blood stains, so they’re processing that vehicle. The search for the four suspects who were in that car is also ongoing.  The motive to the shooting, and whether the people involved knew each other, isn’t clear at this point. JSO says early indications are there is no tie to gangs, but it is too early to rule anything out.

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