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Hurricanes
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Several Atlantic disturbances + W. Pacific super typhoon
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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Several Atlantic disturbances + W. Pacific super typhoon

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Several Atlantic disturbances + W. Pacific super typhoon

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Several Atlantic disturbances + W. Pacific super typhoon

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH "Surviving the Storm"

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"

RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

** There are no immediate tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or any of the coastal U.S. anytime soon... an offshore storm later this week into the weekend will produce heavy rain, gusty winds & beach erosion from the Mid Atlantic to New England **

..... & we'll need to watch the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico the next few weeks for the possibility of attempts at tropical development.

Global forecast models develop "twin" low pressure systems over the Atlantic this week.  One will be over the Central Atlantic which may end up giving way to the larger/stronger low to its west.

Another area of low pressure will develop this week over the Western Atlantic between the Carolina's & Bermuda. This low will remain just about stationary or possibly even drift a little west or northwest through the end of the week until the low is picked up by trough moving into the Northeast U.S. Some tropical (hybrid) development is possible with this low, but the system is likely to eventually move northeast away from the U.S. in the long run.  Still... there will be rough seas & surf for parts of the Mid Atlantic & New England along with gusty winds & heavy rain close to the coast.

Neither of these low pressure systems will have any significant impact on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.

A weak low is east of Florida & will merge with the system to the north before having much of a chance to develop....

 

 

An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.

2019 names..... "Melissa" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

 

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

 

Global tropical activity:

Super typhoon "Hagibis" is forecast to hit Japan by the weekend.  Not as strong as the storm currently is but still significant....

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The Latest News Headlines

  • Doctors at Baptist Health say in general, adults and children can sometimes wait months to see a counselor for their mental health needs. “There’s not enough behavioral heath providers in the community,” Dr. Terrie Andrews said.  That’s why Baptist is rolling out a new Acute Care Clinic. A $25,000 grant from CVS Health is helping them offer families same-day access to mental health services.  “If you have a cold or you're experiencing flu symptoms, you can be seen immediately in primary care. That’s what we’re wanting to build at Baptist Behavioral Health,” Dr. Andrews said.  Dr. Andrews said one in five adults and kids need mental health counseling at some point in their life.  “Something happened, maybe they’re going through a divorce they weren’t expecting,' she said. 'We’re trying to get them quick access, help to be able to stabilize them.'  She said the new clinic will also serve patients who need a prescription for their medication but can’t get an appointment with their psychiatrist.  The grant from CVS is helping to fund telehealth technology that allows doctors and patients to video chat.  Right now, the program is serving adults out of Baptist's downtown campus. Dr. Andrews says they hope to have the pediatric side of the clinic up and running by the fall.  'We know if we can intervene earlier, then their trajectory is much greater for success,' she said.  The bottom line – they want families to be able to get the help they need faster.
  • The Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office is investigating after human remains were found in North Jacksonville. A construction worker was pushing dirt with a bulldozer and found bones within a dirt mound, JSO said.  The Sheriff’s Office said the medical examiner was on site and confirmed the bones are human. The bones will be collected and taken to the medical examiner’s office where the medical examiner will work to make an identification. The identification process could take weeks, according to the Sheriff’s Office.  The dirt came from another site off Eastport Road and was brought to this site near I-295 and Main Street where workers are building a ramp.  JSO said the bones may be years, even decades old.
  • After decades of searching, a local Jacksonville man has finally found the family he never knew existed. This story dates back to the 1980s with a shocking plot twist.  Right now, Steven Flowe lives in Jacksonville. His parents, Joyce and Steven Flowe Sr. raised him in Charlotte, North Carolina. Despite having a great childhood, Steven Jr. felt like a piece of him was missing.  “Learning from my cousin that I was adopted started the curiosity,” Steven Flowe Jr., said. “I was desperately looking, you know, asking anybody, ‘Hey I was born in this area do you know’ and I told my story.”  His story started back in 1984, when a baby was found in a cardboard box on the porch of a dry cleaners in Charlotte.  The original broadcast report from our sister station, WSOC in Charlotte, explains that an employee saw a box with a big splotch of blood on top of it.  “I eased the sheet back and I saw the baby’s head,” a man said in that report.”  The baby was Steven Jr.  His story was all over the news and in newspapers too.  “It was ten days later that we picked him up and brought him home.” Joyce Flowe, Steven’s adoptive mother, said. “He's been with ever since.”  The Flowes were trying to have children, and Steven was their miracle child.  “From the first moment I looked at him and I believe I saw his eyes and he made eye contact with me, I said ‘This is my son,’ and it’s been that way ever since,” Steven Flowe Sr. said.  As Steven Jr. got older, he had questions about where he came from. He even took to the local newspaper to find his biological family.  “I think it’s my personality -- that I just have to know. I have to know the answer,” Steven Flowe, Jr. said.  His questions remained unanswered for decades. Steven moved to Jacksonville with his wife and created their own family. It wasn’t until September 2019 that his curiosity re-lit a fire inside of him, and he decided to take a DNA test. His expectations were low.  “I got my results back and it showed that I had a half sibling,” Steven Jr. said. “I was like ‘Whoa wait a minute.’ I wasn’t expecting that. I was expecting a fifth or sixth cousin but not a sibling.“  Soon after Steven Jr. got his results, Karen Perry got a Twitter message saying “we may be related.”  “He sent me a picture.” Perry said. “I was like, ‘oh my God he looks like me and my family.’“ That wasn’t even the craziest part. “He told me he lived in Jacksonville. I said I live in Jacksonville.”  The two lived less than a mile apart from each other in the Bartram Park community—just a quick four minute drive down the road.  Despite being separated for decades, it was as if the two knew each other forever.  “When I saw him in person, I felt that I knew that this was my brother,” Perry said. “I knew it was my brother.”  “When I hugged her, it was just like everything went away, and it was like this is my sister,' Steven Jr. said.  Perry eventually led Steven Jr. to his biological mother, who he said he has forgiven.  “She knew that she needed ... that I needed to be with another family.” Steven Jr. said. “I needed to be with another family.”  His family has finally come full circle.
  • Shirley Colter is a Navy veteran who lives in Orange Park. Colter uses VA Video Connect to chat with her VA health care providers. It’s new technology that lets her talk to her doctor using a smartphone, computer or tablet.  More than 1,600 veterans are using this technology.  One of the advantages is you don’t have to physically be in the VA hospital or clinic. The user can be anywhere and meet with their doctor face-to-face.  “To me it’s just as good as being in person,” Colter said.  VA Video Connect reaches patients from southern Georgia all the way down to the villages in Florida.  Dr. Melinda Screws, the chief medical officer for the Jacksonville Outpatient VA Clinic, said it’s more convenient for many patients.  “Sometimes it’s really just a relatively simple question that they need answered. Maybe they have a rash and they think they may have shingles and they can show that to me on camera and we can, ‘Yes, I think that it is shingles, or no maybe you got into some poison ivy,’” Screws said.  Colter said the technology can also help other veterans like her who may live in rural communities and can’t make the drive to a VA clinic.  “I think it’s just going to be pretty awesome, especially for those veterans that live pretty distance away from the clinic,” Colter said.  The VA says this technology will mainly be used for follow-up appointments, like speaking to patients about medications or test results.  If you would like a demonstration you can visit the Jacksonville VA Outpatient Clinic on Jefferson Street. in the Primary Care Lobby on Feb. 26 and 27.  To learn more about VA Video Connect you can head to mobile.va.gov/appstore.
  • UPDATE: The Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office says 10-year-old Sam Booker has been found safe. ORIGINAL STORY: The Jacksonville Sheriff's Office is asking for the community's help finding a missing 10-year-old.  JSO says Sam Booker was last seen walking out from his classroom at Long Branch Elementary on Franklin Street around 1:00 PM Tuesday. Due to the circumstances involved, police say they want to make sure he's safe.  Booker is described as being 4'6'' tall, 60 pounds, with brown eyes and black hair. Police say he was wearing a red hoodie, blue jeans, and red and white shoes.  If you've seen him or know where he is, you're urged to call the sheriff's office at (904) 630-0500.

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