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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strong low pressure developing NE of Jacksonville; active Pacific

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strong low pressure developing NE of Jacksonville; active Pacific

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strong low pressure developing NE of Jacksonville; active Pacific

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strong low pressure developing NE of Jacksonville; active Pacific

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

Low pressure is consolidating into a single stronger low pressure area northeast of Jacksonville & east of the Carolina's this weekend.  Tropical development is unlikely but some subtropical (or hybrid) characteristics are possible.  Though staying offshore, the low will produce gusty winds, rip currents, rough seas & surf & heavy rain at times for parts of coastal Florida & especially Georgia & the Carolina's.  The low will start to accelerate east/northeast by Sunday/Mon. over the open Atlantic.

Meanwhile.... a large area of storminess has emerged over the Central Atlantic hundreds of miles east of Puerto Rico.  Some gradual development is possible as the system drifts to the northwest through the next week or so.

Only two weeks are left in the Atlantic hurricane season!  Two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.



Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:


East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:



Over the E. Pacific.... tropical storm Raymond has formed & will impact the Southern Baja of California over the weekend but as a relatively weak system.  Still... some flooding, gusty winds & rip currents, rough seas/surf will occur through Sunday.

Global tropical activity:

Typhoon "Fengshen" will recurve over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan....

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The Latest News Headlines

  • A big change is coming to THE PLAYERS in March 2020, as tournament officials have announced a mobile-only ticket experience.  The change is being made in order to ensure the most seamless experience for all fans, according to THE PLAYERS Executive Director Jared Rice.  “Our move to mobile-only and day-specific tickets is part of a strategic effort to ensure a best-in-class experience for our fans, better anticipate attendance for each day and ultimately increase our impact on the Northeast Florida community”, Rice said.  Another change for 2020 will be with parking, as THE PLAYERS will now require parking passes every day of tournament week, Tuesday - Saturday. One thing that won’t change with parking is the free passes if you have four or more people in your vehicle. As a reminder, you will need to download a parking pass in advance at theplayers.com/parking. 
  • Despite claims of zero casualties during Iran’s missile attack earlier this month on two Iraqi airbases housing American troops, nearly one dozen U.S. service members were injured during the assault, multiple news outlets reported. According to a statement issued by U.S. Central Command in the region on Thursday, “several (U.S. troops) were treated for concussion symptoms from the blast and are still being assessed,” USA Today reported. The Hill reported the U.S. troops were airlifted to Kuwait and Germany for treatment of traumatic brain injuries and further testing. In a national address delivered the morning after the attack, President Donald Trump said, “We suffered no casualties, all of our soldiers are safe, and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases.' Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led Friday prayers in Tehran for the first time in eight years, where he mocked U.S. officials as “American clowns” and said France, Germany and the United Kingdom cannot be trusted because they are “lackeys” of the United States, CNN reported. According to The Associated Press, Iran fired a total of 15 ballistic missiles on Jan. 8 at U.S. military and coalition forces, 10 of which struck the Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq’s western Anbar province, four of which missed their targets and one of which struck a base in Irbil in Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region. Iranian officials have confirmed the Jan. 8 strikes were in retaliation for a targeted drone strike five days prior that killed Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Read more here and here.
  • The weather finally feels just about right for January. It’s breezy and cooler overall.  Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says the brisk winds and drier air will have us feeling some-20 degrees cooler than the record-setting warm days this week.  “Gusty wind off the Atlantic so it’ll be especially cool at the beaches with rough seas and surf and a high rip current risk. Looking for temperatures that should be in the mid-60’s this time of year, so really not that terribly far from where we should be. Dropping into the low 50’s tonight, a cool but decent Friday evening.  It turns warmer again Saturday but nothing record-breaking and it won’t last as long, either. Mike says a cold front comes through on Sunday, which will bring some rain at times and temps that will top out at 70 but gradually cool through the evening.  Next week will start out windy and much colder. Some neighborhoods may see a frost or freeze early on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. 
  • Six days of intensive searching for a missing California woman who suffers from dementia ended Wednesday with her joyous rescue from a snowbound SUV. According to the Butte County Sheriff’s Office, a helicopter spotted the Toyota 4Runner Paula Beth James, 68, had been driving before she vanished. The vehicle was buried in snow. “She was awake and conscious. And she looked at them, and she said, ‘I’m very cold, I hope you brought a blanket,’” Laura Powell, James’ stepdaughter, told KTXL. James was last seen on the evening of Jan. 9 in Oroville, Calif., prompting the Butte County Sheriff’s Office to issue a “silver alert,” The Washington Post reported. Her family told KTXL James stayed warm by covering herself in floor mats and running the vehicle’s heat occasionally but still developed frostbite and was dehydrated when she was located. The search for James employed the use of helicopters, snowmobiles and other methods over the course of roughly 100 hours, the Post reported. Read more here and here.
  • The Nassau County Sheriff’s Office responded to reports of a suicidal person threatening to kill his mother and son Wednesday afternoon in Yulee. According to NCSO, when deputies arrived on scene in the 78300 block of Duckwood Trail, they could hear yelling coming from the residence.  Dean was yelling that he wanted to kill officers and that he wanted officers to kill him, NCSO said.  According to the report, deputies quickly entered and removed the mother and son from the home and found Nollie Dean, 41, barricaded in a room.  Deputies left the home and set up a perimeter around the home while NCSO’s Special Response Team and negotiators responded.  After more than four hours of trying to negotiate with Dean, deputies say he broke a window out and pointed a rifle and fired towards deputies, striking the special response vehicle.  Deputies fired at the suspect, hit him and he was transported to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries.  According to NCSO, Dean was a prior convicted felon. He was booked into Nassau County jail on charges of aggravated assault on a police officer and possession of a firearm by a convicted felon.

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