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The Atlantic Basin looks about like what one would expect early in the season - plenty of shear & poorly organized clusters of thunderstorms.
However, I am keeping a close eye on the far Southwest Gulf of Mexico - the Bay of Campeche. A disturbance has been producing persistent thunderstorms that will be emerging over the warm & early season-favored area east of Mexico & south of Texas. Strong upper level high pressure - a mainstay of a good part of the spring - will keep the disturbance on a W/NW track toward Mexico. It's possibly a tropical depression could form prior to landfall within a few days. The system will stay well south of Texas & there will be no impacts on Jacksonville or any of Florida.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin.....
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
2019 name..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May. Next name on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storm are retired (Florence & Michael last year):
Seasonal forecasts from NOAA & Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University:
Graph below courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach - U.S. - landfalling U.S. hurricnes by month strongly favoring August, September & October: