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Hurricanes
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical disturbance near the Bahamas to move near Fl. over weekend
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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical disturbance near the Bahamas to move near Fl. over weekend

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical disturbance near the Bahamas to move near Fl. over weekend

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical disturbance near the Bahamas to move near Fl. over weekend

The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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WATCH "Surviving the Storm"

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RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

The Atlantic Basin remains generally active.....

Beginning close to home - over & near the SE Bahamas  - a tropical wave is moving slowly west/northwest . Thought not in a favorable area for much development for the moment - a good deal of shear out of the west & southwest at 30-40 mph - the wave will find a more favorable environment near Fl. & over the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend into early next week.  For the hard hit Bahamas, this wave will bring some heavy rain & - at times - gusty winds.  Heavy rain & storms will increase for the Florida Peninsula Friday through the weekend.  

Exactly what this wave will become is a bit problematic.  Overall conditions look favorable for organization over the weekend.  Proximity to land + a generally disorganized wave initially may hamper development.  But we'll need to watch for a "sweet spot" that could result in fairly fast organization &, therefore, strengthening.  Anyone along the Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Mobile as well as all of Florida should stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  The European forecast model shows the wave just off the west coast of Fl. headed into the Panhandle... the GFS is a little farther west then into the Central Gulf Coast... the UKMET is farther east near the east coast of Florida & a little stronger.

At the very least I'm anticipating heavy rain at times Friday through Sunday/Monday for most of Florida & the North Central / Northeast Gulf of Mexico.

5-day rainfall forecasts from the European & GFS respectively:

Thanks to Dorian, sea surface temps. have dropped noticeably from the Northern Bahamas extending northward for hundreds of miles.  Upwelling like this can last for at least a week depending on weather & wind conditions.  Otherwise.... sea surface temps. remain generally above avg. over the SW Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico.

It's the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. On or near Sept. 10th, there is on avg. at least 1 named storm over the Atlantic 75% of the time... & two or more named storms 50% of the time.  Tropical storm "Gabrielle" was over the N. Atlantic on the morning of the 10th but became extratropical later in the day as the NHC issued their last advisory.

Phil Klotzbach - September landfalling hurricanes:

 

There are a couple of active tropical waves over the Central & East Atlantic with long term potential with the big question mark.  It looks like the wave will remain rather weak which would allow the trade winds to steer a more shallow disturbance more west (vs. north).  Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & "cipher".  Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on any development not to mention the location.

'94-L' spaghetti plots:

 

 

An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season.

2019 names..... "Humberto" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

 

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida:

While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

 

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  • A federal judge sentenced actress Felicity Huffman to 14 days in prison on Friday after she admitted earlier this year to paying an admissions consultant to falsify her eldest daughter's college entrance exam. >> Read more trending news  Huffman, 56, pleaded guilty in May to conspiracy to commit mail fraud and honest services mail fraud. Prosecutors said she paid admissions consultant William 'Rick' Singer $15,000, which she disguised as a charitable donation, to rig her daughter's SAT score. Authorities said her daughter was unaware of the arrangement. Update 3:55 p.m. EDT Sept. 13: Prosecutors said Huffman has been ordered to self-report to a Bureau of Prisons facility Oct. 25 to begin her 14-day prison sentence. The facility was not immediately chosen. Her attorney asked U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani to allow her to report to the facility in Dublin, California, which is closest to her home, WFXT reported. Update 3:35 p.m. EDT Sept. 13: U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani sentenced Huffman to serve 14 days in jail and 250 hours of community service after she pleaded guilty earlier this year to charges leveled at her as part of a probe into a nationwide college admissions bribery scheme. In a statement read Friday in court, Huffman apologized to college officials and other students who were affected by her decision to participate in the bribery scheme. She said she felt ashamed of her choice. Prosecutors said prison time would deter others from committing similar crimes and noted that Huffman's reputation would likely recover. Prosecutors said she signed a movie deal with Netflix while awaiting sentencing, according to WFXT. Attorneys for Huffman argued against jail time for the 'Desperate Housewives' actress, pointing to her remorse and her lack of a previous criminal record, among other factors. Update 2:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 13: Huffman appeared in a courtroom on the third floor of the federal courthouse in Boston on Friday for a sentencing hearing. Her husband, actor William H. Macy, was also in the courthouse, according to WFXT. He has not been charged as part of the case. Update 2 p.m. EDT Sept. 13: Huffman arrived at the federal courthouse in Boston on Friday afternoon ahead of her scheduled sentencing hearing. Original report: Prosecutors have asked U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani to sentence the 'Desperate Housewives' actress to one month in prison and supervised release, citing her deliberate and repeated deception of her daughter's high school, the college entrance exam system and college administrators. They have also asked she be fined $20,000. 'Her efforts weren't driven by need or desperation, but by a sense of entitlement, or at least moral cluelessness, facilitated by wealth and insularity,' prosecutors said last week in a sentencing memo filed in court. Authorities said Huffman coordinated with Singer to convince test administrators to give her daughter extended time to take the SAT in 2017, citing a 'learning difference.' She arranged to have her daughter take the test at a center affiliated with Singer, where her answers were altered to boost her score by about 400 points, prosecutors said. 'She could buy her daughter every conceivable legitimate advantage, introduce her to any number of useful personal connections, and give her a profound leg up on the competition simply because she would be applying to college as the daughter of a movie star,' prosecutors said in the sentencing memo. 'But Huffman opted instead to use her daughter's legitimate learning differences in service of a fraud on the system, one that Huffman knew, by definition, would harm some other student who would be denied admission because Huffman's daughter was admitted in his or her place, under false pretenses.' Attorneys for Huffman have asked Talwani to sentence her to one year of probation, 250 hours of community service and a $20,000 fine, calling the incident out of character and noting her remorse for her part in the admissions scheme. 'In my desperation to be a good mother I talked myself into believing that all I was doing was giving my daughter a fair shot,' Huffman wrote in a letter to the court filed last week. 'I honestly didn't and don't care about my daughter going to a prestigious college. I just wanted to give her a shot at being considered for a program where her acting talent would be the deciding factor. That sounds hollow now, but, in my mind, I knew that her success or failure in theater or film wouldn't depend on her math skills. I didn't want my daughter to be prevented from getting a shot at auditioning doing what she loves because she can't do math.' Huffman is scheduled to appear Friday afternoon in the federal courthouse in Boston. Huffman was one of more than 50 people, including 34 parents, to be charged earlier this year with participating in the large-scale admissions scheme. Prosecutors said the parents involved paid Singer to bribe college coaches and rig test scores to get their children into elite universities. The scandal also led to the arrests of “Full House” actress Lori Loughlin and her husband, fashion designer Mossimo Giannulli, both of whom are fighting the charges. The amount Huffman paid is relatively low compared to other bribes alleged in the scheme. Some parents are accused of paying up to $500,000 to get their children into elite schools by having them labeled as recruited athletes for sports they didn't even play. Authorities say it's the biggest college admissions case ever prosecuted by the Justice Department, with a total of 51 people charged. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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