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** LOCAL - JACKSONVILLE/NE FL./SE GA. IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS THROUGH MONDAY: NOTHING DIRECTLY. EASTERLY SWELLS ARE ARRIVING AT OUR BEACHES CONTRIBUTING TO DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS... BETA STAYS TO THE WEST (FOR THE TIME BEING)

TROPICS:

(1) Tropical disturbance (90-L) over the Western Gulf of Mexico was upgraded Thu. evening to tropical depression #22. Gradual & then to “Beta” late Fri. (Wilfred, E. Atlantic... “Alpha” NE Atlantic beat it to the punch!). Where exactly Beta ends up going is a really good question. First & foremost, the system should more or less sit & spin over the far Western Gulf through at least the weekend. Shear out of the southwest is clearly keeping the storm disorganized with a tilt to the northeast & virtually all of the heavy convection over the northern & eastern quadrants. This shear is forecast to slowly relax through Monday which should allow for gradual alignment of the low & mid level center & then eventual strengthening.

The GFS model has consolidated on a tropical cyclone drifting west/northwest & getting to the Texas coast before becoming stationary or very slowly moving north/northeast along the coast. The European shows the low pressure generally moving steadily west while strengthening. The Euro model has trended a bit more north & west with a stronger impact on Texas. It’s worth noting the Euro model has had a west bias this season on many tropical cyclones. The UKMET stalls the storm over the Western Gulf before a slow north/northwest movement that would strongly threaten the Texas coast then moves the storm east/northeast along the coast all the way to Louisiana. We may be in for kind of ricochet off the Texas coast “bouncing” the storm a little northeast over the far Northwest Gulf. All in all, the model trend has been north & west into Texas but is still far from certain. We’re right on the crossover between when Western Gulf tropical cyclones usually move west (June/July/Aug./early Sept.) vs. moving north or east (later Sept./Oct./Nov.).

So the key will be whether or not weak troughing to the north can have any influence on Beta. A weak upper level ridge of high pressure - a “Beta blocker” :) - got that one from NHC forecaster Jack Beven’s Fri. discussion - will be developing through the weekend which should help steer the system more to the west. The ridge seemingly breaks down early next week as a weak trough of low pressure moves across the U.S. to the north which would allow for a more northward or even northeast motion. In any case, there’s a risk - again! - to the Gulf Coast states, especially Western Gulf Coast. Still very early on this one, but Beta will be uncomfortably close to land for a number of days in a row while likely intensifying. By early next week a weakening front moving into the Gulf may play a role in where Beta goes. There may also be some dry air pulled into the circulation at times not to mention proximity to land - all factors that will help contribute to how strong (or weak) the tropical cyclone becomes &/or fluctuations in intensity.

AND it’s hard to ignore the more north & east position of the center the last couple days. The center is likely to jump around & re-position itself according to bursts of convection until & unless a core develops & the strong convection manages to more or less wrap itself around the center.

Right now water looks to be the big problem for coastal areas of Texas & Louisiana with the potential for than a foot of rain + storm surge.

(2) Depression #20 formed Sat. from a westbound African tropical wave & was upgraded to “Teddy” early Mon., Sept. 14th... to a hurricane early Wed. & became a “major” (Cat. 3+) hurricane Thu. reaching a Cat. 4 by late Thu. This is the fastest to the 20th storm breaking the record of an unnamed tropical storm Oct. 4, 2005. Indications are that the Bermuda High to the north will shift more to the east & north allowing for a turn to the north over the Western Atlantic. This will be a clear miss for the Antilles.... & stays far to the east of the U.S. - reaches Jacksonville’s latitude hundreds of miles away late Sun./Sunday night - but will maintain easterly swells to the U.S. east coast - & a heightened rip current risk - into at least the upcoming weekend/early next week as Teddy will be a large & strong hurricane. There is expected to be east of Bermuda by Monday - the 2nd hurricane (Paulette Mon., the 14th) near the island within a week.... & to Nova Scotia & Newfoundland by the middle of next week as Teddy bends back to the northwest over the NW Atlantic while transitioning to a large/powerful post-tropical ocean storm.

(3) Tropical storm “Wilfred” formed over the Eastern Atlantic from a strong tropical wave that’s looked impressive for a couple of days. Wilfred seems to already be struggling against strong shear which should eventually cause the storm to degenerate into an open wave over the Central Atlantic by early next week. Wilfred breaks the record for the fastest to the 21st named storm - “Vincent” on Oct. 8, 2005 (not the same letter because there was unnamed tropical cyclone in ’05 prior ‘V’ & ‘W’ being used). Wilma, by the way, developed in mid Oct., 05, so we’re a month ahead of 2005 at this point when it comes to use of the Greek alphabet.

(5) There is another significant tropical wave just behind Wilfred & has the potential to develop at a little lower latitude while moving west/northwest.

(6) A stationary front will hang over the SW Atlantic into the Eastern Gulf much of next week. We’ll need to watch for any persistent clusters of t’storms/developing low pressure that might try to “go” tropical. Nothing indicated at the moment.

(7) The NHC decided Fri. afternoon to upgrade low pressure over the far NE Atlantic to subtropical “Alpha” which then moved into Portugal a few hours later & will now weaken.

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively (major wave action at Fl./Ga. beaches through early next week due to persistent brisk onshore flow (high pressure to the north) combined with easterly swells from distant Teddy:

September is usually the most active month of the hurricane season:



Saharan dust:

2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it will be on to the Greek alphabet now. “Gamma” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05)

East Atlantic:


Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: