Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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*** SALLY WILL “THROW” A FEW BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS & STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON***

For Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. impacts from Sally - mainly fringe effects:

* a few bands of heavy rain/t’storms through early Thu. evening

* isolated tornado/funnel cloud or two possible

* additional rainfall of 0.30-0.75″ with a few 1″ amounts before drier air movies in Thu. night

* breezy winds out of the south then southwest through Thu. with gusts up to 20-30 mph, locally stronger just ahead & in shower/t’storm bands

* rough seas/surf at area beaches building to at least 5-8 foot breakers over the weekend

* higher than avg. tides - combination of Teddy to the east... Sally to the north/NW... the new moon phase Thu.... then strong onshore (out of the NE) flow by the weekend. Local tide tables * here *.

TROPICS:

(1) an area of ‘disturbed’ weather (showers & storms) that developed over the Bahamas late last week was upgraded to tropical depression #19 Fri. making landfall on the southeast coast of Fl. not far from Miami about 2am EDT Sat. then re-emerged over the warm Gulf by midday Sat. then quickly became tropical storm “Sally” Sat. afternoon. After holding steady state through early Mon., Sally strengthened into a hurricane late Mon. morning while wobbling some to the north followed by a slow approach to the Gulf Coast making landfall about 7am EDT Wed., the 16th at Gulf Shores, Alabama near the Alabama/Florida border. Sally is the 8th named storm to make a U.S. landfall this season beating the record - by Sept. 16th - of 7 in 1916. 2004 was the last time the U.S. had four hurricane landfalls (Charley, Frances, Gaston & Ivan) by Sept. 16th. In fact, Cat. 3 hurricane Ivan in ’04 made landfall very near the spot that Sally came ashore. Like most of the names this season... this is the fastest to 'S’ beating the record of “Stan” Oct. 2, 2005.

Despite moderate shear & proximity to land, Sally managed a strengthening phase Tue. night a little before landfall near the “Flora-Bama” between Mobile & Pensacola as a Cat. 2 hurricane. While winds were strong, it’s the water (rain & storm surge) that was most devastating with Sally.

The last NHC advisory was issued early Thu. & Sally’s remnant low will move offshore east of the Carolina’s by later Fri./Fri. night. while merging with a cold front

A few heavy rain bands & t’storms will continue across Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. through the day Thursday. These bands will be capable of producing brief gusty winds, heavy rain & an isolated tornado or two. The highest tornado risk will be from Lake City to Waycross, Nahunta & Brunswick.

(2) An area of showers & t’storms/"disturbed" weather (90-L) continues over the Western Gulf of Mexico. Some gradual development of this newly formed low pressure area seems likely. Where exactly the storm ends up going is a good question. The GFS seemingly breaks off a piece of low pressure & sends it quickly northeast then lags the rest over the Western Gulf with an eventual slow drift into Mexico. The European shows the low pressure generally just meandering over the Western Gulf with a slow drift to the west while strengthening. This process takes long enough that it’s eventually picked up by a trough of low pressure swinging eastward across the Lower 48 next week which then takes the storm across the far Northern Gulf through mid to late week. The UKMET stalls the storm over the far Western Gulf.

So the key will be whether or not weak troughing to the north can have any influence on 90-L. If so, there’s a risk - again! - to the Gulf Coast states. If not, the low is most likely to end up hanging near Mexico or the far SE Texas coast. We’ll need to keep an eye on this situation.

(3) Depression #20 formed Sat. from a westbound African tropical wave & was upgraded to “Teddy” early Mon. & to a hurricane early Wed. This is the fastest to the 20th storm breaking the record of an unnamed tropical storm Oct. 4, 2005. Indications are that the Bermuda High to the north will shift more to the east & north allowing for a turn to the north over the Western Atlantic. This will be a clear miss for the Antilles.... & stays far to the east of the U.S. but will maintain easterly swells to the U.S. east coast into at least the upcoming weekend/early next week as Teddy will be a large & strong hurricane. There appears to be an increasing threat to Bermuda early next week.

(4) Another African tropical wave was upgraded just off the coast of Africa early Mon. to tropical depression #21 & a few hours later to “Vicky”. This is the fastest to the 20th named storm beating the previous record of Tammy on Oct. 5, 2005 (which made landfall in Duval Co. as a weak tropical storm. There was a “no name” storm before Tammy in ’05 which is why it was a ‘T’ name as the 20th named storm vs. a ‘V’ storm this year). Vicky is forecast to weaken & then dissipate over the next couple days while slowly moving west/southwest.

A couple of other African tropical waves are or will move west over the Eastern Atlantic & have at least some potential for development.

(6) There some indications of possible low pressure developing next week to the east of Florida over the SW Atlantic along what will probably be a stationary front. We’ll need to watch this area for some tropical development.

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

September is usually the most active month of the hurricane season:



Saharan dust:

2020 names..... “Wilfred” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list. Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list have never been used with only 1 remaining “Alpha” is the first name of the Greek alphabet. It’ll be the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05)

East Atlantic:


Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: