Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking... & realize the cone is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage therefore do not become fixated on the center of a tropical system.

No direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. as weak & generally disorganized low pressure continues northeast of Jacksonville & east of the Carolina’s with some uptick in the showers & t’storms though overall organization remains poor. The low will meander just off the coast of the Carolina’s through the weekend with bit of a move west/northwest. Proximity to the Gulf Stream combined with some help from an upper level trough could allow for some strengthening into what would most likely be a subtropical system through this weekend. Some gusty winds & heavy rain can be expected for the coastal areas & Outer Banks of N. Carolina & Northeast S.C. through Sunday night. Eventually the low should merge with a frontal system early next week & move away from the coast.

We’ll also need to monitor parts of the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico in the longer range, but there’s nothing “cooking” for the moment.

An unfavorable MJO phase over the Atlantic Basin is slowly changing/evolving. There has been a lot of “sinking” (brown lines) air over the Atlantic Basin which doesn’t usually favor a good deal of tropical development (there can be exceptions!). *But* the rising air (green lines) will likely overspread the Atlantic as we move through Oct. leading to a potentially active 2nd to the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season. During this evolution, we’ll need to monitor the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic where we’re already getting some occasional - albeit inconsistent - hints of tropical development from long range models. And we may be seeing a hint over the E. Pacific of this “pulse” with a tropical cyclone likely develop soon.

Ocean temps. remain “fit” to help maintain tropical cyclones.

Sea surface temps. across the Atlantic are now near to above avg. across much of the basin (2nd image below) & - even more importantly - deep oceanic heat content (which helped “feed” Ida & Sam) is impressive & the “equivalent oceanic heat content” - namely depth averaged temperature in the upper 300 m (~984 feet) - is even more impressive all the way from Africa to the Gulf of Mexico. Such an ocean water temp. pattern is conducive to long track deep tropical Atlantic tropical cyclones & can lead to a more favored regime for rapid intensification cycles. From an AMS research paper in ‘08 Mainelli, DeMaria, Shay, Goni: “Results show that for a large sample of Atlantic storms, the OHC variations have a small but positive impact on the intensity forecasts. However, for intense storms, the effect of the OHC is much more significant, suggestive of its importance on rapid intensification. The OHC input improved the average intensity errors of the SHIPS forecasts by up to 5% for all cases from the category 5 storms, and up to 20% for individual storms, with the maximum improvement for the 72–96-h forecasts. The statistical results obtained indicate that the OHC only becomes important when it has values much larger than that required to support a tropical cyclone.” More recent research continues to indicate similar correlations.


Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop if everything else happens to be favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones.

2021 names..... “Wanda” is the next & last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning this year that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase across the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic & has become pretty impressive from the Central/NW Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The East Pacific:

West Pacific IR satellite:

Global tropical activity:



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