Talking the Tropics With Mike: Rough surf from far away Larry reaches U.S. beaches...

Weak Gulf tropical disturbance headed to the Gulf Coast & Florida

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Local - Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga. - impacts from tropical disturbance ‘91-L’ over the Gulf of Mexico:

* some heavier rain in the form of showers & scattered t’storms through Thu. with the potential for 1-3″ of rain, locally 4″+

* a few stronger storms that may produce gusty winds & a very isolated waterspout or tornado

* the system will be east of the area by Thu. night

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking... & realize the cone is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage therefore do not become fixated on the center of a tropical system.

“Ida” summary in the “Buresh Blog” * here *.

Gulf tropical disturbance: there continue to be a tropical disturbance over the Central & Southern Gulf with an increase in - albeit disorganized - t’storms the last 24 hours or so. This will be something to keep a close eye on but any development should be slow to occur, if at all. The GFS & European models have generally come into decent agreement on a weak low pressure area - possibly only a trough of low pressure - moving east/northeast across the Northern Gulf Wed. into Thu. & offshore east of Georgia & northeast of Jacksonville by late Thu. The Euro has a surface low that’s a little more organized but the model has had a tendency to jump around on this disturbance. At this point - whether or not there’s much true development - & the disturbance *could* become a depression while approaching the Gulf Coast - it would appear the primary impacts will be an uptick in showers & t’storms near & along the Gulf Coast as far east Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. Wed./Thu.

There’s some chance/opportunity - it would appear - for more significant development once over the Western Atlantic by the weekend but by then the system is moving away from Jacksonville.

Some forecast models have no disturbance developing so some of the spaghetti plots for ‘91-L’ show limited output:

Larry: remains over the Central Atlantic Basin continues be large & powerful hurricane Larry, but the good (great!) news is that the storm will be far from any land areas with the exception of Bermuda. A second area to keep track of will be over the Central & Northern Gulf of Mexico.

First things first: “Larry” was upgraded last Wed. becoming a hurricane early Thu. & became a Cat. 3 Fri. evening - the 3rd “major” hurricane of the season. 1969, 2004 & 2005 were the only other seasons since the mid 1960s to have as many as three Cat. 3+ hurricanes by Sept. 3rd.

The steering flow remains locked in & stable thanks to a displaced - to the northeast - Bermuda High. Larry will get uncomfortably close to Bermuda by Thu. with at least some impact likely as Larry goes just east of the island.

And despite the hurricane’s considerable distance from any mainland, Larry will be large enough/strong enough to push an easterly swell to the Caribbean & east coast of the U.S. enhancing the rip current risk through much of this week. The eye of the hurricane will reach Jacksonville’s latitude - about 30 degrees N - by Wed./Wed.night but 1,000+ miles to the east.

There should be some cycling & recycling with fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles & nearby dry air.

Larry is the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic season... the 4th just since Aug. 18th!.... & the first time three Atlantic Basin hurricanes have formed within the period from Aug. 18th to Sept. 2nd.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach reports only twelve or more tropical storms have occurred within the Atlantic Basin by Sept. 1st 5 times: 1995, 2005, 2011, 2012 & 2020. (Of course, some credit to far better “detecting” means since the advent of satellite photos in the 1960s).

For right now, the Bermuda High across the Atlantic is displaced to the east & northeast through at least the couple weeks or so of Sept. - important for any potential long track tropical systems coming out of the deep tropics.

The peak of the hurricane season (Sept. 10) is fast approaching & ocean temps. remain “fit” to help maintain tropical cyclones.

Sea surface temps. across the Atlantic are now near to above avg. across much of the basin (2nd image below) & - even more importantly - deep oceanic heat content (which helped “feed” Ida) is impressive & the “equivalent oceanic heat content” - namely depth averaged temperature in the upper 300 m (~984 feet) - is even more impressive all the way from Africa to the Gulf of Mexico. Such an ocean water temp. pattern is conducive to long track deep tropical Atlantic tropical cyclones & can lead to a more favored regime for rapid intensification cycles. From an AMS research paper in ‘08 Mainelli, DeMaria, Shay, Goni: “Results show that for a large sample of Atlantic storms, the OHC variations have a small but positive impact on the intensity forecasts. However, for intense storms, the effect of the OHC is much more significant, suggestive of its importance on rapid intensification. The OHC input improved the average intensity errors of the SHIPS forecasts by up to 5% for all cases from the category 5 storms, and up to 20% for individual storms, with the maximum improvement for the 72–96-h forecasts. The statistical results obtained indicate that the OHC only becomes important when it has values much larger than that required to support a tropical cyclone.” More recent research continues to indicate similar correlations.

September is historically the prime month for tropical cyclones across the Atlantic Basin:

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop if everything else happens to be favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones.

2021 names..... “Mindy” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase across the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic & has become pretty impressive from the Central/NW Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The East Pacific:

West Pacific IR satellite:

Typhoon “Chanthu” headed near & south of Taiwan over the weekend:

Global tropical activity:

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