Talking the Tropics With Mike: Sally strengthens upon approach to the Alabama/Florida border

Rainfall of 1-2 feet to as much as 30″+ from I-10 to the coast!

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*** SALLY WILL NOT HAVE DIRECT IMPACTS ON JACKSONVILLE/NE FL./SE GA. THROUGH WED. MORNING BUT MAY INTENSIFY SHOWERS & STORMS LATER WED. INTO THU./EARLY FRI. ***

So for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. impacts from Sally:

* a few bands of heavy rain/t’storms Wed. afternoon through Thu.

* isolated tornado or two, especially west through north of Jacksonville

* rainfall potential of 1-2″... heavier SE Ga.

* breezy winds swinging to out of the south then southwest through Thu. with gusts up to 25-30 mph

* rough seas/surf

* higher than avg. high tides - combination of Paulette & Teddy to the east... Sally to the west... the new moon phase Thu.

TROPICS:

(1) an area of ‘disturbed’ weather (showers & storms) that developed over the Bahamas late last week was upgraded to tropical depression #19 Fri. making landfall on the southeast coast of Fl. not far from Miami about 2am EDT Sat. then re-emerged over the warm Gulf by midday Sat. then quickly became tropical storm “Sally” Sat. afternoon. After holding steady state through early Mon., Sally strengthened into a hurricane late Mon. morning & has been slowly moving northwest while wobbling some to the north. Like most of the names this season... this is the fastest to 'S’ beating the record of “Stan” Oct. 2, 2005. Despite moderate shear & proximity to land, Sally went through a strengthening phase Tue. night a little before the projected landfall near the “Flora-Bama” between Mobile & Pensacola. This will spare New Orleans the heaviest rain while inundating the Mississippi & especially Alabama & Fl. Panhandle coasts.

Since Sally has been stronger & more organized since Sunday, the models have been better on their initialization. Special N.W.S. balloon soundings - 4 a day vs. the normal 2 per day - will be released for at least the next several days across the Gulf Coast & Southeast U.S. in an attempt to have better analysis data for the models which would then translate into better output (forecasts). The upper level ridge has become “softer” with westerlies - albeit rather weak - extending south to near the Gulf Coast which appears to be why models have to continue to correct to the east. After a what looks to be a gradual (slow moving) landfall, there will be a slow turn to the northeast then east/northeast resulting in very heavy rainfall on the order of at least 1-2 feet, locally 30″+ from near Pascagoula to Mobile, Pensacola & Panama City! [the Fl. record for a tropical cyclone is 45.2″]. Rainfall will still be heavy but not as extreme inland over Alabama, Georgia & S. Carolina as Sally weakens & starts to move faster. Sally’s remnant low will then move offshore east of the Carolina’s by later Fri./early Sat. There might be an attempt at restrengthening once back over water but by then the system will be moving east & away from the U.S. Until Sally gets to at least parallel (east) of New Orleans, there will still be plenty of sea water pushed into Lake Pontchartrain & nearby waterways, canals & tributaries but rainfall does not look to be excessive for New Orleans & the winds will swing to out of the northwest Wed.

As Sally moves more to the east & into Ga. late Wed. - Thursday, a few heavy rain bands & t’storms should develop across Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. These bands will be capable of producing brief gusty winds, heavy rain & an isolated tornado or two. The highest tornado risk will be from Lake City to Waycross, Nahunta & Brunswick.

Everyone along the Gulf Coast - especially from the Fl. to Louisiana - needs to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.

(2) Tropical depression #17 formed over the Eastern Atlantic last Sunday & was upgraded to tropical storm “Paulette” Mon., Sept. 7th The fastest ever to ’P’ easily beating the old record of Philippe Sept. 17, 2005. The forecast is for Paulette to to turn sharply to the northeast & accelerate this week before slowing & turning sharply southeast before becoming a remnant low. Paulette will be an “ocean storm” staying well east of the U.S. *but* moved over Bermuda early Mon. with the entire island enveloped by the eye near 5am EDT.

Though far to the east, easterly swells & an increasing rip current risk affect Florida & much of the Eastern U.S. coast this week even though Paulette will be moving further out to sea.

(3) Depression #20 formed Sat. from a westbound African tropical wave & was upgraded to “Teddy” early Mon. This is the fastest to the 20th storm breaking the record of an unnamed tropical storm Oct. 4, 2005. Indications are that the Bermuda High to the north will shift more to the east & north allowing for a turn to the north over the Western Atlantic. This will be a clear miss for the Antilles.... & likely stays far to the east of the U.S. but will maintain easterly swells to the U.S. east coast into at least the upcoming weekend/early next week.

(4) Tropical depression #18 was upgraded just off the coast of Africa early Mon. then to tropical storm “Rene” Mon. afternoon before a weakening trend Tue. night followed by another strengthening trend Thu. Rene dissipated late Mon & the last advisory has been issued by the NHC.

(5) Another African tropical wave was upgraded just off the coast of Africa early Mon. to tropical depression #21 & a few hours later to “Vicky”. This is the fastest to the 20th named storm beating the previous record of Tammy on Oct. 5, 2005 (which made landfall in Duval Co. as a weak tropical storm. There was a “no name” storm before Tammy in ’05 which is why it was a 'T' name as the 20th named storm vs. a 'V' storm this year). Vicky is forecast to weaken & then dissipate over the next couple days.

Yet another African tropical wave will move off the coast later this week with the potential for development.

(6) A lowering of pressures has been indicated by forecast models over the Western Gulf of Mexico into next week. Low pressure may eventually develop... or there could be some interaction with other waves/disturbances. If so, it’s an area to keep an eye on for possible tropical development.

(7) There some indications of possible low pressure developing next week to the east of Florida along what will probably be a stationary front. We’ll need to watch this area for some tropical development.

September is usually the most active month of the hurricane season:



Saharan dust:

2020 names..... “Wilfred” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list. Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list have never been used with only 2 remaining (the Greek alphabet will be used if necessary)....

East Atlantic:


Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity:

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