Talking the Tropics With Mike: Texas landfall as Nicholas slowly moves inland

Flooding for SE Texas, Louisiana

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking... & realize the cone is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage therefore do not become fixated on the center of a tropical system.

The peak of the hurricane season was Sept. 10th with a mini peak in mid Oct.:

Areas to watch:

(1) Nicholas - moving over far SE Texas

(2) tropical waves headed west off the coast of Africa

(3) possible tropical development over the SW or W Atlantic over the next few days.

(1) A tropical wave near & over Central America & the Yucatan Peninsula moved over the SW Gulf of Mexico Sun. morning & was upgraded to “Nicholas” becoming a hurricane late Mon. evening upon approach to the Central Texas Gulf Coast followed by quickly by a landfall at 1:30 AM EDT on the eastern part of the Matagorda Peninsula, about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Sargent Beach, Texas. Shear has remained moderate to strong but was also roughly aligned with the forward movement of Nicholas, so the storm still managed to gradually intensify with many bursts of intense convection. After the landfall on the Central Southeast coast of Texas west/southwest of Galveston, Nicholas will slow dumping very heavy rain over far SE Texas eastward through much of Louisiana. Severe flooding is a concern along & to the east of the storm’s track, but it looks like the extreme rainfall will stay south & east of most of metropolitan Houston.

There will be no impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.

Nicholas is the 14th named storm of this busy hurricane season. From Dr. Phil Klotzbach: “Only 4 other years in satellite era (1966 onwards) have had 14+ named storms by 12 September: 2005, 2011, 2012, 2020″.

(2) Multiple tropical waves are marching west off the coast of Africa as one would expect near the peak of the season. A wave that moved off the coast of Africa Mon. night will move west this week with potential to become a tropical storm. Long range models have a tendency to dampen out this system in the long range as it near the NE Caribbean or SW Atlantic though some earlier model cycles showed more westward movement. Strong shear + some dry air will probably play a role in the long range intensity. Another strong wave with the potential for some development will move west off of Africa by late in the week.

(3) And forecast models continue to indicate *possible* tropical “activity” over or near the Western or SW Atlantic later this week. It looks like this development is being helped by an old tropical wave that moved off Africa days ago combined with an upper low. Forecast models have generally trended north on this disturbance to the east of the Carolina’s (vs. just east of Fl.) though the low may start to consolidate east of Fl. but 200+ miles away from the coast while moving N/NW. The Outer Banks of N. Carolina could still be grazed by this system though the general trend has been more east during the past 1-2 days. Something to keep a close eye on.

Ocean temps. remain “fit” to help maintain tropical cyclones.

Sea surface temps. across the Atlantic are now near to above avg. across much of the basin (2nd image below) & - even more importantly - deep oceanic heat content (which helped “feed” Ida) is impressive & the “equivalent oceanic heat content” - namely depth averaged temperature in the upper 300 m (~984 feet) - is even more impressive all the way from Africa to the Gulf of Mexico. Such an ocean water temp. pattern is conducive to long track deep tropical Atlantic tropical cyclones & can lead to a more favored regime for rapid intensification cycles. From an AMS research paper in ‘08 Mainelli, DeMaria, Shay, Goni: “Results show that for a large sample of Atlantic storms, the OHC variations have a small but positive impact on the intensity forecasts. However, for intense storms, the effect of the OHC is much more significant, suggestive of its importance on rapid intensification. The OHC input improved the average intensity errors of the SHIPS forecasts by up to 5% for all cases from the category 5 storms, and up to 20% for individual storms, with the maximum improvement for the 72–96-h forecasts. The statistical results obtained indicate that the OHC only becomes important when it has values much larger than that required to support a tropical cyclone.” More recent research continues to indicate similar correlations.

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop if everything else happens to be favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones.

2021 names..... “Odette” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase across the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic & has become pretty impressive from the Central/NW Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The East Pacific:

West Pacific IR satellite:

Global tropical activity:

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