Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak wave east of the Caribbean

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A trough of low pressure persists from the Western Atlantic southwest through North Central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Clusters of t’storms are developing along this trough & moving E/NE. While not evident in the modeling at this time, we’ll need to watch for any surface low pressure that might try to develop along the trough in association with any of the convective clusters.

A slow moving cold front will reinforce this surface trough through the end of the week into the weekend. Some models - at times - are showing low pressure developing near & just off the Carolina coast. Ultimately such a low would be steered to the northeast away from the U.S.

Otherwise.... tropical waves continue to move west across the Central & Eastern Atlantic. No long term development is expected, but these waves continue to be unusually active in the deep tropics for so early in the season.

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season:

2021 names..... “Danny” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing across the SE Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

Global tropical activity:

Cox Media Group