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The Buresh Blog

  • Talking the Tropics With Mike' - updated every day during the hurricane season (through Nov. 30th).... Speaking of the tropics.... the first 10 days or so of Oct. have become rather notorious in recent years.  Hurricane Joaquin in 2015 over the SW Atlantic which contributed to the sinking of the cargo ship El Faro... hurricane Matthew in 2016 which hammered our local NE Fl./SE Ga. coast.... & hurricane Michael last year - 2018 - the most powerful hurricane to ever hit the Fl. Panhandle. Joaquin track: Matthew track: Michael track: Well... September was dry which was continuing into the first week of Oct. then came 'Rainy Days & Monday's' on Oct. 7th.  A tremendous soaker from the I-95 corridor to the coast with amounts approaching a half foot at some of the beaches.  While inland areas have been the driest & again missed out on the heaviest rain, beneficial rains occurred over virtually the entire viewing area except for inland SE Ga.  The combination of a weak stalled front, winds off the Atlantic, an upper level disturbance & warm/humid air lifting across the area (isentropic lift) set up bands of heavy rain virtually all day long. Rainfall as provided by the Jax N.W.S. for the month of September: FL   JASPER                                0.48 FL   BEAUCLERC                             2.74 FL   JACKSONVILLE BEACH                    4.88  FL   LAKE CITY                     0.26                 FL   LAKE CITY 2 E                    0.71       FL   GLEN ST MARY 1 W                0.68                   FL   CRESCENT CITY                         2.64             FL   GAINESVILLE RGNL AP             0.93          FL   HASTINGS 4NE              3.75                                           FL   OCALA                    2.01                                                FL   WHITE SPRINGS 7N               0.45            FL   JACKSONVILLE CRAIG MUNI AP      3.05      FL   JACKSONVILLE INTL AP        2.35              FL   JACKSONVILLE NAS          3.19              FL   FEDERAL POINT                2.66                                       FL   BUNNELL                 5.99                            FL   PALM COAST                            6.19 FL   NORTHEAST PALM COAST                  7.56  FL   NORTH PALM COAST                      7.20  FL   WEST PALM COAST                       7.29 FL   WEST PALM BEACH              7.29             FL   WEST CENTRAL PALM COAST               7.89  FL   FLAGLER BEACH                 4.35                     GEORGIA:              GA   ALMA BACON CO AP        0.20                                               GA   NAHUNTA 6 NE            1.70                   GA   FARGO 17 NE            0.70                                     GA   BRUNSWICK             1.39                  GA   BRUNSWICK MALCOLM MCKINNON AP       2.76 Our Oct. night skies courtesy Sky & Telescope: Oct. 17 (evening): The waning gibbous Moon rises about 2½ hours after sunset with Aldebaran 3° to 4° to its right. Oct. 21–22 (all night): The moderate Orionids meteor shower peaks in the evening. The radiant, northeast of Betelgeuse, stands high by midnight local time. However, light from the last-quarter Moon will interfere somewhat. Oct. 26 (dawn): The thinnest sliver of the almost-new Moon, Mars, and Porrima form a triangle low on the eastern horizon just before sunrise. Binoculars will help. Oct. 29 (dusk): Right after sunset, look toward the southwest to find the Moon, not quite 2 days old, and Venus less than 5° apart. Oct. 31 (dusk): The waxing crescent Moon, Jupiter, and Saturn briefly gracing the skies in the southwest after sunset.   Nov. 1 (dusk): Saturn, the waxing lunar crescent, and Jupiter form a line 22° long in the south-southwest after sunset. Nov. 3: Daylight-Saving Time ends at 2 a.m. for most of the U.S. and Canada.   Moon Phases First Quarter: October 5, 12:47 p.m. EDT Full Moon: October 13, 5:08 p.m. EDT (Full Beaver Moon; also Full Frosty Moon) Last Quarter: October 21, 8:39 a.m. EDT New Moon: October 27, 11:38 p.m. EDT AND - after 'great demand' :) ...... I am now professionally on Instagram!  Apparently this is 'the thing to do' but at least a few years late.... according to my kids & co-workers.  A shout out to Nora Clark on our Action News Jax digital team for her enthusiasm regarding this endeavor & for at least trying to get this ol' chief meteorologist up to date.  Give me a follow if you wish.
  • Two months! left in the hurricane season.  'Talking the Tropics With Mike' updated every day. We turn the calendars to Oct. with the hopes of some true fall weather (I always say you have to wait for the Greater Jacksonville Agricultural Fair &/or at least Halloween before we get sustained cooler temps.) So the averages at JIA: Low / High - 1st: 66 / 84.... 31st: 55 / 77 Rainfall: 3.93' Sunrise / Sunset: 1st - 7:20am / 7:12pm.... 31st - 7:40am / 6:40pm - lose 52 min. of daylight. Our so-called wet season is officially over (June - Sept.) & ended up drier than avg. largely thanks to a slow start in June & dry end in Sept.  JIA was a little more than a half foot below avg. for the four months but some inland areas were nearly 10' below avg. And it's been a hot year again.  As of Sept. 30th, JIA has had 96 90-degree days - well above the avg. of 82 & closing in a top 10 year (2018 is 10th with 99 90-degree days):
  • Talking the Tropics With Mike' - updated everyday throughout the hurricane season (ends Nov. 30th). Astronomical fall arrived Mon., Sept. 23rd.  But I always say we usually have to wait 'til Halloween to enjoy sustained fall weather in Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.  Our avg. high does drop 20 degrees to the mid 60s by the astronomical start of winter in Dec. The seasons are a result of the tilt of the earth.  In the Northern Hemisphere, the earth is tilted toward the sun during the summer (but farthest from the sun).... the earth is tilted away from the sun during the winter (but closest to the sun!).  The tilt is just about equal during the (autumn/spring) equinox. U.S. Forest Service tracks fall foliage * here *.  Fall foliage prediction map * here *.  Various state links on autumn color from the SE Regional Climate Center - here. Arctic sea ice reached its summer minimum in mid Sept. (18th) & was tied for the 2nd lowest at 1.6 million square miles - with 2007 & 2016 - since 'modern' record keeping began in the 1970s.  The Arctic summer temp. averaged about 7-9 degrees F above avg.  Full NASA story * here *.
  • The tropics remain active overall - daily updates: 'Talking the Tropics With Mike'.   'Velocity Potential Anomalies' show an impressive burst of 'rising air' (green lines) which often signals an active period in the tropics.  So while there will be multiple named storms across the Atlantic Basin into early Oct., ultimately the period will be perceived as active based on whether or not any storms threaten or hit land. More often then not, where tropical systems move & go will be dependent on the positioning & strength of the Bermuda high.  Far enough east or weak enough & many of the deep tropical systems will turn more north over the Atlantic - that's a best case scenario most of the time regarding any landfall threats. Meanwhile... our 'wet season' is winding down.  For the 2nd year in a row, Sept. has been drier than avg.  We could use some rain - especially inland where the past few weeks have particularly dry. September/early Oct. night skies (courtesy 'Sky & Telescope'): Sep. 20 (dawn): Look high in the south to see the waning gibbous Moon in the Hyades, not far right of Aldebaran. Sep. 23 (morning): The Moon is in Gemini and forms a triangle with Castor and Pollux ('the Twins'). Sep. 23: Autumn begins in the Northern Hemisphere at the equinox, 3:50 a.m. EDT. Sep. 24 (morning): The waning crescent Moon is to the right of the Beehive Cluster (M44) in Cancer. Sep. 26 (dawn): The thin sliver of the Moon is just 3 left of Regulus in Leo. Sep. 27 (dusk): Look for Venus very low in the west about 30 minutes after sunset.   Oct. 3 (dusk): The waxing crescent Moon and Jupiter are 1 apart after sunset, with Antares 10 to their lower right. Oct. 4 (dusk): Saturn, the Moon, Jupiter, and Antares extend along a 34 -line stretching from south to southwest. Oct. 5 (dusk): The first-quarter Moon and Saturn hover 2 apart just left of the Teapot in Sagittarius.   Moon Phases Full Moon: September 14, 12:33 a.m. EDT (Full Harvest Moon) Last Quarter: September 21, 10:41 p.m. EDT New Moon: September 28, 2:26 p.m. EDT Once in a while I'll post something in this blog that's not necessarily weather related.  And so it is in this case.  My wife & I 'dropped' my oldest daughter at college 15 hours away from home back in August. Of all the 'dad moments' so far in my life, this was one of the most emotional. Upon returning to work, things got busy in a hurry due to the tropics & developing 'Dorian'.  So I must admit my work - as is frequently the case - provided a distraction... & also delayed the writing of this post. A little about my oldest daughter: She's our first which is always particularly memorable.  She is an avid, bordering on rabid book reader.... very observant & astute... trusting... trustworthy.... practical... a really big heart... not the most social... a deep yet somewhat private faith... & very tight with Dad :). Thanks to her scholastic abilities, my daughter had plenty of college opportunities both in & out of the state of Florida. She has a keen interest in the sciences & in getting away from home (?) which closely guided her college choice.  Here are a few of my experiences/observations over the last few months during this 'life change' in the Buresh household: * as parents, it's mind boggling trying to make sense of all the financial aid & details, deadlines, & digital (used to be paper in the old days) work * her HS graduation ceremony was pretty fun & nostalgic with lots of family & friends. When the graduation party was over & the last of the family folk exited, I was thinking there's still 3 months before my daughter leaves.  It's a summer of fun & memories ahead.  The latter was true but the three months flew by! * some of that fun included a visit to the campus for orientation in June.  We met a lot of friendly people, & I came away feeling more comfortable with my daughter's decision.  And I thought: 'to be going to college again!'. * 'Florida Prepaid' is one of the college tuition bargains going.... IF your kid stays in Fl.! (you do not lose that money, however) * We were pleasantly surprised that our daughter diligently picked up & cleaned her room prior to departure in Aug. :) * it was interesting to watch my daughter plan her schedule including work while also saying her good-byes to friends & family in the weeks leading up to her leaving home. * my daughter & I had a nice steak dinner planned at one of her favorite restaurants the Sunday before she was to leave - just the  two of us.  In my head there was so much I had planned... so much I wanted to say.  So much so that I even wrote down some notes & hid the piece of paper in my pocket.  Why is it something like that never goes quite as planned?? * she flew to her University a week early because of more orientation * so my wife & I drove out my daughter's stuff (girls = lots of clothes!) leaving in the evening on an overnight road trip that would get us to our daughter by late morning the next day * we paid a bit extra to be able to move her in a day early - well worth the fee which was recommended by a Facebook parents page my wife is a part of.  We highly recommend parents sign up for such a group if their kids are going off to college - lots of handy hints.  Of course, a lot of 'dribble' too but you just have to filter through what's worthwhile & practical vs. what is not. * there were a LOT of sweaty parents on the moving days.  In fact, it reminded me of Disney World.  Yelling & tired but caring parents, impatient & sometimes crying kids. :) * quite the people watching opportunity!  & a stark difference between the amount of stuff the ladies are moving in vs. the gents.  I'm not sure how some of the students got multiple pickup loads or one of those mini U-Hauls squeezed into a dorm room!  But while watching all this, I decided I'm glad I'm not the one that's a freshman in college. * we moved, scrubbed & cleaned for hours!  How is it that there are cleaning crews for the dorms these days??  Once every two weeks the bathrooms are cleaned for them.  Seriously?? * 'campus town' reminded me of the fun of old days :)  On our way out of town, my wife & I stopped at a few restaurants to buy gift cards which we sent to our daughter in a card a few weeks later. * one of our friends told us they give their college daughter(s) cash every month.  I was like 'really?'.  We have to provide cash too??!! So we do drop a few dollars into her account each month but not a lot.  That totally screws up my nearly constant mantra to them: 'Money doesn't grown on trees!'.  I feel like this is the start of a teenager officially being independent & responsible.  She's also 'scoring' some cash from time to time courtesy her grandparents. * saying goodbye on that Sunday was nothing short of traumatic.  We took my daughter out for breakfast then walked her up to her dorm room.  We took some pics & traded some idle chit-chat & bad dad jokes. I feel like we lingered as long as we could with the inevitable hanging heavily over us.  When it was 'time'..... I hugged my daughter as hard as one possibly can, as long as I could.  I turned away saying something to the effect 'see ya' later' not wanting her to see my tears.  But she was crying as well, so I decided it was o.k., & I returned to hug & hold her again.  I told her 'this is your chance.  Your time to shine. Go get 'em. Have fun but work hard too.  Be smart. I love you.' -- or at least something along the lines of all that.  * so my wife & I headed out of town in a silent car with still some tears & a pretty deep lump in our throats. During this long drive, we'd be fine talking about something insignificant - often the weather (there were storm clouds!) only to look at one another & begin to tear up again. :) * one of the smarter things we had decided to during this trip was stop at a beach on the way back to Jacksonville for some R & R.  This was a good & necessary recovery period. * something like your first kid going off to college has caused me to really examine - often - the last 18 years of being a dad.  What I did right, what I did wrong - all the events, ballgames, classroom activities, etc. that I made it to..... but also that I missed - usually because of work.   What would I do differently as well as the times I so dearly cherish.   Was I as patient as I could have/should have been? Was I as good a parent as my mom & dad? Did I show her & explain 'things' enough to her so as to be an independent & productive adult? Did I prepare her enough for life's inevitable pitfalls?  And - oh dear - what about boys??!! Photos on my phone that show my daughter as a tiny little baby to now all grown up & such an independent thinker.  Special conversations that grew from the trivial & mundane to something much deeper. So.... in the weeks since we moved our daughter to college, she seems to be very, very happy & truly living the college life.  She was genuinely concerned about hurricane Dorian near our coast as well as how I was doing since she knew I would be working constantly. My wife & I are adjusting & are proud of her.... so far (long ways to go). I think she might miss our dog more than the rest of the family(!).  I still do hate to walk by my daughter's empty & quiet bedroom.   And we have a younger daughter who believes she's now in charge :). Meanwhile.... I'm counting the days to Christmas break. My daughter is in the pic below somewhere(!): Our therapy:
  • The tropics are indeed the topic as we head toward the peak of the hurricane season - Sept. 10th.  About 60% of all Atlantic hurricanes occur between Aug. 20th & Oct. 10th. For the very latest & detailed daily updates, go to 'Talking the Tropics With Mike'. As with every hurricane season: * stay calm * be prepared * be smart * go to the First Alert Hurricane Center online - preps, evacuations routes, maps, graphics, etc. There are many variables & possible outcomes regarding Dorian - path & especially strength.  Check forecasts frequently - at least daily as forecast changes will occur.  Relying on a forecast that days old is not logical. And remember what that 'cone of concern or uncertainty' means.  That cone has everything with the historic track error ranging from the moment the forecast was issued all the way out to 5 days when the avg. error is nearly 200 miles! Be smart, calm & organized BUT not a baby! :) National Hurricane Center average track error starting with 12 hours & ending at the 120 hour forecast from 2014-'18: Ready to roll into fall?!  o.k. - true fall temps. are still a ways off but the averages at JIA: Low / High - 1st: 72 / 89 degrees.... 30th: 66 / 84 degrees Rainfall: 8.19' (wettest month of the year on avg.) Sunrise / Sunset: 1st - 7:03am / 7:50pm.... 30th - 7:19am / 7:13pm - l ose 53 min. of daylight
  • The 'Buresh Blog' will be on vacation :) for a few days.... next update will be the week of Aug. 26th.... Of course, the tropics could always have different ideas.  Every single day through the hurricane season I update the 'Talking the Tropics With Mike' * here *. Speaking of the tropics.... it was 15 years ago that a blitzkrieg of sorts developed over the Atlantic Basin.  From the first week of Aug. through the end of Sept., 9 named storms formed, 5 of which hit Fl. Tropical storm Bonnie made landfall in the Panhandle on Aug. 12th dropping an F-2 tornado on the northwest side of Jacksonville... Cat. 4 hurricane Charley followed the next day on the SW coast of Fl... hurricanes Frances & Jeanne (more than 3,000 deaths in Haiti) made landfall at the exact same spot on the east coast just a few weeks apart.... & mighty hurricane Ivan hit Pensacola & ravaged the Western Panhandle later in Sept.  To say the 2004 hurricane season had a lasting impact on Fl. would be an understatement.  Consider: (1) hurricane days (like snow days up north) were added to school district calendars & remain a fixture for all school districts to this day. (2) the hurricane deductible was born & is maintained by most Fl. insurance companies to this day. The implication: if a named storm does damage to one's property, a hurricane deductible has to be paid (usually far higher than the standard deductible) before insurance kicks in & pays. (3) the '04 season was the first time since hurricane Andrew that upgraded building codes were tested.  The results were very positive.  And it was 50 years ago the weekend of Aug. 17-18, 1969 - that intense Cat. 5 hurricane Camille hit the Central Gulf Coast roaring ashore near Bay St. Louis, Mississippi during the middle of the night. The relatively small but violent hurricane is one of only 4 (in addition to Labor Day hurricane, 1935... Andrew, 1992... Michael, 2018) Cat. 5 hurricanes to ever make landfall on U.S. soil. The Mobile N.W.S. has an informative online write-up * here *.... vintage photos from the Times-Picayune * here *.   Speaking of El Nino, '04.... NOAA has officially called it 'over'.  There is still some water left near the Western & Central equatorial Pacific but water has noticeably cooled to the east as can be seen in the image below.  So we will need to watch for a potentially more active mid to late hurricane season given this scenario IF all other things are equal (favorable for development).   Forecasts below for a neutral state vs. El Nino & vs. La Nina into spring, 2020 with a model trend of slightly positive ENSO state but still generally below the El Nino threshold: The mid August skies have delivered recently! First pic below from Lauren Jackson Romeo, Vilano Beach - iridescent pileus clouds! The rainbow effect is caused by the ice crystals in the anvil/high level part of the 'thunderhead' (cumulonimbus cloud), reflecting & refracting the sunlight. Randy Harris, St. Augustine: Masyn Warner: 0 Lightning Sun. evening struck the runway at JIA!: 1 Jerome Smith, Jax Beach - Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds! These uncommon clouds are usually difficult to photograph because the formation does not last long.  Caused by differing wind speeds at different levels of the atmosphere. Erin Hires, Bryceville - crepuscular rays!  Caused by the clouds low on the horizon creating shadows as the sun rises. August/early Sept. night skies from Sky & Telescope:   Aug. 24 (dawn): The waning crescent Moon, in Taurus, is just 2° from the red giant star Aldebaran. Aug. 28 (dawn): The sliver of the waning crescent Moon is in or near the Beehive star cluster in Cancer.   Sep. 5 (evening): The first-quarter Moon and Jupiter hang in the south-southwest above Antares, the Scorpion’s heart. Sep. 6 (dusk): The Moon, brilliant Jupiter, and dimmer Saturn grace the sky above the tail of Scorpius. Sep. 7 (dusk): Saturn sits to the upper right of the waxing gibbous Moon, hanging above the Teapot of Sagittarius.   Moon Phases New Moon: July 31, 11:12 p.m. EDT First Quarter: August 7, 12:31 p.m. EDT Full Moon: August 15, 7:29 a.m. EDT (Full Sturgeon Moon; also Full Red Moon) Last Quarter: August 23, 10:56 a.m. EDT New Moon: August 30, 6:37 a.m. EDT
  • Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University & NOAA have issued their Aug. seasonal update.  Not a whole lot of change. If accurate, the next few months - which includes the peak of the hurricane season - will have 12 more named storms.... 7 hurricanes & two 'major' hurricanes according to CSU with similar - though a pretty wide range - numbers from NOAA.  Of course, no telling at this juncture exactly where storms might go & how strong they might be at landfall but one should always be prepared.  I update 'Talking the Tropics With Mike' every day during the hurricane season. July rainfall numbers were mixed for the local area of NE Fl./SE Ga.  It's typical, of course, to have a wide range, but this rainy season has been especially fickle.  From our Jax N.W.S.: FL   JASPER                      4.45                    FL   BEAUCLERC                             7.54 FL   JACKSONVILLE BEACH                    3.46 FL   LAKE CITY                    12.96                  FL   LAKE CITY 2 E                   11.92        FL   GLEN ST MARY 1 W                5.59                  FL   SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH SHOP     FL   PALM COAST 6 NE          7.49     FL   CRESCENT CITY                         7.19             FL   GAINESVILLE RGNL AP             4.27         FL   HASTINGS 4NE              7.63                                          FL   OCALA                    5.56                                                FL   WHITE SPRINGS 7N               4.28           FL   JACKSONVILLE CRAIG MUNI AP      4.88     FL   JACKSONVILLE INTL AP        5.29              FL   JACKSONVILLE NAS          4.41                                                                     FL   BUNNELL                 8.50                             FL   NW PALM COAST                         7.60 FL   NE PALM COAST                   6.95                           FL   FLAGLER BEACH                 6.07                     GEORGIA: GA   PRIDGEN                              4.51              GA   ALMA BACON CO AP        7.55                                               GA   NAHUNTA 6 NE            4.30                   GA   FARGO 17 NE            5.66                                    GA   BRUNSWICK             2.94                  GA   BRUNSWICK MALCOLM MCKINNON AP       1.72 GA   WOODBINE                     4.82 Doppler radar estimated rainfall for July: Percent of normal July rainfall: Jan. - July, 2019 precipitation is just about right on par for most of Florida, but there has been a large swath of above avg. precip. from the Southwest U.S. to parts of the Northeast U.S.: We're entering the time of year when our seasonal tides are higher than avg. largely dictated by the phase of the moon (full & new).  Any onshore flow (from the east) &/or heavy rain can make tides even higher causing at least minor flooding along & near the coast/intracoastal & the St. Johns River & its tributaries. From Al Sandrik, Jax N.W.S.: Oceanfront: The dates/heights indicated below are for the oceanfront and immediate estuary system near inlets within 2 miles of inlet entrances. Please consult NOAA NOS Tides and Currents for inland estuary points not covered by this document. * Saint Simons Island/Sea Island to Cumberland Island (Saint Simons Light tides +1.0 ft Above MHHW):  August 28-31 Peak 1.603 ft Above MHHW 8/30 September 1-2 Peak 1.248 ft Above MHHW 9/1 September 25-Oct 2 Peak 1.687 ft Above MHHW 9/28 October 25-31 Peak 1.741 ft Above MHHW 10/29 November 25-27 Peak 1.262 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * Amelia Island/Amelia River/Nassau Sound (Fernandina Beach tides +1.0 ft Above MHHW) Dates August 29-31 Peak 1.274 ft Above MHHW 8/30 September 1 Peak 0.999 ft Above MHHW 9/1 Sept. 26 – Oct. 2 Peak 1.431 ft Above MHHW 9/30 November 26 -31 Peak 1.329 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * Nassau Sound to Ponte Vedra Beach (Atlantic Beach tides +1.0 ft Above MHHW) Dates Peak Value August 30 Peak 1.010 ft Above MHHW 8/30 Sept. 27 – Oct. 2 Peak 1.327 ft Above MHHW 9/30 October 26 – 30 Peak 1.434 ft Above MHHW 10/28 November 25-27 Peak 1.137 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * Ponte Vedra Beach to Flagler Beach (St Augustine Beach tides +0.75 ft Above MHHW). Including the City of St Augustine and Davis Shores. Dates Peak Value Peak Date Aug. 28 – Sept. 2 Peak 1.230 ft Above MHHW 8/30 Sept. 25 – Oct. 3 Peak 1.367 ft Above MHHW 9/30 October 25-31 Peak 1.505 ft Above MHHW 10/29 November 24-28 Peak 1.232 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * River/Estuary Areas City of Brunswick (Howe St Pier +1.00 ft Above MHHW) Dates Peak Value Peak Aug. 28-Sept. 3 Peak 1.549 ft Above MHHW 8/31 Sept. 26-Oct. 2 Peak 1.902 ft Above MHHW 9/2 October 26-31 Peak 1.975 ft Above MHHW 10/28 November 24-28 Peak 1.537 ft Above MHHW 11/26 * St Marys/Kings Bay (KBNSB +0.75 ft Above MHHW) Dates Peak Value Peak Date Aug. 28-Sept. 1 Peak 1.137 ft Above MHHW 8/30 Sept. 27-Oct. 1 Peak 1.035 ft Above MHHW 9/30 October 27-30 Peak 1.155 ft Above MHHW 10/28 November 24-28 Peak 1.102 ft Above MHHW 11/26 December 24-26 Peak 0.846 ft Above MHHW 12/25 * St. Johns River. (Southbank Riverwalk +0.75 ft Above MHHW). Note: The St Johns River High astronomical tides go through cycles where the daily high tides are at or above MHHW for the period August 22nd to December 13th. So anytime during that cycle a northeaster or sustained heavy rainfall can influence water levels. The dates below are just the dates that have the highest astronomical tides in the river and thus the potential flooding is given a head start. Dates Peak Value Peak Date Sept. 25-Oct. 3 Peak 0.914 ft Above MHHW 9/27 October 8-13 Peak 0.822 ft Above MHHW 10/10 October 17-31 Peak 1.043 ft Above MHHW 10/28
  • Talking the Tropics With Mike' - updated every single day during the hurricane season! After a hot start to July - the avg. temp. was nearly 3 degrees above avg. in mid July.... a big turn-around with 9 straight days below avg. leveling the 'playing field' in what will end up being a July that was only slightly above avg.  Once again - there's no such thing as 'normal'  in the weather world :) So as we move into Aug..... two weather 'things' stand out in my mind.  The avg. high temp. dips below 90 degrees by late in the month & we LOSE 48 min. of daylight(!).  Averages at JIA for August: Low / High: 1st: 73 / 92 degrees..... 31st: 72 / 89 degrees Rainfall: 6.80' Sunrise / Sunset: 1st - 6:45am / 8:21pm.... 31st - 7:03am / 7:51pm > -48 min. Last week - week of July 24th - I examined building codes for Northeast Fl. as it relates to hurricanes.  Interestingly.... Jacksonville & nearby areas have some of the lowest building codes in Florida.  The million dollar question is 'are we tempting fate'?  Yes - we have the lowest percent chance in all of Fl. of being hit by a Cat. 3 or stronger hurricane BUT that chance is NOT zero.  My story begins at Florida International U. where there is a state of the art wind machine - WOW - 'Wall of Wind'.  The story ends with an examination of building codes as it relates to high winds.  It's often been said that mitigation & preparation is the key to resiliency after a storm.  You can find the story * here *. Florida wind speed building codes: For Jacksonville & the NE Fl. coastline.... a hurricane comes within 50 miles - on average - every 12 - 16 years.  The last hurricane to make such a close approach was Matthew when the eye's closest approach was 45 miles offshore of Jacksonville Beach.  The last hurricane with an eye that truly crossed our coast - 'Dora' in 1964 - 55 years ago(!). 'WOW' -  Wall of Wind: With talented videographer Joel Lotz.....

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  • FBI toxicology reports ruled out foul play in the deaths of at least three U.S. tourists to the Dominican Republic, the State Department said Friday. >> Read more trending news  The bureau assisted with the toxicology tests of three of at least nine Americans who fell ill and died while visiting the Caribbean destination earlier this year, CNN reported.  Specifically, the FBI determined Nathaniel Holmes, Cynthia Day and Miranda Schaup-Werner each died of natural causes, findings consistent with those of Dominican Republic authorities, USA Today reported. Schaup-Werner, 41, of Pennsylvania, died in May at the Grand Bahia Principe in La Romana, with Dominican authorities attributing her death to a heart attack. Meanwhile, Holmes, 63, and Day, 49, were found dead in their shared hotel room at the Playa Nueva Romana resort. In that case, Dominican authorities ruled the Maryland couple died of respiratory failure and pulmonary edema, USA Today reported. A State Department official confirmed to CNN that relatives of the deceased have been notified of the FBI results and issued the following statement: “Our condolences and sympathy go out to the families during this difficult time.” USA Today reportedThe test results have also been shared with Dominican authorities and ruled out several potential causes of death for the Maryland couple, including methanol poisoning from tainted alcohol, USA Today reported. 
  • Colorado authorities have arrested a man in connection with the gruesome Thursday morning discovery of an unidentified woman’s body inside a suitcase in a dumpster. >> Read more trending news  Pueblo Police Sgt. Frank Ortega confirmed to KKTV Anthony Cuevas was taken into custody Friday evening and is expected to face a charge of first-degree murder. According to a news release issued by the Pueblo Police Department, Cuevas, 36, also faces a warrant for violating his parole. His wife, Melanie Ann Cuevas, also 36, was arrested on a criminal impersonation warrant. KKTV reported a suspect police now believe was Cuevas was caught on surveillance footage in the area of the dumpster about three hours before the woman’s body was found. In the video, the suspect can be seen taking the suitcase out of the car’s trunk and tossing it into the dumpster. Although the woman’s identity has not been made public, police have confirmed she had a very distinctive clown tattoo and was found wearing a U.S. Air Force T-shirt and M&M candy shorts, KMGH reported. Read more here and here.
  • A suspect is in custody following an early-morning shooting on the Grambling State University campus Friday that left two people, including a police officer, wounded. >> Read more trending news  Princeston Andre Adams, 19, is charged with two counts of attempted second-degree murder. Louisiana state troopers arrested the former Grambling student and Shreveport, Louisiana, resident Friday morning, KSLA reported. Louisiana State Police Trooper Michael Reichardt told KNOE the shooting happened at a party outside of the Frederick C. Hobdy Assembly Center. Reichardt also confirmed the wounded officer was shot in the leg, but his injuries are considered non-life-threatening. The second victim – identified only as a non-student – was shot twice in the torso and remains at North Louisiana Medical Center in Shreveport for treatment of life-threatening injuries, the station reported. Grambling State University President Rick Gallot issued the following statement: “Our goal at Grambling State University is to provide a safe, enjoyable environment for our students. To help in this effort, we will work with our student life and campus safety teams to grow our policies and procedures to better accommodate our student body. Our hearts and prayers go out to those impacted by last night’s events both directly and indirectly. I encourage all of our campus and community to support Louisiana State Police in their investigation by calling (318) 274-2222 with any related information.” Adams’ bond has been set at $1 million, KSLA reported. Original report: Authorities are investigating an early-morning shooting on the Grambling State University campus that left two people injured, including a police officer, KTBS reported. According to a safety update issued by university officials, campus authorities responded around 1:30 a.m. to an indoor firearm discharge at the Frederick C. Hobdy Assembly Center. Two individuals – including the officer and a non-student – were transported to North Louisiana Medical Center for treatment of injuries. The severity of the injuries suffered was not immediately available. According to KTBS, witnesses told officers on the scene a suspect fled campus following the shooting, and the Louisiana State Police Department will continue investigating. Anyone with any details related to the incident is encouraged to call (318) 274-2222. 
  • Police in Indiana charged a 24-year-old woman with reckless homicide after a crash at a school bus stop in Rochester left three children dead and one severely injured in October 2018. >> Read more trending news Update 9:04 p.m. EDT Oct. 18: Alyssa Shepherd was found guilty Friday of felony reckless homicide in the Oct. 30, 2018 car accident that left Alivia Stahl, 9, and her twin 6-year-old brothers Mason and Xzavier dead and Maverik Lowe severely injured, WNDU reported.  Original report: The children were crossing the street to get to their Tippecanoe Valley School Corporation bus around 7:15 a.m. Tuesday when they were struck by a 2017 Toyota Tacoma driven by Alyssa Shepherd, according to Indiana State Police. Police said that at the time of the crash, the school bus was stopped in front of a mobile home park with its stop arm down and lights flashing. Three Mentone Elementary School students, identified as 6-year-old twins Xzavier Ingle and Mason Ingle and their sister Alivia Stahl, 9, died at the scene. A fourth child, identified as 11-year-old Tippecanoe Valley Middle School student Maverik Lowe, was airlifted to a hospital with multiple broken bones and internal injuries, police said. He was last listed in serious condition. >> 3 children killed, 1 injured while boarding school bus in Indiana “It’s everybody’s responsibility to make sure our children get to and from school safely, and when it doesn’t happen, which it did not in this case, it’s heartbreaking,” Indiana State Police Sgt. Tony Slocum told WSBT. “I haven’t seen troopers cry in a long time, but I saw that today.” Xzavier, Mason and Alivia’s uncle, Elgin Ingle, told WNDU that his family is grappling with the magnitude of their loss. “(My brother) didn’t lose one kid. He lost all of his kids,” Ingle said. “What do you tell your little brother? How do you tell your little brother it's going to get better? You can't.' He described his nephews to WRTV as 'shy at first' but, 'Once you got past the shyness, the two boys were a life spark. They were nonstop, happy, go-fast, jumpy boys.' He said Alivia was a go-getter and 'the kindest child you'll ever meet.' 'My two nephews and my niece were taken from me because somebody didn't pay attention,' Ingle told WRTV. 'How could you look away from the road? Everybody knows buses stop at this time of day.'  Authorities charged Shepherd with three counts of reckless homicide and one count of passing a school bus with the stop arm extended, causing injury. She was booked into Fulton County Jail Tuesday. Police continue to investigate.
  • A Kansas City man has been arrested in the killing Monday of a transgender woman, the second to die in the city so far this year and at least the 20th across the nation, authorities said. The Associated Press reported that Brianna “BB” Hill, 30, also of Kansas City, was shot around 11:30 a.m. Monday. Hill, who went by Breonna Be’Be Hill on Facebook, was dead when officers arrived at the scene. >> Read more trending news Kansas City police Capt. Tim Hernandez told the AP that the alleged shooter, whose name has not been released, remained at the scene and was taken into custody. As of Wednesday, no charges had been filed, the news service said. Hernandez said he could not discuss the motive for the shooting but said it was not related to Hill’s status as a transgender woman, the AP reported. Hill is the second transgender woman killed so far this year in Kansas City, records show. According to the Human Rights Campaign, she is the 21st transgender woman or gender nonconforming person to die by violence across the country in 2019. The Advocate puts the nationwide number of slain transgender women at 20, however, noting some confusion about the gender identity of one victim, Jamagio Jamar Berryman. “Transgender Americans are facing an epidemic of violence,” the Advocate reported, citing 24 known killings of transgender Americans in 2018. The magazine said the number could be higher “as, undoubtedly, some victims were misgendered by police or media, or their deaths not reported at all.” “The majority of victims in any year tracked by The Advocate have been women of color,” the magazine stated. Click here to see a report by the Advocate on all the transgender people killed so far in 2019. Hill, who was black, was killed the day before jury selection was set to begin in Dallas for Edward Dominic Thomas, 29, who is accused of beating another black, transgender woman, Muhlaysia Booker, in April following a fender bender outside an apartment complex in the Oak Cliff section of the city. Booker, whose beating was caught on video, spoke publicly at a rally the week after the assault to call for justice in her case, the AP reported. The 23-year-old was found shot to death May 18 on a Dallas street. Kendrell Lavar Lyles, 33, is charged with murder in the killing and is a suspect in the homicides of two additional women. >> Related story: Suspect arrested in death of transgender Dallas woman and 2 others, police say The Dallas Morning News reported Wednesday that Thomas’ defense is arguing that Booker, who his attorneys call by her birth name and describe with male pronouns, brought the fight upon herself. Transgender actress and activist Laverne Cox spoke to Buzzfeed earlier this year about the rash of violence against the transgender community. “Your attraction to me as a trans woman is not a reason to kill me,” Cox said in an interview on BuzzFeed News’ Twitter morning show, “AM to DM.” “There’s this whole sort of myth that trans women are out there tricking people, that they deserve to be murdered, and that’s not the case.” Berryman, who also went by Ja’leyah-Jamar Berryman, was killed last month just across the Missouri state line in Kansas City, Kansas. Though area activists initially identified Berryman as a transgender woman, Berryman’s family released a video on social media clarifying that he identified as a gender nonconforming man. Berryman was found shot in the street around 2:30 p.m. Sept. 13 near 60th Street and Leavenworth Road, according to the Kansas City (Kansas) Police Department. Berryman died a short time later at an area hospital. Two days later, investigators released images of a person of interest and a white 2006 Pontiac G6 connected to the case. KMBC reported that the car was found abandoned in Kansas City, Missouri, three days after Berryman was slain. The person of interest, believed to be an ex-boyfriend of Berryman’s, has not been identified by police, the Advocate said. No arrests have been reported in Berryman’s death. Berryman’s cousin posted about his death on Facebook. “Ja’leyah-Jamar didn’t ask for this life,” Adriana Sanders wrote, according to the magazine. “No one can control who they love. God made us to live and love and to grow. It’s not our fault as a transgender woman or a homosexual man to want to live a normal life, wanting to be in love have a family, build your own legacy. “Because a man could not accept who he was as himself and individual, he felt the need to take my cousin’s life.” Berryman’s obituary said he “loved the artistry of designing hair, playing his game, playing with his nieces and nephews, nagging his siblings and spending quality time with his daughter, Ja’mya (Berryman).” Ja’mya was 5 years old when she lost her parent, KSHB in Kansas City reported. “She keeps, like (saying), ‘I want my daddy, where my daddy at?’ And it’s just, like, how do you answer that question to a 5-year-old?' Ronnie Gates, a friend and former longtime boyfriend of Berryman’s, told the news station. Berryman’s mother, along with other family members and friends, mourned Berryman by releasing red and black balloons in his honor three days after his killing. They gathered at the intersection where he was found. His young daughter was pictured sitting quietly on the sidewalk, wearing a backpack and gazing at the balloons near the curb. “That’s Jamar’s baby. She is now without a father,” a family member captioned the photo. “I’ll never be the same,” Berryman’s mother, Jennifer Gibson, told KSHB. “I’ll never be the same.” The Human Rights Campaign, which touts itself as the nation’s largest LGBTQ civil rights organization, issued a statement following Berryman’s slaying. “This epidemic of violence that disproportionately targets trans people of color -- particularly black trans women -- must cease,” read a post on the organization’s Twitter feed. Likewise, HRC officials spoke out this week about Hill’s killing. “Hill, like all of us, had hopes, dreams, aspirations and plans for the future,” HRC spokesperson Elliott Kozuch told Newsweek. “She had family and friends who are mourning this senseless loss, a loss that is part of a larger epidemic of violence against the transgender community in this country, spurred by a toxic mix of transphobia, racism, misogyny and unchecked gun violence.” Kozuch said while the transgender community has protections in employment, housing and public accommodations in Kansas City, there are no state nondiscrimination protections for the marginalized community. Transgender people are also not among the groups covered by Missouri’s hate crimes legislation. According to HRC data, all but five states across the country have laws addressing hate crimes, but the laws vary greatly in who they protect. Fifteen states do not address sexual orientation or gender identity in their hate crime laws, the HRC shows. See the Human Rights Campaign's map of hate crime laws in the U.S. below. Members of the LGBTQ community mourned Hill’s death on social media. “Rest in power, beloved,” one woman wrote on Facebook, adding a broken heart emoji. “Brianna Hill. #SayHerName.” Transgender actress, singer, teacher and activist Alexandra Billings also spoke out about Hill and every other transgender woman who has been killed or faces violence for who they are. “My sisters, I see you,” Billings wrote on Facebook. “I am with you because I am one of you, and we will survive this. Our government will not continue to ignore us, and our allies will speak up. We will revolt and we will rise. We are made of sturdy stuff. We have lived through the centuries and it will take more than a few violent men to eradicate us from the human experience. “We are part of this world and we deserve to be here. We will not let this stand.” Besides the death of Berryman, Hill’s slaying in Kansas City also comes on the heels of the June 25 killing of Brooklyn Lindsey, 32, who was found dead on the porch of an abandoned home on Spruce Avenue, court records show. She died of multiple gunshot wounds. Neighbors, who didn’t identify themselves out of fear of retaliation, told KCTV Lindsey had been badly beaten before they heard the gunshots that killed her. According to court records, investigators recovered five shell casings from around Lindsey’s body and tested the casings for DNA evidence. A profile was obtained and entered into CODIS, the FBI’s Combined DNA Index System, which matched the genetic material to Marcus S. Lewis. Investigators learned that Lewis was in a relationship with the owner of a black Chevy Impala. The car was spotted by license plate readers driving in the area of the shooting around the time that the Kansas City Police Department received a report of shots fired about four blocks from where Lindsey’s body was found. Read the probable cause statement in the Brooklyn Lindsey slaying below. Charging Document in Brooklyn Lindsey Homicide by National Content Desk on Scribd Lewis, 41, was arrested in July and indicted last month on charges of second-degree murder, armed criminal action and unlawful possession of a firearm, court records show. Court records, which identify Lindsey as male and by her given name instead of her chosen one, show that Lewis told detectives he shot Lindsey after she propositioned him, “attempting to solicit a date,” and would not leave him alone after he declined her advances. He said he sold the gun, which he had bought earlier in the day, to an unknown person after the homicide. “l believe that Marcus Lewis poses a danger to the community or to any other persons because he is a habitual unregistered sex offender,” Detective Ryan Taylor wrote in a probable cause statement. “He is under investigation for aggravated domestic violence involving a firearm and an armed business robbery involving a firearm.” Court records indicate Lewis has also been indicted in that case. He remained in the Jackson County Jail Friday, awaiting trial. The unlawful firearm possession charge stems from Lewis’ April 1998 conviction of first-degree statutory rape, a felony in Missouri. As a convicted felon, he is not permitted to have a firearm. Lindsey was described by friends as an activist who worked with organizations like the Kansas City Anti-Violence Project. The organization spoke out last month after Berryman’s death. “As we hold space to remember and uplift Ja’Leyah, we must also recognize the factors at play that contribute to the dramatically increased risk of violence that trans women of color, especially black trans women, face every day,” a post on the group’s Facebook page read. “Restrictions on basic needs and services like housing, employment, safe streets, healthcare and protection under the law are just some barriers that put our sisters in harm’s way daily. “The discriminatory and violent systems that perpetuate violence against transgender women of color are a direct result of bias from within and outside our own communities. Ja’leyah’s light shone to a select few, but we will let her light shine on all of us today.” Kris Wade, with the Justice Project Kansas City, told CNN she knew Lindsey well and had helped her for more than a decade. She described Lindsey as a “sweetheart,” and an intelligent woman who did not come from the streets, but sometimes ended up there. “She felt that she had not lost her humanity out there,” Wade told CNN. Wade said Lindsey, who had been brutally beaten and hospitalized just weeks before her death, needed to get off the street, but Justice Project was unable to find her a bed. “We didn’t have any money to put her up,” Wade said. Lindsey died at the same intersection where a Hispanic transgender woman, Tamara Dominguez, 36, was run over and killed Aug. 15, 2015. The driver of the truck, Luis Sanchez, ran over Dominguez repeatedly, according to witnesses. Members of the LGBTQ community condemned the “atrocious” act in the days after Dominguez’s death. “There’s this horrible dark underbelly of hatred that goes on and on and on and on and it must stop,” Caroline Gibbs, director of the Transgender Institute of Kansas City, told KCTV at the time. Dominguez’s brother, Alberto Dominguez, spoke to the news station through a friend, Juan Rendon, who translated his Spanish to English. “He just want to say to the person that did that to her, that he (Alberto) would forgive them for what he did to her,” Rendon translated as Dominguez started to cry, the news station reported. “We are not here to judge nobody, and he (Alberto) hopes that person really feels bad for what he did.” Sanchez, who was initially charged with murder, was convicted of voluntary manslaughter in December 2018 and sentenced to 18 years in prison. Now 31, he is serving his sentence at the Jefferson City Correctional Center, according to the Missouri Department of Corrections. Tamara Dominguez was loved, her brother told KCTV. “He doesn’t know she has family. She had her mom. She had her nephews, brothers and sisters. That person didn’t think about what he did,” Rendon translated.

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