UNF poll: Affordability is biggest concern facing Florida voters in 2026

The survey of likely midterm voters shows Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly by six points.

Jacksonville, Fl — Eight months before Florida’s pivotal election, we’re getting a snapshot of the favorites.

A statewide poll by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab shows Republican Byron Donalds up by six percentage points against David Jolly in the race for Governor.

Republican Senator Ashley Moody is up by eight points against Democratic challenger Alexander Vindman, and seven against Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville).

When asked about the most important problem facing Florida, 50% said affordability and the cost of living.

12% said political division and polarization, and 8% said immigration.

Favorability Ratings:

President Donald Trump received 45% favorability, with 48% finding him unfavorable.

57% of Independents find Trump unfavorable, with 31% favorable.

Among respondents who indicated they voted for Trump in the 2024 election, 90% find him favorable, and 8% unfavorable.

Governor Ron DeSantis fared significantly better than the President, with 52% indicating a favorable opinion and 42% unfavorable.

Favorability among Republicans is somewhat higher for DeSantis, with 87% favorable and 7% unfavorable, compared to Trump with 83% favorable and 15% unfavorable.

Ballot Initiatives and Pending Legislation:

Respondents were told an amendment to the Florida State Constitution has been proposed that would phase out taxes on homestead property, other than those directed to schools, and would prohibit local governments from reducing total funding for law enforcement.

56% expressed support for this amendment, with 35% opposed.

Support for the amendment is much higher among Republicans (76%) than Democrats (27%) or Independents (56%).

Respondents were also asked if they support or oppose the rollout of artificial intelligence (AI), given its significant increase in usage in the past year.

The total sample of respondents was evenly split in overall support and opposition, each with 48%.

AI, Guns, Recall Elections:

Respondents were asked about a proposed Florida bill that would regulate the use and application of AI in certain contexts, such as requiring chatbots to notify users that they are interacting with AI, prohibiting the alteration of images to create sexually explicit content, and restricting AI interactions for minors. A total of 86% said they would support this bill.

Respondents were told that Florida state statutes allow counties and municipalities to remove local elected officials from office by petitioning for a recall election.

When asked if they would support extending this policy to include those serving in the legislature or statewide office, an overwhelming majority expressed support (83%), with just 10% opposed.

Support for the state of Florida prohibiting firearms at protests and demonstrations is also consistently high across the political spectrum, with the greatest support among independents, at 66%.

Republican support for such a policy (64%) is roughly equal to Democrats, with 63% supporting.

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