JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — This blog is written & updated weekly by *me* - Mike Buresh.
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See & read updates every day at “Talking the Tropics With Mike”. The streak of the latest to have a hurricane develop over the Atlantic Basin in the satellite era - since 1966 has ended with “Isaias” over the Gulf. The previous record was Sept. 11 in 2002 (“Gustav”) & 2013 (“Humberto”). Only two years - since 1851 - are known to have not ever had at least one Atlantic hurricane - 1907 & 1914.
Isaias might conjure up some memories from the last Isaias in (Aug.) 2020 (recall that names are repeated every 6 years unless a name is retired). The storm was weak while moving northward off the coast of Florida but strengthened northeast of Jacksonville & made landfall as a Cat. 1 hurricane near Myrtle Beach. As Isaias moved north/northeast, flooding & tornadoes occurred from the Carolina’s to the Mid-Atlantic to New England. The 2020 version of Isaias was a classic Cape Verde tropical wave that moved over the Eastern Atlantic in late July... became a tropical cyclone east of the Lesser Antilles before turning sharply northward.
This year’s version of Isaias formed over the Western Gulf near the western end of a stalled front as t’storms “festered” for several days. Surface low pressure eventually evolved & was upgraded to a tropical depression Tue. Oct. 6th & to a tropical storm early Wed. Oct. 7th. The development also nicely correlated with a MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) pulse spreading over the Atlantic which is often a favorable pattern for tropical activity despite the ongoing strong El Nino & resulting strong wind shear.
Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin:
It was 10 years ago that hurricane Matthew move north just off the coast of Northeast Florida. Matthew was the most significant hurricane for NE Florida/SE Georgia in - arguably - 12 years (Frances & Jeanne directly impacted the local area in 2004). The beach took a beating with severe beach erosion + downed trees & power lines that extended well inland with power out for some areas for up to 5 days. A recap of the hurricane & local impacts * here * in the “Buresh Blog”.
Vilano Beach erosion:
I-10 & Cassat right after Matthew:
Toppled tree in Neptune Beach from Matthew’s winds:
After a long term severe drought that began in September, 2025, Jacksonville & surrounding areas have suddenly turned soggy with rainfall at JIA the first week of Oct. more than twice the average for the entire month(!). The cause was a slow moving cool front & had nothing yet to do with Isaias. Some parts of SE Georgia have had more than a foot of rain & parts of Northeast Florida had as much as 11+ inches. An overall wet weather pattern can be expected through the upcoming winter - at least - thanks to the El Nino.
Another byproduct of the strong ongoing El Nino - a strong Kelvin Wave. There’s been quite a bit of coverage - with some exaggeration I might add - of this natural phenomenon that’s getting some extra “oomph” from the El Nino - a warming of the ocean water near the equatorial Pacific. A Kelvin wave is not literally a wave but rather travels underwater over a large area & only raise sea level slightly. A Kelvin wave spreads warm water from west to east along the equator that then spreads out to the south along the South American coast & to the north along the Mexico & Western U.S. coast. The “trapped” water is warmer than average & can raise sea level about 6 inches to a foot during a stronger El Nino. While not singularly significant, the boost in sea level can cause add to higher than average tides &/or waves during storms or during the annual king tides during the fall.
Image below: Dillon Amaya/North Carolina State University.
October night skies (Sky & Telescope):
Oct. 14 (dusk): Low in the southwest, the waxing crescent Moon hangs 1½° to the lower left of Antares, the smoldering heart of the Scorpion.
Oct. 21–22 (night): The Orionid meteor shower is expected to peak. The waxing gibbous Moon won’t interfere with viewing once it sets.
Oct. 27 (evening): The Moon, two days past full, is in the Pleiades as they rise above the east-northeastern horizon.
Oct. 31 (dawn): Face southeast before sunrise to spot the waning gibbous Moon with Pollux about 5° to its right. Jupiter and Mars shine farther to the lower left.
Nov. 1: Daylight-saving time ends at 2 a.m. for most of the U.S. and Canada.
Nov. 2 (morning): Face east to catch the delightful sight of the waning crescent Moon leading Mars, Jupiter, and Regulus above the horizon. The quartet forms a ragged line some 13° long.
Nov. 7 (dawn): Venus rises in the east-southeast shepherded by the almost-new Moon 1½° to its lower right.
Moon Phases
Last Quarter Oct. 3 9:25 a.m. EDT
New Moon Oct. 10 11:50 a.m. EDT
First Quarter Oct. 18 2:13 p.m. EDT
Full Moon Oct. 26 12:12 a.m. EDT (Hunter’s Moon)