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“Talking the Tropics With Mike” is updated every during the hurricane season.
Speaking of the tropics - coinciding with the *average* beginning of the Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia “wet season” - the Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1st (through Nov. 30th). Preseason forecasts are for below average activity across the Atlantic largely due to a developing El Nino - warming of the equatorial Pacific water temps. - that could become strong by mid to late hurricane season. El Nino’s typically help cause stronger shear across the Atlantic Basin - the enemy of tropical cyclones. But realize being prepared is a must & that there have been hurricanes that have hit Florida during El Nino seasons.
For the sixth season in a row, saildrones will be used to help forecast hurricanes. From Saildrone, Inc.:
Saildrone is heading back into hurricane season, deploying 10 Saildrone Explorer USVs to support NOAA’s ongoing research into hurricane rapid intensification. The USVs will operate across the western tropical/subtropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America, collecting real-time ocean and atmospheric data in and around tropical cyclones.
This resumes one of Saildrone’s longest-running NOAA partnerships, which began in 2021. Since then, Saildrone USVs have intercepted 21 named hurricanes and tropical storms on 46 occasions and spent more than 400 days actively monitoring storms in coordination with NOAA’s broader observing network.
While NOAA is predicting a “below-normal” Atlantic season, they are still expecting a handful of major hurricanes, and NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham warned the public that “it only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
Image below captured by Saildrone Explorer SD-1083, close to the eyewall of Hurricane Helene on Sept. 26, 2024, in wind gusts up to 84.63 (97.39 mph) knots and waves up to 16 m (52 feet).
And right on cue it would appear our local wet season is going to get going in a timely fashion this year. June through September accounts for more than half our average annual rainfall. And it’s not a moment too soon as JIA rainfall is still more than 16″ below average since Sept. 1 (through May 26).
June averages for Jacksonville (JIA):
D-Day - June 6th - is fast approaching. The weather forecast played a crucial role on the decision to “go”, & that forecast has now “gone” Hollywood.
Of course, technology was nothing like it is today & Allied forecasters relied on sporadic ship reports & some land reports from Britain & Ireland to try to come up with an accurate forecast. Interestingly - German forecasters predicted the weather would be too severe for an Allied attack. The element of surprise - largely thanks to the weather - worked in favor of Allied forces.
“Pressure” depicts the high-stakes 72 hours leading up to D-Day in 1944, when Group Captain James Stagg and multinational team navigated conflicting forecasts to advise General Dwight D. Eisenhower on whether to proceed with the Allied Invasion. Movie trailer: