Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.
Ian is long gone but....
*** With so much rain & ocean water in the “system”, higher than avg. tides will continue through at least the weekend for the intracoastal, St. Johns River & its tributaries. Minor to moderate - but mostly nuisance-type flooding & ponding will occur with each high tide cycle ***
A “blow by blow” of Ian & trying to forecast the hurricane is posted in the “Buresh Blog” - * here *.
Though trending lower than last Fri./Sat, higher than avg. tides will continue to produce some ponding/flooding near/at times of high tide along the St. Johns River & its tributaries. Levels will be highest - & most problematic - in Clay/St. Johns & especially Putnam Co. The hydrograph below shows a little recent bump for d’town Jax as yet another crest rolls through the river via the very heavy rain in the headwater basin between Orlando & Melbourne northward to Putnam Co.:
The Atlantic....
The “festering” tropical wave at a very low (south) latitude again (this is where “Ian” tracked & was “born” *BUT* this time the system will continue westward vs. turning northward) was upgraded to tropical depression #13 Thu. night & then to tropical storm “Julia” Fri. morning. Proximity to land + moderate shear should allow for only slow development initially before the wave reaches the Western Caribbean by Sat. where conditions look much more optimal for strengthening. The poorly organized center looked to pass just south of Aruba early Fri. - a rather unusual occurrence (so far south).
So a strengthening hurricane will move into Central America over the weekend/early next week. The window for strengthening will be relatively short over the Southwest Caribbean but Julia should be able to quickly take advantage of favorable shear conditions, very warm water & a good deal of moisture. Indications are a likely hit on the coast of Nicaragua early Sunday. The European model does shows a slightly more south landfall followed by a move to the far E. Pacific relatively intact since Julia crosses a more narrow portion of Central America (vs. the GFS & current NHC forecast track).
A lot of troughing (dips in the jet stream) is over the U.S. but this disturbance will stay far enough south so as to *not* be drawn northward. Heavy rain will gradually diminish across parts of Aruba, the ABC Islands & Northern Venezuela as the storm moves steadily west/northwest.
A Hurricane WARNING is in effect for: San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia... Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas. A Hurricane WATCH is in effect for: Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields... Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Tropical Storm WARNING is in effect for: Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields... Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Tropical Storm WATCH is in effect for: Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca.
Meanwhile... tropical depression #12 developed Tue. afternoon but dissipated Thu. night due to strong, persistent shear. There may be a window of opportunity for #12 to try to reorganize next week over the Central Atlantic (but remaining far out to sea) before getting pulled north then northeast mid to late week over the N. Atlantic while staying far to the east of the U.S.
And a couple of areas to watch in the longer range:
(1) several global forecast models show some gradual low pressure - possibly/probably tropical in nature - over the Bay of Campeche (far SW Gulf of Mexico) which might even come from some remnants of Julia. In any case, the upper level set-up of troughs & ridges will be in flux next week making movement of this disturbance difficult to pinpoint this far out. It would appear some sort of east - even east/northeast - movement will eventually evolve.
(2) The Caribbean - tropical development will be possible late next week & beyond. Given the time of year & the probable location of an upper level trough over or near the Eastern U.S., any Caribbean low pressure/tropical disturbance may very well be drawn some semblance of northward.
Water vapor loop shows pockets of dry air (dark blue) across portions of the Atlantic Basin along with a lot of “swirls” (low pressure) - common as we get deeper into autumn:
October origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. This season so far is well below avg.:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.
2022 names..... “Karl” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Updated Atlantic seasonal forecast from early Aug. - NOAA & CSU:
The East Pacific:
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity:
Weak Indian Ocean tropical cyclone: