JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A new poll of likely voters in Florida shows tight races for governor and U.S. Senate, with Republican candidate Byron Donalds holding a two-point lead over Democrat David Jolly for governor and Republican incumbent Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon by four points for Senate.
The survey, conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, sampled 1,471 likely midterm election voters. Margins in both contests have narrowed notably since the lab’s July poll, which previously showed Donalds leading by five percentage points and Moody holding an eight-point lead.
In the gubernatorial contest, 49% of respondents supported Donalds and 47% favored Jolly, including voters who initially were undecided but leaned toward a candidate after probing. Four % of respondents remained undecided. Jolly held a 16-percentage-point lead among Independents, while 11% of registered Republicans indicated they would vote for Jolly and 5% of Democrats supported Donalds.
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Sean Freeder, UNF faculty director of the research lab and a political science professor, noted that the close race mirrors past Florida elections. “Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race, similar to the race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis in 2018, which was won by less than a percentage point,” Freeder said. “Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising. This increased competitiveness can primarily be attributed to national-level effects – midterm elections are generally difficult for the party of the president, especially given Trump’s near-historic low approval ratings. Furthermore, Donalds’ attempt to win over Black voters does not appear to be working, as Donalds receives just 10% of their support, only slightly more than Sen. Moody’s 9%, despite not engaging in nearly as much effort.”
Voters also evaluated candidates on key state issues. On data centers, 41% said they trusted Jolly more, compared to 37% for Donalds. Respondents were roughly split on affordability and cost of living, with 43% trusting Jolly and 42% trusting Donalds. On property insurance, 43% expressed trust in Donalds compared to 38% for Jolly. Voter enthusiasm varied between camps, as 77% of Donalds voters described their support as strong compared to 67% of Jolly voters.
“Both Donalds and Moody enjoy a small but real enthusiasm gap among their voters,” Freeder said. “This is perhaps understandable given that former Republican Jolly may be less appealing to Democratic voters further to the left and leftist Nixon may alienate moderate Democrats with her positions on the economy and Israel. It’s possible one candidate may be helping the other by giving each wing of the party at least one major candidate to feel enthusiastic about, therefore driving up Democratic turnout.”
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In the U.S. Senate race, Moody received 49% support among likely voters including leaners, while Nixon received 45%, with 5% undecided. Ten % of registered Republicans backed Nixon, 8% of Democrats supported Moody and Independents favored Nixon by 15 percentage points. Campaign messaging also influenced voters, as 30% of total respondents said Democratic messaging about the Hope Florida grand jury report linking Moody to the misappropriation of public funds made them less likely to vote for her. Meanwhile, 25% said Republican messaging regarding Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to vote for Nixon. “Like Donalds, Moody appears to be in a competitive race, though one that leans more decisively in her favor,” Freeder said. “Independents favor Nixon by 15 points and also appear to be more concerned about Moody’s ties to Hope Florida than Nixon’s ties to socialism. Given the anti-incumbent mood of swing voters, both Donalds and Moody’s success depends upon Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in terms of turnout and enthusiasm.”
The survey also asked voters about Amendment 3, a proposal titled “Increased Homestead Exemption; Lower Cap on Increases in Non-Homestead Property Assessments” that would increase homestead property tax exemptions over time, excluding taxes directed to schools. Fifty % of respondents indicated they would vote yes, falling short of the 60% supermajority required for approval. Thirty % said they would vote no and 14% were undecided. While 32% of Democrats supported the amendment and 23% of Republicans opposed it, opposition was higher among long-term Florida residents than state newcomers. “This appears to be another tight race that will ultimately depend upon which way last-minute undecideds swing,” Freeder said. “Most of these voters would need to vote yes in order to put Amendment 3 above 60%, a challenging but possible outcome. Political science research shows that it’s easier to use messaging to persuade voters on policy more than on candidates, so the last-minute advertising by each campaign could make a big difference.”
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When asked about state priorities, 61% of respondents said environmental protection should be prioritized even at the risk of curbing economic growth, while 26% prioritized economic growth and development. Environmental protection was supported by 78% of Democrats, 62% of Independents and 48% of Republicans. Recent state transplants tended to favor economic growth, whereas long-term residents favored environmental protection. “We find positions on issues like taxes and development versus environment are more traditionally Republican-leaning among those who have moved to Florida in the last ten years compared to those who have lived here longer,” Freeder said. “Despite a belief by some that transplants from other states make the state more blue, this data suggests instead that newcomers may actually be driving Florida’s recent status as a solidly red state.”
Freeder emphasized that final polling figures cannot guarantee specific turnout patterns on Election Day. “Polling ultimately can’t tell us with certainty what turnout will end up looking like,” Freeder said. “Particularly strong turnout by Democrats would make Jolly slightly favored and Nixon more competitive; on the other hand, if Republicans are more enthusiastic than expected, Moody and Donalds could have more comfortable victories.”
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