Jacksonville, Fl. — THE TROPICS:
***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! ****
This blog is written & updated daily by *me* - Mike Buresh.
Tropics threats/impacts for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th. The peak of the season is September 10th.
The average date of the seventh named storm of the season is September 3rd (6 so far)... first Atlantic hurricane avg. date is Aug. 11 (none this season so far).
An area of low pressure was upgraded to t.d. #6 Sat. morning over the far Northeast Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of the Azores & then upgraded to tropical storm “Fay” early Sunday... & degenerated into a post-tropical/remnant low late Tuesday over the open Northeast Atlantic... then upgraded again to a depression late Wed... & to a tropical storm Wed. night. An approaching strong trough of low pressure will cause increasing shear again over the weekend resulting in weakening & eventual complete dissipation. No impact to any land areas.
** Strong - initially non-tropical - low pressure will develop over the Western Atlantic east & northeast of the Carolina’s & may become a hybrid system or try to even take on some tropical characteristics - something for New England & nearby areas to be aware of through the weekend as the low bends sharply west Sunday-Monday. Heavy rain & very strong onshore flow will potentially cause flooding & severe beach erosion for those areas north & northwest of the low which - at the very least - will be a powerful early season nor’easter - & looks to be centered on areas from Chesapeake Bay to New York City to Boston. The initial early development may also impact the coastal Carolina’s with some gusty winds, rough seas & surf & heavy rain.
** A strong tropical wave just off the African coast has the potential to develop, but this disturbance will stay over the far East Atlantic. The wave will turn northward early on & produce some squalls for the Cape Verde Islands through Friday.
2026 has established a record for the satellite era - since 1966 - with no Atlantic hurricanes through & beyond Sept. 11th. Strong wind shear dominates much of the Atlantic Basin - especially south of about 20 degrees N. This is a hallmark of an El Nino season - see the “Buresh Blog” for more on our strong Pacific El Nino. There have been two season - since the mid 1800s - with zero Atlantic hurricanes - 1907 & 1914.
In the Central Pacific.... “Nolo” has formed & will impact the Big Island of Hawaii by Friday & especially Saturday with heavy rain, flooding & strong winds as the potentially ‘major’ hurricane moves near & just south of the Big Island through the day Saturday before turning sharply turning westward.
A Hurricane WATCH: Hawaii County
A Tropical Storm WARNING: Hawaii County
A Tropical Storm WATCH: Maui County
‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below. “Rising” air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).
The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app
FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android
WATCH “Preparing for the Storm”
READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Preparation Guide”
LISTEN “First Alert Weather: Preparing for the Storm”
Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 6 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.
The map below shows the *average* time for a tropical wave coming off Africa to travel west & northwest. Only about 1 in 5 tropical waves - on average - become a tropical cyclone of some sort (depression/storm/hurricane):
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
September Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for September:
Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It’s my personal opinion that there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large “blobs” of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that’s thinning with westward extent but enough of it to make for hazy skies across the Caribbean & - at times - across parts of Florida.
2026 names..... “Gonzalo” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 (the last time this year’s list was used) ... Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 ... Ida in ‘21 ... Fiona & Ian in ‘22... no names were retired in ‘23 for the first time since 2014... Beryl, Helene & Milton in 2024 & Melissa in 2025). The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Hurricane season climatology:
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear - typically the “enemy” of tropical systems:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. Brighter colors = warmer temps.:
Sea surface temps.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East & Central Pacific:
This basin will remain the more active area in ‘26 due to the strong El Nino.
“Polo” went Cat. 5 Tue. after a period of very rapid intensification & then again Wed. night/early Thursday. While there will be - & have been - some impacts - wind, rain, waves - to a portion of the West Central Mexican coast, a “full on hit” will not occur as the major hurricane turns more westward & northwest. There will some impacts to the Baja of California early next week & some of the tropical moisture may stream north & northeast ahead of a cold front from New Mexico & Texas to the Plains & Midwest next week helping to produce heavy rainfall.
“Odalys”:
Central Pacific:
** Heads-up Hawaii as “Nolo” has formed southeast of the state & moves northward toward the Big Island through Saturday.
Hawaii satellite imagery:
Hawaii radar imagery:
Global tropical activity:
West Pacific:
“Surigae”: